Welcome back for another week of fantasy football speculation. I use a patented, data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, with the goal of identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then, for all the last-minute managers on the go, I include a section at the bottom of the column — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals (courtesy of TruMedia). In searching for a fantasy quarterback, of course, we need volume but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before digging through our speculative bargain bin, ensure Tua Tagovailoa is no longer available. It’s the point of the season where most quarterbacks represent known commodities and availability depends more on that week’s bye situation. Despite four teams (CLE, GB, LV, SEA) resting this Sunday, only Jordan Love is in the top 10, so I noticed QB waivers were mostly quiet. If I’m stuck, I’ll turn to old reliable — attack the Panthers. Carolina is 30th or worse in EPA/dropback, opposer passer rating and passing TDs allowed. Daniel Jones inspires gray hairs, but he’s coming off a QB3 finish and things could be worse. Rough as the sledding has been at times, there’s still a weekly rushing floor worth targeting for streams. Now, to the most desperate deep-leaguers, hold your nose. Just when I was about to recommend Trevor Lawrence again (dipped under 50% rostership on Yahoo), he popped up as doubtful. Mac Jones is his backup, and he’s reportedly looked good in camp (ducks). Jokes aside, the Jaguars have surrounding talent and it’s not inconceivable to project Jones inside the top 24 for as long as he gets run.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved successful by pivoting away from the lowest-hanging fruit — total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency in fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize him as a speculative add.
Five Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 65.0% Touch/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 45.5% Touch/Snap
- Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 42.3% Touch/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 41.4% Touch/Snap
- D’Onta Foreman, CLE — 38.0% Touch/Snap
Ten Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Sean Tucker, TB — 0.78 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.70 FPS/Snap
- Dameon Pierce, HOU — 0.55 FPS/Snap
- Emari Demercado, ARI — 0.51 FPS/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 0.49 FPS/Snap
- JaMycal Hasty, NE — 0.42 FPS/Snap
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 0.38 FPS/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 0.38 FPS/Snap
- Tyler Goodson, IND — 0.37 FPS/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.36 FPS/Snap
Suboptimal RB options are the new norm if you whiff on the first waiver run this year. That said, it’s par for the course at this stage of the season, when it becomes more about identifying the crop of “next men up.” With RB committees as the new standard, you’ll be hard-pressed to find immediate production. And that’s not to mention that somehow it’s the WRs, not the RBs, getting injured. Not to ignore this week’s lists, but most, if any, fantasy viability came and went as a temporary injury replacement.
If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout for now and later, I would go back to the well for Bills backup Ray Davis at Indianapolis. The Colts struggle against the run, allowing 150 yards/game and more than 3.25 yards after contact per rush. But Buffalo could blow them out, getting Davis bulk work in the fourth quarter, and his explosiveness alone gives us a chance at another home run — like last week’s 63-yard TD.
Wide Receivers
Similar to free agent RBs, make sure this week’s top WR adds Ricky Pearsall, Quentin Johnston, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Mike Williams and Demarcus Robinson belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above-average amount of looks while doing it.
Fourteen Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +15% Targets Per Route, +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- Noah Brown, WAS — 25.3 Rte/Gm, 20.8% TPRR, 0.39 FPS/Rte
- Troy Franklin, DEN — 21.8 Rte/Gm, 17.2% TPRR, 0.30 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 21.3 Rte/Gm, 17.6% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Jalen Nailor, MIN — 21.0 Rte/Gm, 15.9% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
- Cody White, SEA — 20.0 Rte/Gm, 15.0% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- David Moore, CAR — 18.0 Rte/Gm, 15.3% TPRR, 0.22 FPS/Rte
- Tyler Johnson, LAR — 17.7 Rte/Gm, 24.5% TPRR, 0.34 FPS/Rte
- Ryan Miller, TB — 17.3 Rte/Gm, 17.3% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 16.0 Rte/Gm, 31.3% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN — 15.5 Rte/Gm, 24.2% TPRR, 0.20 FPS/Rte
- Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS — 15.3 Rte/Gm, 23.0% TPRR, 0.33 FPS/Rte
- Robert Woods, HOU — 15.0 Rte/Gm, 16.7% TPRR, 0.34 FPS/Rte
Oof. The brutal run of WR injuries continued again last weekend! In this bleak environment, I’m looking to the Commanders. They continue to cook on offense without a true WR2 behind Terry McLaurin and lately it has been Noah Brown soaking up the flanker routes (image left). He’s topping my list and now sits second on the team in routes, targets, catches, and air yards. Washington has a tough matchup versus Pittsburgh this weekend, but it’s conceivable Jayden Daniels and McLaurin eat up the majority of the Steelers’ attention, leaving Brown in a position to earn the points to justify a Flex start. Another productive week and we could have a borderline starter through the remainder of bye season.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top add, Cade Otton, isn’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism — which may be an exercise in futility. But there’s no retreat or surrender in these fantasy streets.
Four TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +5.5 Air Yards Per Target (Past 3 Games)
- Jonnu Smith, MIA — 21.8% Team Tar, 6.5 AY/Tar
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR — 16.8% Team Tar, 6.4 AY/Tar
- Grant Calcaterra, PHI — 16.3% Team Tar, 5.0 AY/Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 12.5% Team Tar, 9.1 AY/Tar
- Chig Okonkwo, TEN — 12.3% Team Tar, 6.6 AY/Tar
- Juwan Johnson, NO — 10.5% Team Tar, 9.3 AY/Tar
- Josh Oliver, MIN — 9.8% Team Tar, 5.3 AY/Tar
Week 10 Sunday Streaming Service (<35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Daniel Jones, NYG at CAR
- QB — Mac Jones, JAX vs MIN
- RB — Ray Davis, BUF at IND
- WR — Jalen Nailor, MIN at JAX
- TE — Taysom Hill, NO vs ATL
- DST — Giants at CAR
(Top photo of Noah Brown: Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
