The Minnesota Vikings did not enter the 2024 season with grand expectations. Internally, staffers and players believed they could surprise folks, and that’s what they’ve done. Entering Week 10 at 6-2, they are one win away from eclipsing their projected win total for the season.
November has a chance to spur Minnesota forward further. In the next three weeks, the Vikings play two struggling AFC South teams (Jacksonville and Tennessee) and one scuffling NFC North foe (Chicago). Win all three games, and the Vikings will be jockeying for playoff position down the stretch.
Who would’ve thought?
With the future in mind, here are six predictions for the back half of the season.
Sam Darnold will finish in the top 15 in essentially every meaningful passing statistic
How about what Sam Darnold has done through eight games? The Vikings quarterback ranks in the top 15 in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns, QBR and passer rating. That is a massive testament to Kevin O’Connell’s coaching and play calling. And it does not feel like a fluke.
Darnold can launch the ball. He has been mostly accurate. He also benefits from playing with elite skill players (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson) and a competent pass-protection unit. Paired with a system full of concepts that fit his style, he has charted the best season of his career. His interception rate and sack rate remain concerns, but neither should prevent him from continuing to stockpile impressive numbers.
The Vikings’ upcoming opponents will help Darnold’s cause. Of the eight teams the Vikings will face, only the Titans defense ranks in the top 10. Two of those opponents, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals, are the worst-ranked defenses in the NFL in success rate at stopping the passing game.
https://t.co/a9whnIPJ8b‘s @jeffrichadiha tabbed Sam Darnold as the NFL’s biggest surprise so far in 2024.
📰: https://t.co/007eiGJppy pic.twitter.com/pRV1brEAfz
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 6, 2024
By the end of the season, Dalton Risner will be starting at right guard
Only four guards in the league have allowed more pressures than right guard Ed Ingram through nine weeks. Only one ranks lower than Ingram on Pro Football Focus’ blocking-efficiency rating.
Ingram, who is the only 2022 Vikings draft pick still starting regularly for the team, can block effectively in the run game. And he does have stretches in pass protection that provide reason for optimism. But he’s inconsistent. He lunges for blocks and is often sideswiped. He trots out to block for a screen but cannot pick up the correct defender. His best characteristic is availability, and in a position group that hinges heavily on continuity, that’s not nothing.
If Dalton Risner were a massive upgrade, another NFL team would have signed the free agent before the Vikings. And he probably would already be playing. Regardless, with how reliant Minnesota’s offense is on its explosive passing game, replacing Ingram still feels possible. The opposing fronts are not as daunting in the second half as they were in the first, although Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is menacing. It might take only one more brutal stretch for O’Connell to pull the plug.
Jonathan Greenard will be in the DPOY conversation but won’t win
You could make the case that Jonathan Greenard has been the most underrated defender in the NFL in 2024. He has more pressures than any other edge rusher. His seven sacks are tied for sixth in the league. Advanced metrics like pressure rate, win rate and PFF’s pressure rating all verify his production. The eye test validates it, too.
Rarely is Greenard discussed in conversations alongside Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett or even Trey Hendrickson. If he replicates his activity in the second half, he will be. Greenard is likely to be a massive long shot in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. BetMGM has him listed at +6600 for the award. The more the Vikings win, and the longer this Minnesota defense continues its stellar play, the more attention he’ll receive.
The Vikings deserve credit for this signing. They chose not to pay Danielle Hunter, instead opting for a younger player trending upward. The way Minnesota structured Greenard’s deal is notable, too. His cap hit will increase drastically from 2024 to 2025, but the Vikings will still be paying him less than the more heralded edges.
Cam Robinson will play himself into a compensatory pick for 2026
One theme in O’Connell’s time as the Vikings’ head coach is midseason arrivals who do not need lengthy runways of practice to play. In 2022, Hockenson arrived and four days later impacted a game in Washington against the Commanders. Last year, quarterback Josh Dobbs became a national story for his exploits in Atlanta after being acquired that week from Arizona. This season, left tackle Cam Robinson is the recipient of the you-played-well-in-short-order award.
The Vikings acquired him via trade from the Jaguars last week. He first practiced Thursday, then started Sunday and played admirably against the Colts. He is experienced and athletic enough to allow the staff to continue with its downfield aggression. The better he plays, the likelier it is the Vikings will have to give up a fourth-round pick. At the same time, the better he plays, the more he’ll warrant on the free-agent market this offseason. And the more another team pays him, the likelier it is he’ll bring back a compensatory pick in 2026.
Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is a huge fan of the @crobinson_68 trade. pic.twitter.com/3KwFugSuma
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 5, 2024
Brian Flores’ defense will finish as a top-five defense
The only concern with the Vikings defense is its struggle to limit explosive passes. Minnesota ranks 25th in this category, primarily because the team plays so much zone. So when an offensive front protects its quarterback long enough, that quarterback typically will have open receivers.
Linebacker Blake Cashman’s return should help the Vikings eliminate some of these chunk plays. Before he suffered a turf toe in Week 5, the Vikings limited opponents to about a 13 percent explosive pass rate. That figure has climbed to around 24 percent in his absence, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Matchups with the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams also affected the increase. But many of the Vikings’ future opponents are less explosive.
If Minnesota can constrict space over the middle of the field and rush the passer effectively, it could be one of the best five defenses in the NFL. The Vikings stop the run. They generate turnovers. Both are sustainable, so long as key starters stay healthy, and both would lead to league-wide interest in Flores and his staff.
The Vikings will win at least 11 games and a playoff game
The Vikings’ preseason projected win total was 6 1/2. Halfway in, they’re at six. Minnesota has one of the most effective defenses in the NFL and an offense loaded with skill players. The schedule to this point has been much harder than the future schedule appears to be.
Minnesota’s next six games are against the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons and Bears. All are winnable. Using DVOA, a metric that accounts for strength of schedule, the Vikings rate higher than all six opponents. Win a handful of those games and they’ll creep closer to that total of 11. A playoff game would almost certainly follow, and the combination of Jefferson and a one-off Flores game plan would give the Vikings a solid chance at a victory.
If they get there — considering the preseason expectations in a transition year — O’Connell and Flores will deserve a ton of credit. So will the front office that moved off of Kirk Cousins and Hunter, nabbing several free agents who have massively impacted the season for the better.
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(Photo of Jonathan Greenard: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
