Something wasn’t quite right with Auston Matthews two seasons ago.
From the earliest days of the 2022-23 campaign, Matthews didn’t look like his dominant self, not like the guy who had captured the first Hart Trophy by a Toronto Maple Leaf in almost 70 years with a remarkable 60-goal season.
Matthews later revealled to me that he had been playing through an injury to his hand, among other apparent bumps and bruises which had dogged him from the start of the season.
Things feel eerily similar with Matthews right now.
Matthews didn’t practice or skate on Thursday and appears set to miss his second consecutive game with an injury the Leafs have chosen not to reveal.
Craig Berube on whether Auston Matthews will play this weekend: “That’s to be determined still. It’s hard for me to answer that question knowing what I know right now with him today.”
Matthews did not practise or skate today.
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) November 7, 2024
Matthews’ production through 13 games this fall looks almost identical to his first 13 games two seasons ago:
2022-23: Six goals, 13 points, 9.8 percent shooting
2024-25: Five goals, 11 points, 8.9 percent shooting
Matthews took almost no time off during that ’22-23 season – just seven games for injury, five of which were the result of a knee strain – and never did reach his usual level of dominance. He finished that season with “only” 40 goals and 85 points, a steep drop-off from the 60 goals and 106 points he posted the year before.
A healthy Matthews produced a monster 69 goals and 107 points a year later.
All of this brings us to the sticky question the Leafs face: How much restraint should they show with their best player? Related: How much restraint can they afford to use?
Would it be better for the team in the long run for Matthews to sit for a more extended period (a week? Two?) if that means eliminating the ailment for good? Would a more extended absence even help?
Can this version of the Leafs afford that kind of absence? Would their playoff hopes be threatened?
While we don’t know exactly what the injury is, we know that Matthews left a practice at training camp when it was only halfway done because of something. We don’t know whether it’s related to what’s going on now because the Leafs haven’t revealed that.
Head coach Craig Berube did say that something has been nagging Matthews for a “little bit” and the team believes that Matthews’ production and performance have suffered because of it. They’re hoping that sitting out a little while will allow the injury to settle.
The version of Matthews they’ve gotten so far, playing through the injury, has been good, just not to last season’s MVP(ish) level.
Earlier this week, I wondered what was going on with Matthews amid a level of production that looked askew. I wish I had assumed any injury because any time that Matthews has performed sluggishly there’s usually been an injury to help explain it.
Knowing what I know now makes me look at his shooting struggles a little differently.
There’s the fact that Matthews hasn’t been beating goalies from between the dots. He’s scored once from mid-range on 21 shots.
Last season he shot a blistering 17.5 percent from there. League average was 9.2 percent. He was destroying goalies from there. Now, not so much.
Related to that is Matthews’ wrist shot, which is usually so dangerous from basically anywhere. It’s been less potent this season.
Matthews has scored on only 8.6 percent of his attempts with the wrist shot, down quite a bit from the 18.1 percent he shot last season – which ranked third in the league among those with at least 100 attempts. (Only Sam Reinhart and Elias Pettersson fared better, albeit on much less volume.)
We also haven’t seen much of the Matthews’ one-timer. He’s hit the net with only six slap shots so far, but not scored on any of them. Ten of Matthews’ 69 goals last season came via the slapper.
Matthews relies more on a quick release than he does a blazing shot, but it feels notable now with word of an injury that the speed of his shot is down this year. His hardest shot so far: 135.8 km/hr. Last year he topped out at 147.2. A season before: 151.5. Matthews’ average shot speed of 79.7 km/hr, meanwhile, is down from 82.3 last season.
A couple other things that stand out:
1. Matthews isn’t thieving pucks like usual. He has three takeaways, total, all season. Last year he ranked second in the entire league with 85.
2. Matthews hasn’t been as physical. He was good for about three hits per 60 minutes over the previous four seasons. This season: 1.3 hits per 60. Matthews has thrown only six hits in 13 games.
So clearly, whatever it is that’s bugging him is limiting him in a variety of ways, not just his shooting. (His faceoff performance remains strong.)
Matthews at even 75 percent is obviously still a great player. Though the play of his line hasn’t been quite as elite as in previous seasons, the Leafs are still winning those minutes handily. He’s also proven to be an excellent addition to the penalty kill.
And yet, the Leafs aren’t going anywhere good without the best version of Matthews.
They did advance to the second round of the postseason with Matthews at less than 100 percent in 2023. He had his moments in the first round against Tampa, certainly, but wasn’t quite an overwhelming force and struggled in round two against Florida.
This Leafs team is weaker than that one. And while the Leafs, historically, do have a surprisingly great record without Matthews, it’s worth keeping in mind that most of his absences in recent years have been short. Thirty-four of the 57 games he’s missed (a handful of which came for rest and also, a suspension) were in years two and three of his career.
The Leafs haven’t had to play without him for any extended period.
I’m tempted to think that this version of the team might struggle to make the playoffs in that case, what with Max Domi and 34-year-old John Tavares filling the 1-2 centre spots and an offence with some legitimate depth questions (even with Matthews).
That said, the middle of the Eastern Conference looks pretty weak right now. There might be enough talent here to survive for a few weeks without Matthews.
Maybe this injury doesn’t require that kind of absence. Only the Leafs can know that. What we do know is it’s been bothering Matthews and affecting his performance and perhaps, because of all that, the Leafs should think bigger picture right now with their best player.
(Top photo: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)
–Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, NHL EDGE, and Hockey Reference
