HOUSTON — Retaining Alex Bregman is the Houston Astros’ “biggest priority” according to general manager Dana Brown, a man who hasn’t envisioned any other scenario.
“Our mindset right now is that he’s not going elsewhere and we want to sign him,” Brown said last week at the general managers’ meetings. “If he ends up going elsewhere, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there, but I’m going into this offseason with the thought that we’re going to get Bregman back.”
Perhaps Brown meant to project confidence for a fan base far too familiar with its favorite players fleeing in free agency. It’s difficult to envision Brown and his baseball operations department haven’t considered contingency plans, especially with owner Jim Crane’s aversion to the sort of contract it will take to keep Bregman.
All indications are the Astros’ pursuit of Bregman is serious, perhaps more so than any of the past free agents they’ve allowed to depart, but it guarantees nothing. Houston must have alternate plans for life without Bregman. Here are three avenues it could explore.
Sign a stopgap
The third-base market behind Bregman is nearly nonexistent. Paul DeJong, Gio Urshela, Yoán Moncada and Jose Iglesias are perhaps the most recognizable names, but none profiles as a long-term solution.
But, if Houston finds itself in this scenario, its goal should be finding someone with enough upside to play a complementary role on a contending team. Both Iglesias and DeJong just accomplished it for clubs that played deep into October — DeJong for the Kansas City Royals and Iglesias for the New York Mets.
Both players do show some of the same aggressive offensive tendencies Brown wants the Astros to avoid. Iglesias swung at a 52.5 percent clip this past season and chased 39.5 percent of the time, but still managed a .381 on-base percentage and .830 OPS in 291 plate appearances. DeJong’s 37.8 percent first-pitch swing rate was 10 percentage points above league average. His swing rate spiked from 53.2 percent in 2023 to 58 percent in 2024.
Houston’s 2025 starting rotation will be headlined by two of baseball’s best ground-ball pitchers, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, so defensive aptitude could supersede offense in the Astros’ search for a third baseman. The team must still upgrade the lineup but could do so at either first base or a spot in the outfield.
According to Baseball-Reference, Iglesias was worth 3.1 wins above replacement in just 85 games. He is primarily a shortstop, but he has played 73 games at third over the last two seasons. DeJong finished his 37-game tenure in Kansas City worth six outs above average at third base, according to Baseball Savant. DeJong and Astros manager Joe Espada share the same representation, too.
Moncada may be the most fascinating candidate in this shallow pool. Once the sport’s top prospect and a player who commanded a $70 million contract extension, Moncada has played in just 208 games across the past three seasons. Injuries plagued him. It stands to reason the Chicago White Sox’s sorry state as a franchise did, too.
Moncada produced a 4 WAR season as recently as 2021. During the last three seasons in which he’s played 100 games — 2019, 2021 and 2022 — Moncada finished worth at least two outs above average at third base. He turns 30 in May and received a $5 million buyout when Chicago declined his club option earlier this winter.
Brown is often bullish on potential. This winter, he already traded for former first-round pick Taylor Trammell in hopes of seeing him “get with an organization and turn the corner.” Might that precedent extend to Moncada?
Scour the trade market
Though the Astros may not have the prospect capital to win bidding wars for them, exploring trades for either the St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado or Philadelphia Phillies’ Alec Bohm could offer the stability and upside that one of the aforementioned free agents cannot.
Arenado remains one of this generation’s greatest defensive third basemen, even if decline has crept into his offensive game. Bohm is 28 and just made his first All-Star team.
Arenado has three years remaining on the nine-year, $275 million deal he signed in 2019. Whether the Astros have enough financial flexibility to absorb any of it is a legitimate question. So is the logic of shelling out that sort of money for Arenado and not one of the faces of Houston’s golden era.
You’ll see this play on all the highlight shows tonight — #STLCards star third baseman Nolan Arenado pulled off the almost unthinkable 5-3 double play by stepping on second himself and throwing onto first base for the twin killing. pic.twitter.com/OF0kGUlMBr
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) July 13, 2024
Houston just carried the highest payroll in franchise history and will pay luxury tax penalties for the first time in Crane’s ownership tenure. It’s unclear whether Crane would authorize crossing the luxury tax again in 2025, but outside approximations have the Astros about $10 million away from the first threshold.
According to Cot’s Contracts, Arenado will count for $30,555,555 against the luxury tax in 2025. The Colorado Rockies will pay $5 million of Arenado’s salary as part of their trade with the Cardinals, lowering that number slightly.
If the Cardinals are desperate to offload Arenado as part of their “reset,” they could lessen it more by paying down some of the salary. Doing so comes with the expectations of better prospects in return, a promise the Astros will struggle to fulfill. Their farm system is, according to one rival scout, “extremely thin (with) not a ton of quality depth and zero top-end talent.”
Houston will confront the same problem if it pursues Bohm, but will have to worry far less about payroll implications. MLB Trade Rumors projects Bohm will make $8.1 million during his second trip through the arbitration process.
Bohm blossomed into a more dependable defensive third baseman this season and, in what could further intrigue the Astros, has also started 84 major-league games at first base.
The Astros’ farm system was in decline upon Brown’s arrival two winters ago. He’s still managed to engineer trades for Kendall Graveman, Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi, offering at least some hope Houston could be a serious contender for either Arenado or Bohm.
Let the kid(s) play
The Astros traveled this path after allowing their last homegrown superstar to walk, handing 24-year-old Jeremy Peña the unenviable task of replacing Carlos Correa at shortstop. Peña produced a five-win season, won a Gold Glove and became the youngest position player in major-league history to win World Series MVP.
Peña is the exception, not the norm. Counting on untested prospects to play pivotal roles for championship teams is a dangerous gamble, even if Brown continues to boast he’s unafraid to push young players.
Peña always hovered over Correa’s free agency as a possible heir apparent. No such player exists now that Bregman is on the open market. Playing utilityman Mauricio Dubón in a timeshare with a prospect looms as a potential solution if Bregman departs, but it may not inspire much confidence.
Houston’s most major-league-ready infield prospect is Zach Dezenzo, a college shortstop whom Brown acknowledged “has got a little more work to do at third base.” That Dezenzo earned a call-up after just 11 Triple-A games and made the Astros’ Wild Card Series roster signals how highly the organization thinks of him. It’s easy to envision him making a sizable impact on the 2025 Astros — just not at third base.
“Can he get it done? Yes. But if we have Bregman, it will be tough for him to get reps there,” Brown said. “I think more so first base with some potential to play left (field), maybe on certain games if we’re facing a right-handed pitcher. … Or if he comes into camp and he plays well, maybe first base will be his everyday job.”
Houston’s only other logical options are Shay Whitcomb and Brice Matthews, neither of whom did anything last season to suggest they’re ready to assume an everyday role at such a pivotal position. Whitcomb made five errors in 30 big-league chances at third base. Matthews, Brown’s first draft pick as a general manager, played just 179 minor-league innings at third base and struggled mightily at the plate in his first exposure to Triple A.
(Top photo of Jose Iglesias: Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
