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College football Week 12 oddly specific predictions: BYU finally falls, Georgia rebounds

14 November 2024Last Update :
College football Week 12 oddly specific predictions: BYU finally falls, Georgia rebounds

Sometimes, you’re the beneficiary of an assist from the refs.

It might have been the correct call, but there was definitely some controversy in the final minutes late Saturday night in the Holy War. I’ll take it. BYU’s come-from-behind win over Utah salvaged the Cougars’ unbeaten record and saved me from my worst week of the season picking games.

Instead, I just matched it. I finished 4-5 on straight-up winners for the second week in a row and am 63-36 for the season. That’s not bad, but I’ve lost five consecutive upset picks. You let me down, Michigan!

We’ll get to my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks, starting with the stat stuffers.

Most passing yards

With three of the top five passing yardage leaders (Miami’s Cam Ward, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart and TCU’s Josh Hoover) idle this week, I’m riding with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier to have a bounce-back performance at Florida.

He’s thrown a combined five interceptions in back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Alabama but faces the 90th-ranked pass defense this week in Gainesville in a game coach Brian Kelly needs. The Tigers are only 4.5-point favorites with Florida freshman QB DJ Lagway still questionable for the game. I’ll take the Tigers to win by two touchdowns and Nussmeier to have a 350-plus-yard performance with three scores.

Most rushing yards

Tulane is No. 25 in this week’s CFP rankings and has a chance to clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game with a win at Navy this week. The Midshipmen rank 80th against the run but have performed better of late.

Tulane sophomore running back Makhi Hughes is a good one. He’s run for 140-plus yards four times this season, and his 1,209 yards on the season rank fourth nationally. He’s also the first freshman or sophomore to top the 1,000-yard mark so far this season. I’ll take Hughes to go for 170-plus rushing yards with two scores and for Tulane to win by six — as a 7-point favorite.

Most receiving yards

San Jose State’s Nick Nash leads all wide receivers in catches (86), receiving yards (1,156) and touchdown receptions (13). This week, he faces a Boise State defense ranked 110th in passing yards allowed and potentially without starting safety Alexander Teubner, the team’s second-leading tackler.

The 13th-ranked Broncos are 14-1 all-time against the Spartans and are favored to win by 13.5 points. I have little doubt Ashton Jeanty will do his thing, but I’m also confident Nash will put up some big numbers (10-plus catches, 180-plus yards, two TDs) in another tight Boise State one-score win.

Five big games

No. 20 Clemson (-10) at Pittsburgh

Dabo Swinney’s team still has a shot to make the College Football Playoff — by winning the ACC title — but needs help to get to Charlotte. Handing Pitt a third loss would be a good start.

Under Pat Narduzzi, Pitt has defeated at least one Top 25 team in eight consecutive seasons. But this won’t be the week that streak continues. Redshirt freshman quarterback Eli Holstein left last week’s loss versus Virginia with a head injury, which means backup Nate Yarnell could be running the show this week. Pitt’s offense was already struggling with Holstein.

Clemson sacks Pitt’s QB four times and Phil Mafah runs for 120 yards and two scores in an 8-point road win.

Utah at No. 17 Colorado (-11.5)

Want to know how bad I am at this? My Big 12 Championship Game pick in the preseason was Utah versus Oklahoma State, two teams that are a combined 1-12 in league play. Utah’s defense, though, is legit. The Utes give up only 17.1 points per game, which is 11th nationally.

The problem is this game is in Boulder, where Colorado’s offense is a little more potent. Utah’s seven-game win streak in the series will come to an end, but only because Shedeur Sanders (250-plus passing yards, two TDs) and Travis Hunter (100-plus receiving yards, one TD) make plays late in a 6-point Buffaloes win.

Virginia at No. 8 Notre Dame (-22.5)

Tony Elliott’s team pulled off an upset last week at Pittsburgh and is 2-3 against Top 25 teams in his tenure in Charlottesville, with both wins coming on the road. The Cavaliers are 3-1 on the road in 2024 and have played ranked teams pretty tough.

But, according to Virginia’s game notes, Notre Dame has never lost to an ACC team at home while ranked in the Top 25, a total of 33 games. The Cavaliers are also 1-31 all-time in road games against top-10 teams. So, I’m going with history. The Irish win their eighth consecutive game, by 11 points, on a pair of second-half Riley Leonard touchdown runs.

No. 1 Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin

Wisconsin is 10-2 at Camp Randall Stadium in prime-time games since 2016 and is hosting the No. 1 team in the country for the fifth time since 1981. The last time No. 1 visited? Wisconsin knocked off Ohio State 31-18 in 2010. Oregon, meanwhile, is attempting to start 11-0 for only the second time in program history.  This all feels like a script for an upset.

But the reality is Wisconsin is 0-3 against ranked opponents this season and doesn’t have enough offense to hang with the Ducks. Dillon Gabriel throws three touchdown passes and Oregon wins by at least three touchdowns for the fifth straight game.

No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia (-10.5)

The Volunteers are one of only three SEC teams with one loss in league play and in a good spot to reach the title game. But Tennessee is facing a huge roadblock. Georgia has won the last seven meetings by an average of 26.4 points per game, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava exited the Vols’ win last week with a concussion.

Tennessee’s defense is elite and will pose a problem for Carson Beck, who has thrown 12 interceptions thus far. Beck was also sacked five times last week. Georgia’s defense, though, will find a way to extend its home win streak to 29 games. The key: Holding Dylan Sampson to a season-low 70 yards.

Upset alert

Kansas at No. 6 BYU (-3)

Of the 19 games involving ranked teams, only four have point spreads in the single digits. So it doesn’t feel like a week where we’ll see many upsets. But I’m obligated to choose one. So I’m going with the game involving a top-10 team that oddsmakers have with the smallest spread.

Yes, Kansas is 3-6, but Lance Leipold’s team is coming off an impressive win over previously ranked Iowa State. The Jayhawks are also scoring a lot of points. Devin Neal, Kansas’ all-time leading rusher, has been tough to handle all season. He runs for 100-plus yards and finds a way to lift Kansas to the upset in Provo.

Week 11 report card

My letters of apology this week have been mailed to Bloomington, Ind.; West Point, N.Y.; and Boulder, Colo.

I knew it was a little bit of a reach picking a 14-point underdog and bad Michigan offense to pull the upset at Indiana. But in the fourth quarter, I could feel Hoosiers fans who read my story last week sweating bullets. Alas, Colston Loveland had only four catches for 37 yards and Michigan didn’t have enough to pull off the upset.

I’m still not sure why I thought North Texas’ high-powered offense would put up huge numbers against a very good Army defense. Chandler Morris threw for only 214 yards and two interceptions in a 14-3 loss. So much for that elite Mean Green offense.

Note to self: It’s time to believe in Colorado as a team and not just its frontline stars. I said Sanders would torch Texas Tech’s secondary but that the Red Raiders would emerge victorious. Sanders threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns and his Buffaloes won 41-27 in Lubbock. Sanders finished 11th in passing yards for the week.

The best thing I did last week was pick SEC games. I went 3-0, including an Ole Miss upset of Georgia at home and Alabama’s double-digit win on the road at LSU. Most impressively, I predicted Jalen Milroe would once again carve up LSU with his feet, rushing for 150-plus yards and two scores. Milroe ran for 185 yards and four scores.

I picked Sampson to lead all FBS rushers last week with 200-plus rushing yards and for Tennessee to beat Mississippi State by three scores. Sampson ran for 149 yards and a touchdown, and the Vols beat the Bulldogs 33-14. Sampson finished ninth in rushing yards for the week.

A big miss for me last week: I thought Xavier Restrepo would have a field day in a 10-point Miami win at Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes lost 28-23 and Restrepo finished with only four catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Everyone knew Miami was due for a letdown. I just didn’t think it would happen against Brent Key’s team yet again.

I said Iowa State would keep its CFP hopes alive by beating Kansas because Jalon Daniels wouldn’t be good enough against the Cyclones defense. Wrong. Daniels threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns in a Jayhawks 45-36 win.

To end on a positive note — in my BYU over Utah selection — I was right about the Cougars holding the Utes to under 300 yards of total offense. So, there’s that.

(Photo of Jake Retzlaff: Rob Gray / Imagn Images)

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