Broncos second-half predictions: Bo Nix's numbers, WR milestone and ... playoffs?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — There is no true halfway point in an NFL season these days. Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton joked this week that his team was midway through its campaign during halftime of its loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Not exactly the time to take stock of the road ahead.

But the final eight games, following Denver’s 5-4 start, offer a pretty clean dividing line for a team that enters the homestretch with plenty at stake. Here are five predictions for what is ahead.

The Broncos reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015

The loss to the Ravens in Week 9 didn’t fundamentally change the playoff picture for the Broncos. But the enormity of the defeat raised questions about how ready this team is to win the kind of games down the stretch that are necessary to break a streak of eight straight seasons without a playoff berth, the second-longest drought in the NFL.

Wednesday’s #DENvsKC injury report:

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Still, the Broncos enter the backstretch with a viable path to the playoffs. That’s partly because nine wins could be enough to crack the field in the AFC. The Broncos, even after falling to 5-4 by way of last week’s 41-10 loss, still occupy the No. 7 spot. The Broncos have a difficult matchup with the undefeated, two-time champion Chiefs in Kansas City. But the Bengals and Colts, the two teams behind the Broncos at 4-5, face similarly daunting opponents this week in the Ravens and Bills. Even if the Broncos fail to upset the Chiefs, they could still be in the No. 7 spot come Monday morning.

Bo Nix continues to improve, and that’s one of the biggest reasons to be optimistic about Denver’s chances down the stretch. This team still has too many weaknesses to forecast a winning record against the challenging back half of this schedule, but a .500 mark (4-4) is achievable and that would put Denver at nine wins. It looks like that may be enough this season. It would be a significant achievement for a franchise that entered the year with limited outside expectations, and an encouraging sign about the future with Nix at quarterback.

Most forecasting models currently give the Broncos about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. It’s a coin flip, and it feels like it’s finally this team’s chance to land heads up.

Courtland Sutton will be Broncos’ first 1,000-yard receiver since 2019

Since the start of the 2020 season, no Broncos player has rushed for 1,000 yards or reached that plateau as a receiver. Each of the other 31 teams has put a player in at least one of those categories during that stretch — and most teams have checked both boxes. Denver has a good chance to break one of those streaks this season thanks to Courtland Sutton.

Sutton produced the team’s last 1,000-yard receiving season as a second-year player in 2019 (1,112). Phillip Lindsay squeaked his way over the threshold with 1,011 rushing yards that same season. Sutton through nine games in 2024 has 499 receiving yards on 36 catches. That leaves him on pace for 943 yards. However, his numbers include a game against the Saints in which he wasn’t targeted. Since then, he’s produced back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for the first time in his career. Sutton has become more of a downfield threat in recent weeks and figures to expand that role as he grows his chemistry with Nix. That should be enough for Sutton to reach the elusive milestone.

Courtland Sutton comes down with a WILD touchdown catch 👀

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The Broncos are less likely to break their rushing drought. Javonte Williams is the team’s leading rusher with 387 in nine games — well off the pace for a 1,000-yard season — and Payton hinted this week rookie Audric Estimé could start seeing a larger share of carries in Denver’s backfield. Speaking of Estimé …

Rookie will become Broncos’ lead RB by season’s end

Payton made no secret this week that the Broncos must run the ball more efficiently in the second half of the season to remain in the playoff chase.

“If we’re … not having the ability to slow the game down and play it on our terms, I think it’s going to be challenging for us to accomplish our goals,” said Payton, who also outlined defending the run and improving the team’s minus-1 turnover margin as key areas of focus for the season’s second half.

Payton hinted that Estimé, the fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame, could be key to improving Denver’s rushing offense. The Broncos rank 27th in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per rush (-0.13) when a running back is the ball carrier, according to TruMedia. Estimé, meanwhile, is averaging 6.3 yards per carry across his 15 attempts. It’s time for a larger sample size. Estimé’s opportunities have been limited by a) a stint on IR that cost him four games; and b) a fumbling issue that has seen him cough the ball up twice in those 15 carries.

Javonte Williams has improved as an all-around back. He has been stout in pass protection. His 216 receiving yards have him on pace to surpass his career high in that category (316 as a rookie in 2021). But Williams has been inconsistent as a runner. He ranks 23rd in EPA per rush (-0.16) among 25 running backs with at least 100 carries. It’s not a new trend. Williams ranks 48th out of 60 running backs in the same category when including the 2023 season.

Simply put, the Broncos need a spark in the running game. It’s been a small sample size, but Estimé has shown flashes of a player ready to maximize a larger opportunity when it comes his way. That’s why I think that from Week 10 through the end of the season, Estimé will be Denver’s leading rusher.

Pat Surtain II and Zach Allen will make the Pro Bowl

I’m not exactly going out on a limb to suggest Surtain, who with three interceptions is already just one away from matching his career high, will make the Pro Bowl for the third time in his first four seasons. The star cornerback signed a long-term extension with the Broncos just before the regular season and has been as dominant as ever. He singlehandedly changed the complexion of a Week 5 win against the Raiders, when he had two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown. He has essentially erased the opponent’s top receiver every week. His Pro Bowl invitation will be a no-brainer, and he could earn first-team All-Pro honors for the second time.

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Allen has earned his way into consideration with a dominating first half of the season. His four sacks, just two shy of a new career high, tell only part of the story. He’s been among the NFL’s leaders in pressure rate for defensive linemen throughout the season. He’s been such a game-wrecker that the Ravens spent nearly the entire game Sunday throwing double-teams his way. Teams won’t have that luxury all year because they won’t be able to play with a multi-score lead like the Ravens did and because leaving players like John Franklin-Myers with consistent one-on-one matchups isn’t exactly a good alternative.

There’s nothing to suggest Allen won’t keep being a disruptive force. Similar production in the second half will give him a great chance to make his first Pro Bowl. The Broncos could have other candidates. Chief among them is Quinn Meinerz, who leads all NFL right guards with a minuscule 1.7 percent pressure rate allowed, according to TruMedia. But I think they’ll land at two — and Surtain and Allen have been the team’s two best to this point.

Nix will finish rookie year with 25 total touchdowns

Nix has been no stranger to the end zone this season. He’s thrown eight touchdown passes in nine starts, but he’s also rushed for four scores and reached the end zone as a receiver against the Ravens on Sunday. That’s 13 total touchdowns for a quarterback responsible for 33 plays of 20 or more yards this season. That’s second most in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson, as The Athletic’s Dane Brugler noted.

Nix will turn a higher rate of those plays into touchdowns during the second half of the season as a young offense continues to grow around him. He’ll see perhaps the toughest defense he’ll face all year Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, but the rest of the schedule has more favorable matchups. The Broncos have moved the ball with greater consistency over the past month. Now it’s about improving a red zone offense that sputtered against the Ravens, including a drive in which Nix had a touchdown run called back due to a hold. If they can, it’s easy to see a surge of touchdowns for Nix over the final eight games. If he can get to 30, it would be the most total touchdowns for a Broncos quarterback since Peyton Manning in 2014 (39, all passing). That’s probably a stretch, but 25 would be the second most for a Broncos quarterback in the last 10 seasons behind the 29 (26 passing, three rushing) Russell Wilson accounted for last season.