The Chicago Bears closed out the 2023 season with a 5-4 record in the last nine games, including winning four of their last six.
There were concrete signs of progress after coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles’ first season, which was a teardown of what their predecessors had built. The Bears defeated the Carolina Panthers with Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie from Division II Shepherd University. They beat the Minnesota Vikings on the road and upset the Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks. Eberflus’ defense also transformed into one of the league’s better units after the trade acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat.
The Bears will have to do better this season, though.
Maybe much better.
After two frustrating losses to the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders, a glass-half-empty outlook feels right for the final nine games. The Bears need to win to stave off major changes. Here are five predictions for the rest of the season.
The Bears will pull off another upset of the Lions
It’s not a crazy prediction if you remember that the Bears should have beaten the Lions twice last season. The Bears blew a 12-point lead in the final 4:15 in a 31-26 loss in their first meeting in Detroit. But three weeks later, the Bears defense overwhelmed quarterback Jared Goff in a 28-13 win at Soldier Field after the team’s bye week.
Goff had his worst game of an impressive season that day against the Bears. He finished with a 54.6 passer rating and 161 passing yards, which were both season lows for him. The Bears sacked Goff four times and intercepted him twice. Goff also mishandled a snap and lost a fumble.
In the first meeting, Goff led the Lions’ come-from-behind win, but the Bears defense still intercepted him three times (two by linebacker T.J. Edwards) and had two sacks. His 68.3 passer rating was his third-worst mark in a season in which he finished with a 97.9.
Maybe Eberflus has a good read on Goff with a better defense to send after him. Maybe a crazy game feels due for the Bears and Lions — and this time it swings in the Bears’ favor. Or maybe this will be the Bears’ only victory in what still looks like the best division in the NFL.
The Packers will defeat the Bears in a way that infuriates the front office
We all know how bad Bears seasons play out. They’re not over until the Bears play the Packers and more bad things happen on the field. Like former coach John Fox challenging a potential Bears touchdown and it flipping to a turnover. Or whether it’s simply seeing a Packers quarterback outplay his Bears counterpart.
The Bears have beaten the Packers only three times since firing Lovie Smith after the 2012 season. Quarterback Caleb Williams is here to change that. But so were Justin Fields and Mitch Trubisky before him. The Bears’ last win against Green Bay came on Dec. 16, 2018. Trubisky outplayed Aaron Rodgers that day at Soldier Field as the Bears clinched the NFC North.
When it comes to the McCaskey family, nothing spurs change at Halas Hall more than losses to the Packers. We all know that, especially when a season starts with high expectations as this one did. An ugly loss to Green Bay — maybe in the final week of the season — and president/CEO Kevin Warren and Poles will hear it from chairman George McCaskey.
Cole Kmet’s usage will continue to be one of the season’s biggest mysteries
It started with Kmet’s low snap count in Week 1 and now it’s his number of targets against the Cardinals. That would be zero. The veteran tight end was on the field for 63 plays — including 41 pass attempts from Williams — and he wasn’t thrown to once.
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron surely will say that the Bears want to get Kmet involved, that it’s important to get the ball to your best playmakers. He already said as much earlier in the season. So seeing Kmet with zero targets in Arizona after getting only one against the Washington Commanders seems like a problem. It appears to be more than a rookie quarterback learning on the job.
If you’re making a list of reasons why the Bears should (or will) move on from Waldron, Kmet’s usage should be high on it.
“Obviously, I want to be involved in the offense and make plays where I can but sometimes it’s just how the game flows here and here,” Kmet said Wednesday. “It is what it is. I know that it’s not a conscious effort to not get me the football. It’s just kind of sometimes how things play out and it takes all 11 from that standpoint. I think it is just kind of it what it is. I try not to get frustrated with that stuff just because there’s a lot that goes into it.
“It’s just being ready for it and if it’s not getting a target for a while, it’s always important to keep your head in the game because the moment you get frustrated with things and the ball does come your way, sometimes a bad thing happens if you take your head out of it. It’s just important to stay locked in in the plays.”
Perhaps, there should be a conscious effort to get Kmet the ball. When in doubt, it should always be players over plays. But that’s on Waldron.
Caleb Williams’ connection with Rome Odunze will be the feel-good story of the season
Here’s a prediction within this prediction: Odunze will be the Bears’ leading receiver over the final nine games.
The Bears look like a team that will be searching for positives every week the rest of the way. Odunze led the Bears with five catches for 104 yards against the Cardinals. It’s a good game for him to build on.
Different stories are unfolding at receiver for the Bears. It’s been a strange year for DJ Moore, whose in-game actions are being closely watched and sometimes criticized. Veteran Keenan Allen has had problems with drops, too.
Odunze isn’t putting up the same numbers that rookie receiver Malik Nabers is for the Giants. But the potential for improvement is obvious. Odunze’s 44 targets after eight games trail only Moore’s 60, while his 391 receiving yards and 15.6 yards per catch already lead the team.
Jaylon Johnson will be the only Bears player to receive postseason honors
Other players still have time to improve their cases. Odunze should be in the mix for the PFWA’s All-Rookie team. Nickel corner Kyler Gordon was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his hamstring injury. Sweat was being treated like an elite pass rusher by opposing offenses before his shin injury. And rookie punter Tory Taylor has continued to turn heads in press boxes across the league with every Bears road game.
But Johnson, the fifth-year cornerback, has been the Bears’ best player this season.
According to Pro Football Reference, Johnson has allowed 14 catches on 26 targets for 206 yards and no touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 47.9 passer rating when throwing at him. Johnson has two interceptions, five pass breakups and four tackles for loss.
(Photo of Zacch Pickens sacking Jared Goff in 2023: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
