Patriots predictions at NFL midseason: Drake Maye improves but the No. 1 pick is in play

FOXBORO, Mass. — The NFL trade deadline has passed, and the New England Patriots remained pretty quiet, because teams weren’t overly interested in what they were selling and because coach Jerod Mayo wants to build a culture with this roster while ideally winning some games down the stretch.

Still, the coach understands pressure is ramping up. He made clear on Wednesday that this applies to the players and coaching staff.

Asked about whether he’d consider changes to his staff, Mayo said, “We all have to get better.”

With that in mind, here are eight predictions for what’s to come in the second half of the season:

1. Drake Maye will have a better second half than Caleb Williams

After sitting on the bench for the first five games, Drake Maye has been everything the Patriots hoped for in his four starts. The team around him — the offensive line and the wide receiver group, in particular — is certainly an issue and much worse than Caleb Williams’ situation. But I’m calling my shot that Maye still outperforms Williams in the second half.

The rookie is certainly going to have some hiccups along the way, as evidenced by his nine turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. But Maye will continue to lead this boom-or-bust offense, and his ability to scramble is important for a Patriots team that lacks receivers who can get open.

This is less a knock on Williams and more a compliment of Maye. Oh, and New England’s next game? That would be Sunday against Williams’ Chicago Bears.

“He just wants to help the team win.”

Jerod Mayo on Drake Maye’s competitiveness: https://t.co/ssFSjCgRTy pic.twitter.com/B0VjrHgGGO

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 4, 2024

2. The running game will improve

The Patriots’ running game has been a nightmare lately, like when the team totaled 15 yards on 12 designed rushes against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. But Mayo and company remain committed to that phase of the game. In their ideal world, they’ll still run it about half the time.

So even if this team isn’t the top-10 rushing outfit the coaching staff once envisioned, it’s bound to get better. The Pats rank 29th in rushing EPA per play and 26th in success rate. I’d expect both of those to improve. Even if the offensive line isn’t good, Rhamondre Stevenson is too talented a back for the unit to remain this bogged down.

3. Hunter Henry will lead the team in receiving yards

It’s typically not a great sign when your best pass catcher is a tight end, but that’s where things are with the Patriots right now. Hunter Henry has become a safety net for Maye, totaling more than 40 receiving yards in each of Maye’s four starts.

The guess here is Henry finishes with more than 800 receiving yards, by far the most on the team. It’s easy to second-guess a lot of the team’s offseason moves, but re-signing Henry was a smart one.

HUNT ON FOURTH DOWN.

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/vvnSeqFTYL

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 3, 2024

4. Javon Baker will replace Ja’Lynn Polk as WR4

The Patriots keep saying they want to get rookie fourth-round pick Javon Baker more involved — and for good reason. He fell to them on Day 3 of the draft, but he has a big-play ability no one else in that wide receiver group has.

Meanwhile, Ja’Lynn Polk keeps struggling with every opportunity he gets. At a certain point, the Patriots need to give Baker a shot, even if it comes at the expense of Polk.

5. For the second year in a row, the Pats will have no Pro Bowlers

In the grand scheme of things, this doesn’t really matter. The Pro Bowl is just a bunch of postseason all-star festivities most people don’t care about.

But the larger issue is the Patriots don’t have any players considered to be among the best at their position. This season, it seems likely they won’t have one. Christian Gonzalez may be their best chance, but for as promising as he is, he hasn’t been one of the 10 best at his position this season.

6. Marcus Jones will step up

Undersized slot corner Marcus Jones got picked on by the New York Jets, who found success matching up Garrett Wilson across from him.

But I’ve been encouraged by the “compete” level and physical play of Jones. I think we’ll continue to see him improve in the second half of this season as he aims to solidify his spot in the starting lineup for 2025.

He’s also been very good as a punt returner this season, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him house one at some point.

Marc is electric ⚡️@MarcusJonesocho | #NEPats

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/tWWR2Vxp9n

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 3, 2024

7. There will be changes to the coaching staff

Mayo upped the pressure Wednesday, and it’s unlikely to be going away anytime soon unless the Patriots start winning games. Mayo dramatically increased the size of his coaching staff, at least compared to Bill Belichick’s preference, but something clearly isn’t working.

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and wide receivers coach Tyler Hughes could use a strong finish to the season. Otherwise, their seats could be hot by the time January rolls around.

8. The Patriots will get the No. 1 pick

Last year, the Patriots missed out on the No. 2 pick because they played a tougher schedule than the Washington Commanders, who also finished 4-13.

This season, though, thanks largely to the struggles of the Miami Dolphins and Jets, who they play twice, the Patriots’ schedule is easier. That’s the important tiebreaker for determining draft order.

Amazingly, there are nine two-win teams in the NFL, so the race for the No. 1 pick is more competitive than usual.

The guess here is that finishing 4-13 this year won’t nab the No. 1 pick. So I have the Patriots winning just one game the rest of the season — but getting rewarded with the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.