It’s time for Corbin Burnes to change teams again. Maybe.
The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner was traded to the Baltimore Orioles last offseason, and after his fourth straight All-Star selection, he’s now the top starting pitcher on the free agent market, available to any team in need of a consistent top-of-the-rotation ace.
Including, perhaps, the Orioles.
The Athletic projected a seven-year, $217 million deal for Burnes, a contract that would match David Price and Clayton Kershaw for the 11th-highest average annual value ever given to a starting pitcher. While no team feels it has enough pitching, that price tag is going to eliminate several suitors.
Here, then, is an alphabetical-order look at nine potential fits for the top free-agent pitcher. (We did the same for the top free agent bat, Juan Soto, earlier this week) All would use Burnes in the same way — as an impact starter at the top of the rotation — but the motivation, long-term impact, and roster implications will be different. Which teams need him the most, which are best positioned to take advantage of his arm, and which might be straining to make him fit?
Baltimore Orioles
With their relatively cheap core of young position players, and their rotation thinned by injuries, the Orioles are obvious candidates to re-sign Burnes. Getting it done might be a matter of money, but general manager Mike Elias has said he has money to spend in the team’s first offseason under new ownership. He’s also said he’s in the market for a pitcher who can “lead” the rotation. Burnes certainly fits.
The Orioles have the framework of a good rotation already. Zach Eflin is under contract for one more year (with a raise), and the team should have homegrown Grayson Rodriguez back from injury. Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and Trevor Rogers could round out the rotation while Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are recovering from elbow surgery. It’s not a bad place to start, but that rotation looks a lot better and more reliable with Burnes taking the ball on Opening Day.
Boston Red Sox
After missing the playoffs five of the past six years, the Red Sox are signaling a willingness to spend this offseason. What exactly that means, though, remains to be seen as the Red Sox have been fairly difficult to read in recent years. They promised “full throttle” last season, then did anything but.
The Red Sox should be motivated, though, and pitching is their most glaring need. The team could use a right-handed bat and perhaps an infielder, but the Red Sox farm system is rich in position players, while pitching has been a constant weakness. Tanner Houck is returning from a career-best season, Brayan Bello pitched well in the second half, the team gave Nick Pivetta a qualifying offer, Kutter Crawford will be back, and Lucas Giolito should return from injury. The rotation cupboard isn’t bare, but a front-line starter would be a significant difference maker, and Burnes would give the Red Sox both impact and dependability (the latter might be most appealing given their depth issues in recent years).
Chicago Cubs
It has now been eight years since the Cubs won a postseason game, despite it perpetually feeling like they’re in a competitive window. Something isn’t quite working, and there’s nothing like money when it comes to fixing a problem.
Chicago’s rotation is actually quite sharp. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad are all quality starters. Adding Burnes, however, would add an ace. It would allow some of their options to be utilized more as depth, or in the bullpen.
This past season, Chicago was 10th overall in ERA. Adding Burnes could turn them into a pitching juggernaut of sorts. That might be enough to get them in position to win a division that, quite frankly, should be winnable regardless.
Detroit Tigers
Is this the time for the Tigers to invest? After a late-season playoff run, Tigers fans are surely saying yes, but which is the priority: a second front-line starter to pair with Tarik Skubal, or a right-handed bat to ideally play one of the infield corners? (And yes, we know the bullpen needs work, too.)
The Tigers did well last winter by signing Jack Flaherty to a one-year deal, and Burnes might be a tier too high for them this offseason, but he and Skubal would form one of the best one-two punches in baseball, with Reese Olson and top prospect Jackson Jobe giving the rotation even more upside. Add Casey Mize, Keider Montero and Kenta Maeda and that’s a rotation with impact, upside and depth. The lineup is awfully young and very left-handed, but with Skubal already in place, the Tigers could lean into a strength and try to pitch their way back into October.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Burnes might not be Los Angeles’ top pitching priority with Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki soon to be posted and made available to MLB clubs. But that’s no reason to discount their potential courtship of the Southern California native.
The Dodgers utilized the depths of their pitching corps to win the World Series. But every round they were justifiably doubted because they were quite thin with who they had available.
Both Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler are now free agents. Gavin Stone and River Ryan are both likely to miss the 2025 season due to injury. Clayton Kershaw, also a free agent, will be 37 years old. And Tyler Glasnow has never pitched more than 134 innings in a big league season.
So yes, the Dodgers have a need for pitching. And they’ll have the funds to make it happen.
New York Mets
The Mets’ miraculous NLCS run this October was buoyed by Grimace, a playoff pumpkin, a World War II veteran named Seymour Weiner and their pop star second baseman. It was not, however, carried by an ace pitcher. Sure, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino overperformed expectations late in the season, but both are currently free agents as well.
Starting pitching is an area of significant need for the Mets. Last offseason, owner Steve Cohen telegraphed that 2024 would be a rebuilding year for his team. This offseason, however, New York is ready to push its chips in. Burnes gives them a bona fide ace, and a starting pitcher to build a contender around. As of now, the only starters locked up include Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill.
The Mets have around $180 million coming off their payroll. They have room to spend, and an owner who will open his checkbook. Expect the Mets to be in on nearly every high-profile free agent this offseason, with Burnes at the top of the list on the pitching side.
New York Yankees
It feels impossible, every offseason, to rule out the Yankees on anyone. That said, they seem clearly to have their eyes set on a different top-of-the-market target. Surely, Juan Soto is the priority. But does that rule out Burnes? Could Burnes be a consolation prize if Soto ends up in Queens or D.C. or San Francisco?
The Yankees don’t necessarily need a starting pitcher. Gerrit Cole is coming back, and they invested a few years ago in Carlos Rodón. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt seem locked into rotation jobs, and Marcus Stroman will be back for another year. They also still have Nestor Cortes and some depth options in Triple A. But, again, it’s hard to count out the Yankees on anyone. They might be the longshot on this list — we left out the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, etc. — but they remain the Yankees. It’s hard to completely dismiss them when a Cy Young winner hits the open market.
San Diego Padres
The Padres postseason hadn’t even ended by the time their heads shifted toward the Corbin Burnes sweepstakes. Joe Musgrove’s early-October elbow injury leaves San Diego with a big hole in an otherwise very strong rotation.
They’ll still have Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease and Michael King as rotation anchors. But in the ultra-competitive NL West, the Padres’ potential bidding is motivated both by the desire to acquire an ace — and also to ensure one of their rivals does not.
San Diego was arguably the best team on paper this postseason. They were on the doorstep of the World Series in 2022. This franchise is so close to breaking through. Burnes may well be the pitcher who can get them there.
San Francisco Giants
It stands to reason that Buster Posey will want to make a big offseason splash in his first season as San Francisco’s head of baseball operations. The narrative under the recently fired Farhan Zaidi was that the Giants couldn’t close the deal on upper-echelon free agents. Posey, one figures, will be itching to change that.
The Giants have an ace in Logan Webb. They have a former Cy Young winner, and current question mark, in Robbie Ray.
Beyond that, it’s unclear if Jordan Hicks will go back into the rotation, or remain in the bullpen. Hayden Birdsong figures to be a starter. But it’s far from set. And clearly, a starter like Burnes would be massive.
San Francisco can feel its NL West relevance slipping a bit. The rival Dodgers just won it all. The Padres feel like a clear-cut No. 2. And the 2023 National League champion Diamondbacks aren’t going anywhere, either. The Giants need to make some moves to regain their footing.
(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
