The Big Ten and SEC control the field of title hopefuls going into the stretch run, with nine of the top-10 odds favorites coming from the newly expanded conferences.
The Big Ten holds the top two spots, but curiously, undefeated Oregon isn’t the team leading the race. No. 2 Ohio State is the current odds darling at +300, edging the +350 Ducks despite losing to them in Week 7. It was only a one-point loss, but Oregon has the No. 1 ranking and hasn’t allowed an opponent to get within 21 points since then.
Oregon could sleepwalk to the conference title game, while the Buckeyes play undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan before the likely rematch between the two in December.
The Big Ten also boasts two other likely postseason locks in Penn State and Indiana, though their title odds are considerably longer. The Nittany Lions are +2000 to win it all, and the Hoosiers are +3000, but Indiana’s mojo has been so strong this season 30-1 might actually be good value. They still get a chance to down OSU and take on Oregon for the conference belt, but a loss to the Buckeyes likely won’t end their chance at a championship run.
The SEC is as deep as it has been in years, with five teams from the conference at 22-to-1 or better to win it all. Texas has never been far from the odds favorite this season, and at +450 is right with Oregon and OSU. There’s a jump to Georgia and Alabama, both at +800, and another to Ole Miss at +1000. Tennessee, despite having only one loss, is at +2200.
College football national title odds
SEC race is a tangled mess
The conference’s depth also means there isn’t a clear top dog in the conference, and right now untangling the SEC title scenarios is a nightmare. There’s a slim chance for an eight-way first-place tie and a much bigger chance for a seven-way second-place tie. Good luck with all that. Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all have paths to the postseason, with Texas being the closest to a sure thing of that group.
Georgia’s slip-up against Ole Miss means the Bulldogs will likely need an at-large bid, and with upcoming games against Tennessee and Georgia Tech, they’ll have to earn it. Ole Miss went from outside the top 12 to having a very real shot at an at-large bid as well if the Rebels finish 10-2.
Tennessee is sitting pretty. A win against Georgia would give them a fast pass to the SEC title game and even a loss would leave the Vols among the top-ranked two-loss teams.
If A&M beats Texas in the final week, the Aggies will play for the conference title. If they lose either game, they’re likely out with three losses.
Alabama ended LSU’s chances with a statement beatdown and has a clear edge in the 10-2 at-large sweepstakes thanks to its current ranking and the name on the jersey. The Crimson Tide would do well to avoid the SEC title game (and the risk of a third loss) altogether and host a first-round game.
Are Big 12 and ACC one-bid leagues?
The Big 12 has four teams with some playoff life, but is on track to send just one to the postseason. If BYU wins out, that means both Iowa State and Kansas State would have three losses (and they play each other to end the season), as would Colorado. None of those resumes make the playoffs. Funny enough, Colorado has better national championship odds (+6600) than BYU (+8000). Must be the Heisman front-runner bump.
If the Cougars lose to the Buffs or anyone else in the conference title game, they could still make the playoffs with one loss but would need help. If they lose two, the Big 12 could fail to send anyone. More on that in a moment.
The ACC Championship Game seems like a win-or-go-home situation for whoever makes it, and right now that looks like SMU and Miami. The Hurricanes might be able to sustain a second loss, but it would take serious good will to keep them in the top 12. Cam Ward is a Heisman finalist contender and the Canes are +3500 to win the whole thing, but there will be a long list of two-loss teams with better cases (and maybe a one-loss BYU too).
The Mustangs are in the same boat with an even bigger hole if they lose, because their loss to BYU this season would make it impossible to slip past them in the rankings even if the Cougars lost a game. Clemson plays a sputtering Pittsburgh this week and is favored to knock them out of the conference race, but the Tigers lose tiebreakers to both SMU and Miami, so they’d need a lot of help to get to the conference title game.
Boise State and Army could make things weird
Ashton Jeanty and Boise State are sprinting toward a showdown with Colorado State for the Mountain West championship and with it, their ticket to the postseason. Despite needing a conference title to qualify, the Broncos are an intriguing national champion bet at +10000. Jeanty is a thunderstorm on two legs, with the power to single-handedly overwhelm a defense. Plus, Boise’s only loss was to No. 1 Oregon via a last-second field goal. It’s a long shot, but a fun one to ride.
Speaking of longshots, the upcoming Army-Notre Dame game has some fun implications. Notre Dame is a heavy favorite to make the postseason and +2200 to win the whole thing, but the Fighting Irish have a loss to Northern Illinois. Army is undefeated and hadn’t trailed all season until last week (briefly falling behind 3-0). The Black Knights’ schedule is so soft they barely cracked the top 25 in the first committee rankings, but what happens if they beat the Irish? It would end Notre Dame’s postseason hopes while giving Army a quality win.
The committee would have to at least consider leapfrogging Army over Boise State in the rankings in this scenario, even if the Broncos’ only loss was a narrow one at Oregon. But if not Boise State, a non-BYU Big 12 champ could be vulnerable.
Remember, there are no automatic bids for winning a conference. The invites go to the five highest-ranked conference winners, then the next seven highest-ranked teams. Simply winning the Big 12 doesn’t guarantee a playoff berth. If a two-loss Colorado or KSU wins the conference, are they a higher-ranked conference winner than undefeated Army and one-loss Boise State? It’s possible the committee says no. It’s also possible a one-loss BYU could still outrank them overall, along with the field of SEC and Big Ten teams. It may seem far-fetched, but there’s a version of this where the Big 12 gets shut out entirely.
An Army loss to Notre Dame would clear this up, but a win would mean a thriving playoff debate industry for weeks leading up to the final call on December 8.
(Photo of Emeka Egbuka: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
