Welcome to Week 11 of the college football season. I’m a little late this week due to some family matters that needed to be attended to, but nevertheless, we fired up the College Football Projection Model to see if there is any value left on the board.
Now, of course, due to the late start to the week, some of the value dried up. But there still are a few plays out there that I think are worth firing on. Hopefully, we can get back on track after last week’s poor showing.
Last week’s record: 2-6, -4.53 units
Season record: 39-45-3, -10.47 units, -11.0% ROI
Only four plays to start the week. I have my eye on a few games that I may add if we get the right price. But for now, small card due to the late start to the week. As always, shop around for the best price, and good luck to us!
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Best bets for college football Week 11
Florida Atlantic at East Carolina under 58.5 (-105)
Both of these offenses rank outside the top 100 per my projections, and both teams’ defenses are the better unit. There is some concern with how fast ECU likes to play, but Florida Atlantic’s average pace should help in that regard. My projections do have ECU as one of the faster-paced teams in the country, and I still can’t get to this number.
- Worst price to bet: Under 58 (-110)
Georgia -2.5 (-115) at Ole Miss
Georgia has been inconsistent this year, to say the least, but the Bulldogs are still one of the best teams in the country. At the same time, Ole Miss hasn’t quite lived up to the preseason expectations either. And considering Georgia has played one of the toughest schedules to date while Ole Miss has played a fringe top-50 schedule, I think the Rebels are overvalued here.
- Worst price to bet: Georgia -3 (-110)
Michigan +14 (-105) at Indiana
I know that Michigan’s offense is not very good, and I’m enjoying Indiana’s run more than anyone. However, this is a step up in class for the Hoosiers in terms of athleticism. It’s entirely possible that Michigan’s offense can’t get anything going, but I think Indiana is going to have its hands full with Michigan’s defensive line.
- Worst price to bet: Michigan +14 (-110)
Texas State at Louisiana Monroe over 48.5 (-111)
- Worst price to bet: Over 48.5 (-111)
(Photo of Carson Beck and Nate Frazier: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
