Consciously or subconsciously, A.J. Preller’s recruitment of Roki Sasaki, the sudden prize of this major-league offseason, might have begun in earnest on July 6. That was the day Padres starter Yu Darvish put himself on the restricted list to tend to a private family matter. For the next several weeks, Preller demonstrated a “level of feel” that later elicited open and uncommon admiration from Darvish and a prominent member of his camp.
Now, Sasaki — who Padres officials figured would be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines either this winter or next — is set to make the move from Japan. For guidance, Sasaki can turn to Darvish, who has been a friend, mentor and World Baseball Classic teammate.
It also feels noteworthy that Sasaki’s representation is expected to include Darvish’s longtime agent, Joel Wolfe, who publicly praised Preller for his handling of Darvish’s situation. Given the sometimes adversarial world of GM-agent relationships, the gesture was not typical.
“A.J. is a somewhat mysterious person, and I know to his staff and coaches, the way he operates, he moves at the speed of light and works all hours — literally,” Wolfe told The Athletic after Darvish rejoined the Padres in August.
“But throughout all of this, he was always there for Darvish every day if he ever needed him, whether it was to meet face to face or on the phone. And the one thing that came through that I realized early on is he knows Darvish much better than anyone in baseball. He’s known him longer even than I have because he met him and got to know him and know everything about him since Darvish was even in high school when A.J. was working for the Rangers, and knew everything about how he was raised and his family. I know that’s what Darvish was alluding to when he was talking to the media about A.J. being a true friend to him. He really meant it, that there were things that they could talk about that only A.J. would understand.
“And I’m grateful to A.J. for his support throughout this. I just want it to be said.”
None of this will hurt as the Padres attempt to lure Sasaki to San Diego.
Money does not appear to be a key determinant. Sasaki essentially will become available to all 30 teams if he is posted after Dec. 1. Yet, despite being the No. 3 ranked player on The Athletic’s top 40 MLB free agent big board, Sasaki still would be limited to signing a minor-league deal. While the Los Angeles Dodgers are seen as heavy favorites throughout the industry, Darvish’s presence and the goodwill Preller earned with Wolfe this summer might contribute to an advantage for the Padres over 28 other clubs.
And, in the end, none of this might matter much. Sasaki is not unique as a young Japanese pitcher who reveres and has a close relationship with Darvish. The draw of playing alongside Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the reigning World Series champion Dodgers — if Sasaki does not mind taking on the extra attention or playing in Ohtani’s shadow — could be tough to beat.
What’s certain is that Sasaki’s imminent free agency looms as the most pivotal opportunity of this Padres offseason.
The Padres are not expected to be a major player on the open market, at least in terms of spending large sums. Their estimated 2025 payroll, per FanGraphs, already is north of $200 million. Their projected luxury-tax number, for now, is above next year’s $241 million tax threshold.
Twice during an end-of-season press conference last month, while describing how the team planned to go about an offseason in which it must address obvious needs in left field, at catcher and in the starting rotation — especially after Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery — Preller used the word “responsibly.”
Landing Sasaki would make all of it easier. The lanky righty is not a finished product — and his career high in professional innings came in 2022, when he threw 129 1/3 innings — but he possesses ace-level big-league potential. A rotation featuring Michael King, Dylan Cease, Darvish and Sasaki would give the Padres a significantly higher ceiling than any number of other combinations that do not include Sasaki. And, most importantly, Sasaki would come at the cost of a modest nine-figure signing bonus, three years of league-minimum salary and three subsequent years of arbitration.
Roki Sasaki, playing with the slider that Yu Darvish helped him develop
— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) June 4, 2023
It would make for a nifty fit in San Diego’s payroll picture. Darvish, 38, will see his salary rise to $20 million next season. In 2027, Manny Machado’s compensation will jump to $35 million per year, while Fernando Tatis Jr.’s will increase to $25 million. The Padres’ collection of long-term contracts — from the aforementioned names to Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth — gives the organization stability but also limited flexibility to supplement a roster of aging and, in some cases, underperforming stars. For Preller and the Padres, watching Sasaki go to the Dodgers and their already-unrivaled resources would be a crushing development, both next year and for years to come.
The arrival of Jackson Merrill in 2024, of course, supplied immediate balance. It is difficult to overstate how much Merrill’s Rookie of the Year-caliber performance swung the fortunes of a team that went from a popular pick to finish third in the National League West to nearly eliminating the Dodgers in the National League Division Series. Sasaki would bring another infusion of tangible hope, even more so than Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries. Both of those prospects turned 18 this year. Sasaki, 23, is an accomplished Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher with the ability to star in the majors as soon as next April.
So, whenever he is posted, much depends on the Padres’ ability to recruit. League sources told The Athletic’s Will Sammon that Sasaki’s priorities will include stability, lifestyle, comfort and a team’s history of player development. San Diego can make a strong case that it offers each of the first three qualities. With Darvish and reliever Yuki Matsui in the clubhouse, and Japanese icon Hideo Nomo in the front office, the Padres are equipped to ease a potential transition.
Meanwhile, although the Padres have failed to develop a homegrown front-line starter in Preller’s decade as general manager, their track record for getting more out of pitchers at the big-league level has measurably improved under Ruben Niebla. The widely respected pitching coach last week signed a new multiyear contract after overseeing a top-five rotation by fWAR each of the past two seasons.
Sasaki may not be a finished product, but health permitting — Sammon reported that Sasaki missed time this year with an oblique issue and shoulder fatigue — there is reason to think he could provide 150 or so quality innings as soon as 2025. Aside from his work with the likes of Blake Snell, Darvish and Dylan Cease, Niebla has overseen the modernization of the Padres’ pitching program while helping former relievers such as Seth Lugo and Michael King successfully navigate sizable jumps in innings.
Like the Dodgers and other suitors, the Padres have thoroughly scouted Sasaki since he became a national star in Japan’s annual high school baseball tournament. In a sense, they have been through a similar recruitment process before; seven years ago, they looked on with significant disappointment as Ohtani chose to sign a minor-league contract with the Los Angeles Angels, who at the time offered the benefit of the designated hitter role.
Now, the Padres will again seek to separate themselves from a 30-team field. Soon, they should know if Preller’s deft handling of a recent situation helps in their pursuit of one of the most talented pitchers in the world.
“It’s one thing to know a player, but to really take the time to listen and understand and be a true friend to (Darvish) … you just don’t see very often that type of personal connection between front office executives and players,” Wolfe said in August.
Given how much hinges on Sasaki’s final decision, it couldn’t have hurt.
(Photo: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
