Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
I have to start with the one guy who you should be targeting on waivers. Audric Estime is viewed as a zero in the passing game but caught 17 passes last year at Notre Dame and had receiving ability as a strength on the NFL’s draft scouting report. He averaged over 10 yards per catch in his college career and led his conference with 6.4 yards per rushing attempt. He’s averaging 5.1 per rush for Denver this year, crushing both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin — yes, I know it’s a tiny sample size. There are no updates on Tyler Badie returning. Estime had 45% of snaps, but Sean Payton said after the game he was impressed and that Estime would get more action. I’m at 50% to 100% of remaining FAAB depending on your needs and whether you can do zero bids (in case you deplete your FAAB).
Two other backs are worthy of pickups. Gus Edwards is widely available and the clear No. 2 back for a Chargers team that wants to be 60% runs. And Cam Akers is also a clear No. 2 on the Vikings. Both Los Angeles and Minnesota do not want to press their oft-injured starters into anything approaching bell-cow status.
Chuba Hubbard checked in at No. 1 at an insane 55.2% share of touches/snaps. Over 60% of Jonathon Brooks managers have held on to him and we’re in Week 11. Talk about commitment to the bit. Hubbard is too good for Brooks to have a playable role. At first it was, “He’ll be back in four weeks.” Then, “Okay, Week 8 — I can wait.” Then Week 10. Now it’s, “He’ll be back after the bye.”
For the record, I have to note that Christian McCaffrey was No. 11 and that means only the McCaffrey managers should roster the 49ers backups — Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo. If you have these guys without McCaffrey, I’d take anything I could get from the McCaffrey manager in a deal given many trade deadlines are this week.
There was a pretty even split with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving though Irving, as always, was clearly better. The Bucs are off this week.
The Cowboys are a disaster, but Rico Dowdle is available in many leagues and is a starter with a 27% rate, which is just under the 30% mark that is an automatic start. I’m much less confident in my belief that the Cowboys will start Trey Lance, who must be awful in practice.
Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson were viewed as interchangeable in draft season, but Robinson is way ahead of Hall now given that Hall has apparently lost the goal-line work. He’s definitely no longer the short-yardage back.
Receiver Targets
Noah Brown is the top target again at wide receiver. I’ve mentioned him here before but he remains rostered in just 13% of Yahoo leagues.
Kayshon Boutte is worthy of consideration at No. 26 and he even had decent efficiency. His snap rate in Week 10 was 97%. It was 96% in Week 9. He’s averaging almost nine yards per target for the season.
Even though Jalen Coker is a fantasy favorite among the sharps, I’d exercise caution because Adam Thielen is expected back for Carolina’s next game.
You can’t pick him up, but Calvin Ridley was No. 1 in market share this past week. He should now be started everywhere for this reason, not the TDs in Week 10.
Will Dissly was the No. 2 tight end and he’s been great in market share (top 10 in targets at the position over the past five weeks). Hayden Hurst had a big drop and Justin Herbert ignored him the rest of the game.
In this Giants offense, Malik Nabers can’t survive at No. 17 in our model He has to be about 10 points higher, as we knew when we drafted him. That’s 37% of attempts, not 27%.
Last week, I noted what a joke it was that Courtland Sutton was No. 42 in the industry consensus rest-of-season ranks, and now he’s moved all the way up to… No. 38. Sigh. He’s No. 20 or better in the model every week and what’s the argument that he’ll underperform his market share? He’s always been a good TD scorer. Bo Nix has been impressive. If this is your last week trading, you can probably get a massive discount on Sutton.
Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson and Deebo Samuel all had mystifyingly bad rankings in the model. I could say the same about DeAndre Hopkins (69th) but that was due to Patrick Surtain II. I wouldn’t worry at all about Hopkins’ targets.
(Top photo of Audric Estime, Courtland Sutton: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)
