NFL Week 11 has some awfully chalky matchups that point to obvious survivor pool picks. But do you even have the Detroit Lions left? Or maybe you’re thinking, sure, the Lions are 13-point favorites over the Jaguars this week, but they also could be one of the most usable teams in Weeks 12 and 13. Should I use them now?
We’re discussing those exact questions — and many others —with our survivor columnists Renee Miller and Adam Gretz. First, they’ll give readers personalized strategy advice from the mailbag, then share their chalk picks and contrarian picks for the week.
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Week 11 survivor pool Q&A
Questions are lightly edited for clarity.
Question from Gary F.: “I have Detroit available but don’t want to use them. Can you rank who you would choose for Week 11 out of Indianapolis, Miami, LA Rams, and Minnesota? Thanks.”
Renee: It makes sense you don’t want to use Detroit, as the Lions are very usable for the next two weeks (facing the Colts, then the Bears) in addition to this week when they are the biggest favorite. You’ll find my case for Miami and against Indianapolis below — these are my bookends of your four. Los Angeles and Minnesota are tricky. Adam does a good job making the case for the Rams below, but I also believe in the Vikings despite their relatively weak win last week — because of their defense. So, I’d rank your choices as Miami, Minnesota, LA and Indy.
Question from Anonymous: “My options this week are the Vikings, Packers, Rams or Dolphins. Which one should I take? I’m one of three people remaining in my family pool. I grew up in Chicago rooting for the Bears, so please don’t tell me to pick the Packers!”
Adam: I have good news and bad news for you, my friend. The bad news? The Packers would be a good pick. The good news? If you can’t bring yourself to pick the Packers and position yourself to root for them against your Bears, you have at least three really good options as alternatives.
Minnesota has been trending in the wrong direction for a few weeks now, but Tennessee is awful and has not even been remotely competitive against potential playoff teams.
The Rams play the Patriots, who have been playing better and finding improved results the past three weeks, but those games have come against the Jets, Titans and Bears. Even at 4-5, the Rams are a significantly tougher matchup and should be able to exploit some of the Patriots’ weaknesses.
The Dolphins also at least look like a competent team with Tua Tagovailoa back, and they are getting a bad Raiders team that doesn’t really have anything going for it.
If I had to rank them in order of confidence, I would go: Vikings, Packers, Dolphins, Rams.
Question from Michael G.: “There are six people left in my pool, which originally had 660. For Week 11, do I take the Vikings or the Texans?”
Renee: Congratulations, you are the 1 percent! Let’s line up the variables. Both are on the road. Houston is a slightly bigger favorite, while Minnesota has the better record overall and on the road (3-1 vs. 2-3). Houston is on a two-game losing streak (NY Jets, Detroit), while Minnesota has recently beaten Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Houston dominates time of possession, while Minnesota leads the NFL in takeaways and ranks fourth in sacks.
What it really comes down to, though, is the average scoring margin. Minnesota is +7.1 points, while Houston is -0.2 points. The Vikings allow the third-fewest points to opponents while scoring the ninth-most. I’m pointing out all of these stats to justify my pick of Minnesota, but there is also something about Dallas being a big underdog at home that makes me doubt picking Houston.
Question from Bryanhoren: “Seems crazy to pick a road divisional match. But Green Bay has owned Chicago lately and is coming off a bye with Jaire Alexander back. Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t scored a TD in two weeks. Is Green Bay a crazy option? (I used the Lions already, unfortunately.)”
Adam: While I tend to agree that picking a road divisional matchup could be crazy, and often is, I do not think Green Bay is an absurd option this week for every reason you just mentioned. The Bears have not scored a touchdown in two weeks, they changed offensive coordinators on Tuesday, and they look to be a team going through the motions since that game in Washington. Jayden Daniels’ “Hail Mary” pass seemed to suck every ounce of positive vibes away from Chicago. Caleb Williams is struggling, and even though Matt LaFleur is only 4-4 coming off a bye, he is 15-9 when his team has a rest advantage. Add in the quarterback advantage that the Packers have, as well as the historical one-sided dominance here, and I do not think Green Bay is a crazy pick. I would be comfortable suggesting the Packers this week.
Week 11 chalk picks
Highest pick percentage by week: Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles (twice), Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers
The table below lists Yahoo Fantasy’s five most popular survivor picks for Week 11, with the percentage of pick distribution for each team and the point spread from BetMGM for each of their games as of Nov. 12.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lions |
vs. Jaguars
|
36.29%
|
-13
|
 Dolphins |
vs. Raiders
|
22.31%
|
-8
|
 Packers |
at Bears
|
10.75%
|
-6.5
|
 Vikings |
at Titans
|
8.33%
|
-6
|
 Texans |
at Cowboys
|
5.65%
|
-7.5
|
Adam: Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears
There are certainly bigger favorites in the NFL this week, including Detroit (who is off-limits to us since they were already a most popular pick) and Houston. The Texans are certainly very tempting at Dallas, but they still have Tennessee and Jacksonville coming up in back-to-back weeks, so I would hold on to them for one of those two games and go with the Packers this week if that is an option for you.
Not only are the Packers simply a better team than the Bears, but this has become one of the most one-sided rivalries in the league. The Packers have won eight in a row against Chicago, 15 out of 16 and 25 out of 29 going back to the start of the 2010 season. What reason is there to believe that the trend will change this week?
The Bears offense has somehow regressed from where it was a year ago, has not scored a touchdown in two weeks and now has to face a team that has completely owned them for the past 15 years. Not only that, the Packers are coming in off of a bye week and have had an extra week to prepare. At some point, you have to think that Jordan Love will have a breakout game soon. Why not this week?
The Bears look like a team going through the motions, and Caleb Williams looks like a young quarterback quickly running out of confidence.
Renee: Miami Dolphins over Las Vegas Raiders
People with skin in the survivor game watched Monday Night Football with eager eyes. What we saw was at least mildly encouraging. The Dolphins scored every time they crossed midfield, got Tyreek Hill involved when they needed to and kept him out of harm’s way, and showed off an under-the-radar defense. Let’s start there. Miami had a season-high four sacks and didn’t allow a touchdown in Week 10. They rank in the top 10 in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed to opponents, marks that will likely improve now that their D-line is getting healthy.
Offensively, things have gotten a lot better, too. The first couple of games that Tagovailoa was back weren’t perfect, but over the last three games, the Dolphins are averaging about 26 points per game, a full 10 points more than their season average (and ninth in the league over the three-week span).
The Raiders, on the other hand, rank 25th in points scored over the season and 20th over the last three. We don’t know as of this writing which quarterback Las Vegas will start against Miami, Desmond Ridder or Gardner Minshew. But does it really matter? Neither is likely to be very effective against the aforementioned Dolphins’ defense (which is also above average in stopping rushing QBs).
The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff life at home while the Raiders are looking at another lost season, which makes Week 11 perfect for using Miami if you want to save Detroit or have already expended Green Bay.
Week 11 contrarian picks
Adam: Los Angeles Rams over New England Patriots
The Los Angeles Rams are not the same team they have been in recent years, and Monday’s loss to the Miami Dolphins was about as ugly as it’s been in the Sean McVay-Matthew Stafford era. It was bad and a big missed opportunity to keep pace in the NFC West race.
But I like their chances for a bounce-back performance in New England this week.
I know the West Coast to East Coast trip for a 1 p.m. kickoff is tough, and I know the Patriots are playing better in recent weeks and at least have been competitive, but I still really like this matchup for the Rams. For one, New England’s recent success has come against three of the worst teams in the league. I also feel like the Rams have some big matchup advantages that can cause havoc for the Patriots. New England has done an awful job protecting rookie quarterback Drake Maye, and the Rams have some young players on their defensive front who might be able to feast on that. Add in the quarterback advantage with Matthew Stafford, as well as that the Rams should be the more desperate team, and they should be able to rally and get the road win.
I would only recommend going with them if you don’t have teams like Houston (vs. Dallas), Miami (vs. Las Vegas), Green Bay (vs. Chicago) or Detroit (vs. Jacksonville), but if you want to find a team that is probably not going to be a popular pick and has a decent chance to win, the Rams might help you.
Renee: New York Jets over Indianapolis Colts
There is no need to go crazy if you’ve made it this far, but if you have the Jets available and don’t have one of the obvious picks to use, I think we see a bounce-back game from Gang Green in Week 11. They were absolutely embarrassed on both sides of the ball by Arizona in Week 10.
The Jets defense faltered in Glendale, but they’re allowing a league-low 12.3 points per game at home. Despite the aura of awfulness around this team, the Jets are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, and so should be playing with some urgency this week. They are, without a doubt, the more talented team right now; the missing piece seems to be a coherent game plan and motivation to execute on Aaron Rodgers’ part.
The fact that oddsmakers favor the Jets reflects those key points. The Colts are arguably worse off than the Jets despite a better record. They have an unhappy fan base, a starting QB no one believes in (Joe Flacco), and, therefore, a coach who might not have his whole team’s support anymore. The Colts average 1.7 turnovers per game (T-fifth most) and rank dead last in time of possession (25:54, excluding overtime). Their defense is about as average as it gets in the NFL. These are not the characteristics of a winning team.
The Jets are on bye in Week 12, then get Seattle and Miami, so the next time you would conceivably consider them is Week 15 vs. Jacksonville.
(Photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
