1. Home
  3. Sport

Russell Wilson finds a way, Jets' defense unravels, more Week 10 thoughts: Quick Outs

13 November 2024Last Update :
Russell Wilson finds a way, Jets' defense unravels, more Week 10 thoughts: Quick Outs

Nothing about Week 10 made any sense. A handful of the best teams won games they did not deserve, almost every quarterback in the league played below their level and kickers had a nightmare of a Sunday. Some games checked all three boxes.

I honestly don’t know how much to take away from all of the NFL’s best teams playing bizarre games at the same time, so, instead, we’re going to focus on a few other teams take stock of where they’re at, a little more than halfway through the season.

Russell Wilson finally gets the quarterback charting spotlight after his third straight win. We also dive into just how bad the New York Jets have been since firing Robert Saleh, how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense remains competitive and why I don’t care that the Atlanta Falcons lost on Sunday.

Let’s get into it.

QB charting: Russell Wilson

The construct of Pittsburgh’s Wilson-led offense has not been a mystery — run the ball, attack the short areas with rollouts and take seemingly endless shots down the field. That was always going to be what it looked like with Wilson behind center. The question was whether it could work and be any more effective than the low-volatility play Justin Fields provided.

Three weeks in, and it’s fair to say the Wilson offense certainly has a higher ceiling. All the vertical shots Wilson is willing to take have unlocked the offense’s explosive potential. It’s come at the cost of down-to-down efficiency and the ability to attack every area of the field, but maybe that just doesn’t matter if Pittsburgh is going to continue improving its rushing attack and playing top-eight defense.

Wilson was accurate on 17 of 28 passes (60.71 percent) Sunday. That’s mostly reflective of the passes he tried to throw, not his ability to hit them.

In fact, Wilson was quite accurate on short throws, hitting 10 of 12 passes thrown between one and 10 yards, including a touchdown to Pat Freiermuth on a flat route. Wilson’s teammates just failed to hold up their end of the bargain, dropping three of those 12 attempts.

Russell Wilson’s Week 10 numbers
Comp Att TDs WR Adj INT
Total
17 (3 drops)
28 (1 throwaway)
3
1
1 (1 Pass def.)
Under pressure
4 (1 drop)
10
1
0
1
Out of pocket
4 (1 drop)
7 (1 throwaway)
0
0
1
5-plus pass rushers
6
12 (1 throwaway)
2
1
0
Man coverage
8 (1 drop)
14
2
0
0
Zone coverage
8 (2 drops)
12 (1 throwaway)
1
1
1
Tight-window throws
4 (1 drop)
10
1
1
1
Open-window throws
12 (2 drops)
14
2
0
0

Wilson avoided the intermediate area like the plague, as he often does — just three of his attempts were in the range of 11 to 20 yards. That’s funny on its own, but even more so considering how willing Wilson was to chuck it down the field. Eight of his attempts were beyond 20 yards, at least half of which were just one-on-one heaves.

To his credit, Wilson hit the two he needed the most.

The first was an exquisite deep corner route to George Pickens in the end zone to kick off the game’s scoring. Pickens had to make a wild adjustment behind his back to find the ball, but high and inside was the best spot to place a throw against a defensive back playing low and ready to drive to the sideline.

Wilson also finished the game with a go ball to Mike Williams — no double moves or fancy route combinations; just a pure, simple go ball.

Wilson faded away from pressure to uncork the 32-yard bomb, dropping it right in Williams’ breadbasket for the go-ahead score.

Wilson hadn’t been any good under pressure before that point, either — he was 3-of-9 with a pick when pressured before that game-saving moment. He found the magic when he needed it most, though, and that’s all that mattered in the end.

Truth be told, I’m still not sure how much I buy the Wilson offense in Pittsburgh. It’s getting away with shot plays at a rate that doesn’t feel sustainable, and nothing else about the offense is anything more than adequate.

The good news is Wilson’s 3-0 start has afforded the Steelers some real estate to work through any offensive woes that might crop up when the deep shots stop hitting. They are 7-2 with all of their division games still on the table, and you know Mike Tomlin is always good for taking games off his AFC North friends, one way or another.

Tomlin and Wilson have a ton of time — and margin for error — to find the best, most consistent version of this offense.

Stat check: The New York Jets’ defensive EPA/play

Sometimes, the energy in the building turns for the better after a midseason coach firing. Maybe the scheme on one side of the ball gets overhauled. However small it may be, there’s usually something that improves once the head coach is gone.

That hasn’t been the case for the Jets. Everything has gone from bad to worse since the moment the Jets fired Robert Saleh after a 2-3 start. New York has since won a single game out of its last five — a win defined more by C.J. Stroud having the most uncharacteristic performance of his career than anything the Jets did.

The record isn’t the real sticking point, though. What’s really worth latching onto is that the Jets have been the worst defense in the league since firing their defensive-minded head coach.

Through the first five weeks of the season, the Jets ranked sixth in EPA per play as a defense, according to TruMedia. Their pass rush didn’t feel as dominant as it could have, and they weren’t generating many turnovers, but their down-to-down success was stellar — only the Denver Broncos had a higher success rate at that point.

But the Jets have collapsed. They are now middle of the pack in success rate, dead last in EPA per play allowed (-0.17), and they’ve recorded just one turnover since the start of Week 6.

There are issues aplenty. First, the Jets promoted defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to head coach. So, not only did they fire their actual defensive cornerstone, but they promoted the guy below him to oversee the entire team. As a result, the coaching on the defensive side of the ball took a huge hit.

It’s not just a matter of scheme, however, but also of details and intensity. Last week’s blowout at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals was the perfect example. NextGenStats charted the Jets with 20 missed tackles Sunday, tied for the most by any team in a single game this season.

Firing Saleh didn’t make sense at the moment, and it looks worse five weeks later.

Anatomy of a highlight: Rachaad White’s red-zone screen TD

Step aside, Andy Reid. There’s a new screen king making a name for himself.

Liam Coen has gotten the most out of this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense for myriad reasons. Coen’s use of motion is nifty, for one, and has simplified Baker Mayfield’s job in a lot of ways. The run game finally found a groove, after years of being the worst operation in the league under previous coaches. Even Coen’s unique personnel usage, particularly his two running back sets, is fun to keep an eye on.

It’s the screens that really put things over the top, though. Well-timed and well-designed screens are free yardage. They’re a good way to let the quarterback take a play “off” and facilitate a stress-free opportunity to get the ball in a talented player’s hands. Per TruMedia, the Bucs rank first in running back screen attempts (20) and third in EPA per dropback (0.53) on those plays.

Let’s look at White’s touchdown Sunday to understand why this stuff works so well.

The Bucs push tight end Payne Durham (87) to the perimeter on a fast motion just before the snap. From the defense’s perspective, Durham could be using that running start to get to the corner on the outside while the two receivers block the linebackers and safeties from the inside, or he could be fanning outside by himself while the receivers run routes to set up a swing screen that every team in the NFL runs nowadays.

Either way, he’s got a running start into space, with a running back immediately following in his footsteps at the snap.

But as soon as White gets outside of the tackle box, he reverses course. San Francisco’s strong safety, strongside linebacker and middle linebacker are all flowing out to the right side with Durham’s motion, only for White to cut back on a sharp angle for a screen back over the middle. Fred Warner (No. 54) nearly makes a superstar play around a block to tackle White, but the strong safety and strongside linebacker are nowhere near the play to help him out, letting White make one cut before strolling into the end zone.

Plays like that have done a ton of heavy lifting for the Bucs. And Coen has done a wonderful job of using a defense’s eyes and tendencies against them to generate cheap, easy yardage like this at least a couple times a game.

Screens can only be so much of the offense, of course, but they are devastating when they work as well as they do for the Bucs. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the lineup, Coen is finding ways to give this offense a chance.

Scramble drill: The Atlanta Falcons’ loss is a mirage

A lot of teams — the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings and 49ers, to name a few — escaped Sunday with wins they didn’t really deserve.

True to form, the Falcons caught the other end of things. They thoroughly outplayed the New Orleans Saints — and it didn’t matter. They still found a way to lose off of a small handful of game-swinging plays.

When Atlanta had the ball, it moved down the field at will. The Falcons finished the day with a 51.2 percent offensive success rate, per TruMedia. (Only the Arizona Cardinals were better in Week 10.) Moreover, a stunning 58.8 percent of their rushing plays were successful, the best mark of any team in Week 10.

Getting the ball into at least field-goal range wasn’t a problem. The field goals themselves, however, were. Kicker Younghoe Koo missed three of four attempts, including a 46-yarder with six minutes left that would have tied the game. He also missed from 53 and 35 yards in the first half. Mind you, this game was played in a dome.

Atlanta also blew a chance at the end zone on its first drive out of the half. On first-and-goal from the 9, Bijan Robinson raced to the right pylon and gained eight yards. Unfortunately, guard Chris Lindstrom was called for an illegal low block, then Darnell Mooney followed that mistake with a false start. A potential second-and-goal from the 1 became first-and-goal from the 25 in the blink of an eye. The Falcons eventually settled for the one field goal Koo actually hit.

On the flip side, the Falcons smothered the Saints’ offense for all but two plays. The Saints’ offense finished the day with a 32.7 percent offensive success rate, the fifth-lowest mark Sunday. It couldn’t get its zone-run game going, and Derek Carr wasn’t doing a whole lot to move the chains consistently.

The Saints made up for all their sloppiness with two explosive shots to — of all people — Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Carr hit Valdes-Scantling for a 40-yard touchdown, then found him for a 67-yarder down to the Atlanta 2 on the Saints’ next drive. Those two plays combined made up about 40 percent of Carr’s passing yards on the day.

Look, I know the scoreboard says what it says: The Falcons lost the game. They deserved to lose the game with some of the big plays they allowed and critical scoring mistakes they made.

But the point is I don’t feel any worse about this Falcons team after the loss. A franchise prone to losing stupid games lost a stupid game to a divisional rival, despite being the better team on that particular day. It happens.

(Top photo: Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Recent