Should the Edmonton Oilers be worried about their goaltending?

The Edmonton Oilers are off to a baffling start to the 2024-25 season. It’s better than it was a year ago, but there’s plenty of fan discontent.

Among the targets online? Goaltending.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Edmonton’s fans have observed electric goaltending set against puzzling performances in net in recent years, sometimes from the same goaltender in the same game (example: Mike Smith).

It would be safe to say the organization’s stoppers are under the gun from the beginning of the anthem through the shootout every game.

Fans have a “trust but verify” relationship with No. 1 goaltender Stuart Skinner, and the mood can change with the wind direction.

Is the Oilers’ problem in net? Is this a larger issue, involving all three levels of deployment (goaltenders, but also defence and forwards playing responsibly)?

Or is there another reason for the poor start by the team?

Here’s a look at Edmonton’s year-over-year performance in some key areas, via Natural Stat Trick.

Edmonton’s goaltending at five-on-five (the biggest and most important game state) has improved markedly compared to early games one year ago. This is despite giving up more high-danger chances per 60 in 2024-25.

Meanwhile, the team’s save percentage is in the ditch when the Oilers are on the penalty kill. Your opinion about Skinner (and Calvin Pickard) probably turns on how much importance you place on goaltending when a team is short-handed.

The best PK man is the goalie, but Edmonton’s performance in this game state has been so bad it’s safe to say all involved parties own some of the blame.

It’s up to the coaching staff to fix the PK, and the power play (surely) will eventually find its way.

The concern for fans should surround five-on-five play. What’s going on?

Five-on-five

Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage this season through 14 games (.905) is on par with his numbers (.908) a year ago.

Edmonton’s spike in the discipline comes from Pickard’s save percentage (.931) towering over last year’s starter Jack Campbell (.879) through 14 games at the beginning of 2023-24.

So, if the Oilers are better in save percentage this season, it follows the five-on-five outscoring should also be superior. Again, here’s a look year over year:

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick

This gets us to the heart of the issue. Edmonton’s goaltenders have improved markedly at five-on-five in the first 14 games this season compared to the first 14 contests last season. That’s a strong number for Edmonton’s defence and ranks No. 13 among NHL teams this season.

Offence has fallen off slightly this season, but the overall goal share is up to 47 percent compared to 42 percent through 14 games in 2023-24.

Last year, the offence eventually figured it out and eventually outscored opponents in spectacular fashion. It would be unwise to expect that kind of regression to arrive right on time, but there’s enough firepower on this roster to make it happen.

Let’s dig deeper into the five-on-five numbers

Year over year under the hood

The Oilers’ five-on-five offence is the same this year as it was a year ago (23 goals for Edmonton through 14 games in each season).

Edmonton’s five-on-five defence has improved. The team surrendered 32 goals last season and has allowed 26 so far this year.

No one should be trumpeting the team’s outscoring, because the Oilers are in fact not outscoring.

At five-on-five, the goaltending has improved; the offence is flat but hasn’t cratered.

What’s under the hood? What do shot and chance metrics tell us? Are the Oilers getting more shots and high-danger chances year over year at five-on-five?

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Math is boring, but it’s supposed to reveal interesting things about the subject at hand.

In this case, the Oilers at five-on-five look like the same team getting similar results year over year.

The shots-against per 60 has been reduced, but the high-danger chances have increased. The overall level of work for goalies five-on-five is about the same, with the improved save percentage reflecting two stable goaltenders delivering productive work.

The shots for per 60 is up slightly but the high-danger chances are down. It’s interesting, and there are reasons we can attach to it (Evan Bouchard’s poor start, Connor McDavid not quite 100 percent and recently injured) but there is no “aha!” moment in these numbers.

Like the team, the math of the Oilers at five-on-five is rather boring.

They look like a team trying to shake the doldrums of a short summer and a major Stanley Cup Final disappointment, and the five-on-five numbers confirm the general malaise of this edition of the Oilers.

Special teams year over year? A different story.

Special teams

The Oilers are so bad on the penalty kill that one could make a case for conceding a goal to save energy. You have to look deep into the game’s history to see numbers that rival Edmonton’s expansion-level PK. The power play, which has to be a strength in order for the team to succeed, is inexplicably ill.

All numbers Natural Stat Trick

This is unsustainable on both special teams, but tracking regression like it punches a clock is unwise.

Edmonton’s five-on-five goals for and against (23-26) is on the low end for such a strong and dynamic team. The team’s best players haven’t been at their best during the first 14 games. If fans are worried about McDavid, Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl, a quick look at their previous seasons should cure it. The two forwards may be aging out of their prime seasons, but there is plenty of success to come in each career.

The power play (five goals and none against in five games) is averaging 0.36 goals per game. The penalty kill is allowing 1.07 per game (15 goals in 14 games).

That such a highly touted team houses two special teams units this poor is shocking.

Last season, the power play averaged 0.78 goals per game and the PK allowed 0.64 per game.

The special teams disaster is the biggest issue on the team.

What about the goalies?

The math makes it clear. As much as the penalty kill issue is partly on the goaltenders, the five-on-five performance suggests Edmonton’s goalies are a strong unit and worth the investment.

Skinner backstopped this team to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, and given another opportunity may help produce the first parade honouring an Oilers team in 35 years.

Should the Oilers be worrying about the goaltending? Yes, on the penalty kill. It has to be better. Otherwise, the tandem appears locked and loaded for a long and successful season.

It’s time for the skaters to outscore five-on-five, hammer the power play and work smarter on the penalty kill.

Seems the goaltenders might be the least of the issues based on the math available.

(Photo of Stuart Skinner: Sergei Belski / Imagn Images)