With only a month or so before the fantasy playoffs begin, every decision takes on additional importance. Is it me, or is every .500 team playing the league leader this week? In my 10-team family league, four teams are 4-5, two are 5-4, and only I play the top seed. The NFL might not have much parity, but fantasy leagues are still wide open.
If you’re in a position like me, where the season could go either way, your nerves might be on edge this week. When we have the luxury to do so, overthinking is in overdrive. Can we trust recency bias, or are we chasing points? Do we go with matchups or talent? How reproducible are the all-important opportunities and usage patterns?
We’ll never be perfect in real life or fantasy football life, but we can strive to make the best decisions possible. The way forward is logic over emotion, data over hope, and starting everyone against Jacksonville and Carolina. Let’s get to some problematic sit/start choices you may face—and overthink—this weekend and puzzle out the right options.
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QB — Daniel Jones (NYG) or Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)?
Jones is coming off his best game of the year versus Washington. He threw for 174 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 54 yards and another score. Malik Nabers and Theo Johnson were big beneficiaries of the soft matchup and mostly mistake-free play of Jones. For the third time this season, Jones showed that he can be a fantasy asset in the right spot. Facing Carolina, even in Germany, is a great spot. Carolina gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and most in-game points to opponents. The Panthers’ inability to stop the run bodes well for Jones to pad his statline on the ground.
Rodgers is also coming off his best game (vs. Houston) since Week 3, which is a slightly more impressive feat. In week 10, the Jets travel to Arizona to face a Cardinals defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to QBs. The game is expected to be close and high-scoring. Arizona’s defense is equally porous to the pass and rush. Breece Hall’s ability to move the chains should extend drives, ultimately benefiting Rodgers.
Verdict? Give me the rushing upside/floor padding of Jones in the better of two good matchups. The Giants defense also quietly ranks first in sacks per game (3.9) and seventh in opponent time of possession, which could lead to some extra opportunities for the G-Men in Germany this weekend.
RB — Rico Dowdle (DAL) or Tank Bigsby (JAX)?
It’s unclear whether Ezekiel Elliott will be benched again in Week 10, but running the ball has been Dowdle’s domain in the last four games. And his five catches on six targets in each of Dowdle’s previous two games is awfully nice in PPR leagues. Up next for Dallas are the Eagles, not only a division rival but a brutal rushing matchup. Philly is the third-worst RB matchup for fantasy. In Week 6, Dowdle was held to 25 yards against a stout Lions’ rush defense (ranked 7th in opponent rushing yards per game). Dowdle’s role in the passing game gives him a chance to stay hot this weekend, but the Dallas RB is not a sure play.
In Week 9, three Jacksonville running backs combined for fewer than seven fantasy points on 17 total touches. Bigsby was one of them, and not even the best one. What has happened to the Zero RB and waiver warrior savior? It might be time to take off the rose-colored glasses when it comes to Bigsby because this team is flat-out bad. When he’s good, he’s very good – 100-plus yards and two touchdowns good – but Bigsby’s coming off an eight-carry game where he wasn’t targeted (and the Jags were playing from behind most of the time). This week brings the Vikings to town, which is cause for worry. Jacksonville’s defense has little hope of keeping Minnesota off the field, and I expect the Jags to be trailing big again this week.
Verdict? I’ll take Dowdle on a slightly more functional team. I’ll continue to roster Bigsby and start him in good matchups, but I’d rather leave him on the bench this week.
RB — Ray Davis (BUF) or Jordan Mason (SF)?
Starting Davis this week may have you chasing points. With only four carries and two targets, Davis posted a Week 9 stat line of 20 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards and a score on two catches. Those are great numbers, but most of the fantasy production came on one 63-yard catch-and-run play that resulted in a touchdown. As long as James Cook is healthy, Davis appears to be relegated to a change-of-pace role. A Week 10 matchup against the Colts should allow for a good game script for Bills’ backs, but I’m not sure I can trust Davis with his current usage rate.
Mason faces a similar but far less well-defined problem. Christian McCaffrey will likely make his season debut this week against the Bucs. It’s a great matchup for both backs, but it’s anyone’s guess how opportunities will be divided. The Niners 2024 McCaffrey situation continues to have an “anything is possible” vibe. Mason could have 15 carries or zero.
Verdict? Both are dicey propositions, but I’m going with Davis this week. He could have another big breakaway play or some additional garbage time usage. If McCaffrey ends up being ruled out, Mason is the obvious choice.
WR — Ladd McConkey (LAC) or Xavier Legette (CAR)?
The Chargers’ pass offense has kind of taken off in the last couple of weeks. McConkey got the party started in Week 8 with a 6/111/2 line. Quentin Johnston returned from a two-week absence in Week 9 to the tune of 4/118/1. Justin Herbert remains one of the lowest-volume passers, which hasn’t changed, but his two touchdown passes in each of the last two games are new (he has only 10 on the season). So, the question is, what will McConkey’s role be this week in an offense that has so far only been able to support one awesome wide receiver performance per week? And will there be any awesome performances, given that Tennessee is a tough fantasy matchup for receivers?
If you’re deciding between a Carolina player and anyone else, the answer is typically anyone else. However, Legette is a rookie with a good pedigree, and he has Bryce Young’s confidence. He led the team in targets (six), catching 4/33/1 in Week 9 as the Panthers surprised the Saints. He also had a drop that turned into an interception. Rookie receivers can be remarkably inconsistent. The Giants are an average matchup for wide receivers, and Legette is Carolina’s best option right now.
Verdict? I’m going with McConkey in a worse matchup but on a surging team with a more proven quarterback.
WR — Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) or Jameson Williams (DET)?
I wouldn’t blame you if you never wanted to start a Cardinals’ receiver again after last week. Kyler Murray and company had an ugly outing in Week 9, with Harrison catching two passes for 24 yards to lead this wide receiver group. Harrison led the team in targets (five), but the ground game (including a surprise Trey McBride rushing TD) was most successful in this forgettable Week 9 win. Chicago is a bad passing/receiving matchup, and Arizona smartly prioritized the run game, which might also happen in Week 10. The Jets are the league’s worst fantasy matchup for wide receivers.
Detroit is one of the hottest teams in the league, and they get Williams back from a two-game suspension for a Sunday Night Football game in Houston. Before the enforced time off, Williams was having a nice season as fantasy’s half-PPR WR30. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams had a lot of success against the Texans’ pass defense in Week 9’s Thursday Night Football game, so there is a recent precedent for them to support more than one fantasy wide receiver.
Verdict? You spent a lot of draft capital on Harrison, but you don’t have to keep paying for it. I’d rather roll with Williams in the higher-scoring, more fantasy-friendly game this time.
TE — Mike Gesicki (CIN) or Jonnu Smith (MIA)?
If there was ever a chasing points player, Gesicki is him. Gesicki’s 100 receiving yards (only the third such game of his career) and two touchdowns led all tight ends in Week 9. A lot depends on whether Tee Higgins is out again – and this is the Thursday night game – but Baltimore is a fantastic receiving matchup (for all positions). I have a hard time believing Week 9’s performance moves the needle much on how he’s utilized in the passing game, but I spent years being optimistic about Gesicki, so maybe I can’t let myself again.
In Miami, nothing is right. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are almost useless in fantasy, even with Tua Tagovailoa back. De’Von Achane is a stud, but there doesn’t seem to be room for two successful running backs in this offense anymore. Amid a downturn in offensive productivity, Smith has averaged almost seven targets per game in the last four games. He gets a favorable matchup with the Rams (sixth-most fantasy points to TEs). Combined with his ongoing involvement in the offense, that makes him worth consideration. He has probably benefitted from Tagovailoa’s slightly reduced target depth this year, though Week 9’s numbers were closer to 2022 and 2023.
Verdict? I’m going with Smith. I believe in the role more for Smith and see the Gesicki hype as more of a fluke. The Bengals were shorthanded, and he filled in admirably, as he has in the past … right before being relegated back to blocking.
(Photo of Daniel Jones: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
