In a league where massive change annually has become the norm, the Miami Heat consider their experience and continuity a major asset.
The front office leaders have been in place for decades. Erik Spoelstra is in his 17th season as head coach. Eight players remain on the roster from the 2023 Heat squad that reached the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed. Half of those players were also on the Heat team that reached the 2020 NBA Finals.
With such a solid foundation, this group is supposed to be steady and reliable. They’ve been the exact opposite to start the 2024-25 season.
Through their first 10 games, it’s been almost impossible to predict which Heat team will show up nightly, which has partially fueled their unimpressive 4-6 start. Even Spoelstra, one of the greatest tacticians of his generation, has gone through his own ups and downs over the past few days.
On Sunday, Spoelstra was one of the heroes in a much-needed 95-94 win on the road against Minnesota. With most of the arena expecting Tyler Herro to be the focus of the Heat’s final possession, Spoelstra instead drew up a gorgeous play that freed up second-year forward Nikola Jović for a wide-open layup that resulted in a three-point play and put his team up for good with 7.8 seconds remaining.
THIS MIAMI INBOUNDS PLAY 🔥
Nikola Jović’s go-ahead and-1 WINS IT for the @MiamiHEAT! pic.twitter.com/tM4naVDdK4
— NBA (@NBA) November 11, 2024
Seeing such a great tactician put his team in position to win a few days before made it even more baffling when Spoelstra’s late mistake was the reason his team faltered in a 123-121 overtime loss to Detroit on Tuesday.
After coming out of a timeout with a two-point lead and 1.8 seconds left in overtime, the Heat needed a stop to seal another emotional win on the road. Instead, they somehow surrendered a wide-open dunk to Pistons center Jalen Duren that tied the game. Spoelstra was so furious with his team’s blown defensive coverage that he stormed onto the court and called a timeout.
The only problem was that Miami didn’t have any timeouts left.
This resulted in a technical foul on the Heat, which gave the Pistons two free throws and the ball with just over a second remaining. Out of nowhere, the Heat blew another winnable game in the final seconds.
After the game, an emotional Spoelstra took the blame for the loss and called his mistake a “serious mental error.”
Erik Spoelstra takes the blame for the bad timeout call at the end of tonight’s Heat loss. Says he made a “serious mental error.” https://t.co/W2RHSzxaTc
— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) November 13, 2024
Tuesday’s loss to Detroit was Miami’s fourth in its last five games and the third loss during that stretch by three points or less. While much of the attention will go to Spoelstra’s response to the media after his blunder at the end of the Pistons loss, it was one of his statements following the win over Minnesota on Sunday that captured how he feels about his team’s recent struggles.
“That’s what’s so silly about all of this. It’s so results-based,” Spoelstra said of the praise he might get for his final play call against Minnesota. “If the process is good, you live with the results.”
This is the consistent message Spoelstra has stuck to over the years when he needed to drag his team out of a dark place. It’s not about the result; it’s about the work being done along the way. If the work lines up, the wins will follow.
But here’s one question the Heat and Spoelstra must answer if they continue losing the way they have lately:
What if the process is flawed? What if the path they’re headed down does not lead to the success they’re looking for?
Considering how many times the Spoelstra-Jimmy Butler–Bam Adebayo trio has overcome tremendous odds in the past, it’s hard to blame the Heat for believing, that if everything lines up, they have what it takes to shock the world again.
Still, even with so many familiar faces on the roster, it feels like Miami’s biggest issue is it hasn’t figured out what the core identity of this group is supposed to look like this season. More importantly, how much does it need to evolve from what it’s been in the past?
“You have to earn wins in this league. We’re in a tough stretch right now,” Spoelstra said. “But this is the part you have to love about it. If you can rally around the challenge, rally around each other and rally around doing tough things to earn a win.”
Part of the reason why it feels like an evolution is needed is because the superstars who have carried this team in the past haven’t played up to their superstar standards.
Butler has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, and it’s unclear how long he will be sidelined. This is the same guy who couldn’t agree with the Heat on an extension last summer, partially because he has missed so many games in recent seasons.
But even when Butler was healthy, he scored 20 or more points in only three of his first seven games. Before the injury, his usage was lower than it’s ever been in Miami, and he was more than willing to take a backseat during long stretches of games.
Of course, Butler is known for turning his aggression up once the postseason arrives, but his reluctance to be a dominant offensive figure during the regular season has played a big role in Miami’s inability to avoid the Play-In Tournament the last two seasons.
Even more concerning than Butler’s inconsistency has been Adebayo’s offensive struggles, which have lingered much longer than the team expected.
Through 10 games, Adebayo is averaging just 15.3 points (his lowest since the 2019-20 season) while shooting a frigid 40.7 percent from the field. Adebayo has never finished a season shooting below 51 percent from the field.
The hope coming into the year was that Adebayo’s Olympic experience this summer and the work he put in to expand his shooting range to the 3-point line would make him an even bigger threat to opposing defenses. Instead, he’s shooting 5-of-23 on 3-pointers this season, and he’s been held to 12 points or fewer in six of his first 10 games. They’ll need him to return to his form as a dominant two-way force if this team has any chance of making noise in — or even reaching — the postseason.
Adebayo’s unselfish nature is what makes him such a great leader, and he’ll continue to grow as a scorer once he adds more layers to his repertoire. He also finds other ways to contribute with his passing, offensive rebounding and highlight lob dunks. But he’s got to snap out of his scoring slump before this team will ever be considered a serious threat in the East.
“The basketball is not going to always go in. It is what it is. I’m not going to shy away from that. Shooting slumps happen,” Adebayo said. “But being able to impact the game in different ways … it matters at the end of the day. I’m an all-around player, not just a scorer.”
Then there’s the confusion over what the best lineups look like for this team to get the most out of its current core.
In the last two games, Spoelstra has mixed things up with his starting lineup by moving Kevin Love into the spot that once belonged to Jović. With Butler out, Haywood Highsmith has been the starting small forward. Spoelstra has been non-committal when asked if he’ll continue starting Love and/or Highsmith for the foreseeable future.
It’s not that surprising a change was finally made, regardless of the Butler injury. Miami’s starting five coming into the season (Terry Rozier, Herro, Butler, Jović and Adebayo) has been getting destroyed in their minutes together. According to Cleaning The Glass, that five-man unit is getting outscored by 19.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the court. That’s about as ugly as it gets.
It was only a matter of time before a change was made, but what will it look like once Butler is back? Does it make sense to keep another true big next to Adebayo? Should Highsmith remain with the starters for defensive purposes? Should Jaime Jaquez Jr. get a shot with the starters?
Then there’s the really big question that Heat fans are already starting to ponder:
Would Spoelstra consider moving Rozier to the bench if he keeps struggling as much as he has early in the season? If so, how does that affect everyone else in the starting unit? Will it affect Rozier’s psyche or approach? Spoelstra must consider all the ripple effects before making such a big move. Rozier was a big acquisition for Miami last season, and he’s still due $26.6 million next season.
Still, Spoelstra will probably conclude that splitting up a Herro/Rozier backcourt makes more sense. Defensively, it’s tough to hide both of them when facing elite teams that are capable of hunting mismatches. Not to mention, playing in the starting unit has made it difficult for Rozier to figure out how to pick his spots when he can be aggressive.
Rozier is struggling mightily to figure out how he fits with this group. Through 10 games, he’s shooting 38 percent from the field and 36.5 percent on 3-pointers. A lot of those struggles are based in him being too hesitant to attack when the ball does come his way.
“I didn’t go into the season with a Plan B, C, D. You put together the plan that you think is best for that time,” Spoelstra said of his starting unit. “Then we’ll adjust accordingly.”
Herro’s explosive start to the season has eased some of the tension and provided a reliable source of scoring to a team that currently ranks 18th in offensive efficiency. After going off for 40 points and eight assists in Tuesday’s loss to Detroit, Herro is averaging 24.9 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 47.9 percent on 3s. All four of those numbers would be career highs for him.
Herro’s game has continued to evolve, and he’s playing at an All-Star level recently. It’s an interesting wrinkle to throw into the mix for a team that A) seems to be missing a consistent, reliable No. 1 option and B) was open to moving Herro in deals for bigger stars each of the past two offseasons.
If Herro continues to play this well, does that mean the Heat might view him as an asset they can’t afford to lose? Or would that make him a more attractive trade piece for one of the teams looking to make a big deal down the line?
“The game has slowed down so much for Tyler. He’s understanding how to get the ball (and) when to get the ball. He’s just making plays right now,” Adebayo said. “He’s got something to prove. … He’s having one of those career years.”
Either way, this team needs some form of change. Maybe Butler comes back and his aggression goes up a level as he eyes unrestricted free agency next summer. That would make a major difference. They’ve got to spice some things up and get out of the rut that has them playing at a below-average rate on offense once again.
The path to the next phase isn’t clear just yet, but at some point, Miami might have to admit that finding out what it looks like is better than convincing itself that the current trajectory is worth sticking to.
(Photo of Erik Spoelstra and Tyler Herro: Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
