Happy Friday, let’s get right into it.
Four Game Streamers
Rickard Rakell, C/RW, PIT | 31% Yahoo
The Penguins went into Thursday night with a stacked top line of Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and Rakell, which is where all the fantasy value stems from in Pittsburgh.
Thursday’s night matchup against the Hurricanes was miserable for the Penguins. The top line got outscored 1-0 at five-on-five, but Pittsburgh was better in their minutes. The trio earned a 69 percent expected goal rate, according to NaturalStatTrick, which should lead to better results if they can keep it up (granted the line isn’t broken up ahead of the next game).
Jeremy Lauzon, D, NSH | 27% Yahoo
Let’s face it, the offense is not popping in Nashville, which makes finding a hidden gem more challenging. Instead, using the schedule, I’m pinpointing a category booster. Keep an eye on Lauzon in the second half of next week when the Predators take on two teams who tend to hit a lot — Calgary and Vancouver.
Dmitry Orlov, D, CAR | 11% Yahoo
The Hurricanes are thriving and seeing contributions from their entire lineup — including from Orlov. How long will this blueliner’s offensive outburst last? That’s the big question because the Canes aren’t generating that much more in his minutes relative to his teammates. But their slate of opponents next week — Utah, Ottawa, St. Louis, and Vegas — all rank in the bottom half of the league in five-on-five goals against. That may help extend his scoring.
Conor Garland, RW, VAN | 13% Yahoo
The pesky forward is doing the most to get something going in his minutes. A lot of that depends on Elias Pettersson, who has been trending up in Game Score as of late. If he can get back to his offensive heights, it should have a trickle-down effect on the players around him — like Garland and Pius Suter. And please let the record show that Garland scored against the Kings just after this section was written, so maybe there is some fantasy trends magic at play here.
Dakota Joshua’s return is also worth tracking in Vancouver. He likely will play in a bottom-six capacity, at least to start. But if he can build on last year’s scoring while remaining a physical presence, he should be worthwhile to those in banger leagues.
Jack Roslovic, C/RW, CAR | 3% Yahoo
Roslovic has nine goals with his new team. Yes, you read that right. With nine goals and zero assists, he is scoring at a career-high rate. A lot of that has to do with his surroundings. The Hurricanes have a knack for maximizing players within their system and masking some of their weaknesses. And he is skating alongside two of the team’s best in Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.
Roslovic is rising to the occasion on the top line with a lot more shot volume and quality, which he’s cashing in on at an impressive rate. He has been a streaky scorer throughout his career, so this may fade. For now, he makes for a savvy depth add, especially with Carolina’s schedule in mind.
Light Night Performers
This week’s schedule follows the typical structure, with busy Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday nights. But unlike most weeks, the “light nights” have a bit more action. There is a six-game slate on Monday, plus three true light nights on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. That helps make up for a weaker group of four-game streamers this week.
Washington and Vegas probably have the best schedules ahead, with three light nights in Week 7.
The Capitals are garnering a lot of attention for their surprisingly good start, and their top-six forwards have been pivotal through it. Connor McMichael is shooting the puck a ton and converting on a high clip of them. While shooting 20.5 percent probably isn’t sustainable, the shot quality is there — he has earned 6.2 expected goals so far, so the scoring shouldn’t just dry up. Aliaksei Protas stays on our radar for his work on the top line. Alongside Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome (who is only rostered in 63 percent of Yahoo leagues), the Capitals’ top line is now up to a 12-3 edge in five-on-five scoring.
Pavel Dorofeyev’s power play shooting deserves another shoutout — he’s 14th in the league in shot attempts on the advantage and third in scoring behind only Dylan Larkin and Artemi Panarin (ahead of Thursday night’s matchups). William Karlsson’s early-season consistency could also be worth a pick-up this week.
Aside from four-game streamers Pittsburgh, Nashville, and Carolina, there are four other teams with two light nights ahead — Detroit, Utah, Colorado, and Anaheim.
Artturi Lehkonen is back after missing the first month of the season. He is slotted in a very favorable slot alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen at even strength and on PP1. Valeri Nichushkin should return late next week as well, which should give Casey Mittelstadt more support on that second line.
In Utah, Matias Maccelli got the boost up to the second line with Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther. In 7:48 of five-on-five play, this trio had a 10-3 edge in shot attempts, 79 percent of the expected goal share, and outscored St. Louis 2-0. It’s an encouraging start for a combination of up-and-coming stars. Maccelli’s passing could help get Cooley and Guenther back on track.
Cam Talbot has been solid in net for the Red Wings and will likely get leaned on twice next week. The Penguins and Ducks are less-than-threatening opponents for a goalie. The Kings are a much more intimidating opponent, but it would give the veteran a chance for revenge against his last team.
Speaking of the Kings, they have one light night next week. So do the Maple Leafs, Blue Jackets, Flames, Blues, Canucks, Rangers, and Kraken.
Is Matthews Knies having a breakout season in Toronto? It’s starting to look that way. He has always been a solid fantasy option on paper, thanks to his role alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. The production just hasn’t always matched up with that potential. Now, he is hitting his stride at even strength and is earning more time on the top power play unit.
Honorable mentions: Gabriel Vilardi, Ryan Donato, Bowen Byram, Spencer Knight, Logan Thompson
(Photo of Rickard Rakell: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
