ATP Tour Finals qualification: What Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz need for semifinals

The round-robin stages of the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, Italy are heading into their final matches. After eight matches, all of them straight-sets wins, none of the eight singles players in the tournament have qualified, nor have they been eliminated.

At the start of the tournament, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner was drawn alongside world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev, while Carlos Alcaraz, the world No. 3, was drawn alongside world No. 2 Alexander Zverev.

Taylor Fritz, the U.S. Open finalist who lost to Sinner in New York, was also drawn in the Italian’s group alongside Australian Alex De Minaur, making his ATP Tour Finals debut; Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, who qualified as world No. 9 after Novak Djokovic withdrew, rounded out the second group.

The draw meant that Sinner and Alcaraz would both have to qualify first (or second) in their groups to avoid facing each other in the semifinals. Alcaraz leads their head to head 3-0 in 2024, with each match going to a deciding set, though Sinner triumphed in the final of the Six Kings Slam in Saudi Arabia, which was not an ATP-sanctioned event.

With Sinner’s group concluding today (Thursday November 14) and Alcaraz’s group tomorrow (Friday November 15) it’s still all to play for — even if some of the scenarios would require some seriously outlandish results. There are 10 possible permutations per group as Sinner faces Medvedev and Fritz faces De Minaur, before Alcaraz plays Zverev and Ruud plays Rublev the following day.

Although Medvedev defeated Sinner in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, Sinner has won seven of their last eight meetings, with Medvedev winning the first six. They faced each other in last year’s round-robin stage, with Sinner victorious 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-1. De Minaur has a 5-3 record against Fritz, while Alcaraz and Zverev’s head to head stands at 2-2; Rublev is 5-2 up on Ruud.

There are two singles matches per day, one not before 2:30 p.m. in Turin / 8:30 a.m. ET and the other not before 8:30 p.m. in Turin / 2:30 p.m. ET. Fritz and De Minaur will play first Thursday, with Alcaraz and Zverev in the afternoon session Friday.

Here’s what can happen.

ATP Tour Finals qualification permutations: Ilie Nastase Group

With two wins from two, Sinner is virtually guaranteed to qualify. If Medvedev beats him in two sets and Fritz does the same to De Minaur, then Sinner, Medvedev, and Fritz’s final positions will be determined by their games-won percentage. This is the only scenario in which Sinner could not advance.

For De Minaur to have any chance of qualifying, he needs to beat Fritz in two sets and hope Sinner does the same to Medvedev. In that scenario Sinner would qualify as group winner, with Medvedev, Fritz, and De Minaur’s final positions determined by their games-won percentage.

The main intrigue is between Medvedev and Fritz, with qualification likely to come down to margin of victory or defeat: a two-set win against a three-set win or a two-set defeat against a three-set defeat. Whoever has the better result will qualify along with Sinner.

ATP Tour Finals qualification permutations: John Newcombe Group

The situation is identical in the John Newcombe group. Zverev’s two wins from two mean he is virtually guaranteed to qualify; only if Alcaraz beats him in two sets and Ruud does the same to Rublev is he at risk of elimination.

For Rublev to have any hope he will need to beat Ruud in two sets and hope Zverev does the same to Alcaraz. In that scenario Zverev would qualify as group winner with the other three’s positions determined by their games-won percentage.

The main intrigue is between Alcaraz and Ruud, with qualification likely to come down to margin of victory or defeat: a two-set win against a three-set win or a two-set defeat against a three-set defeat. Whoever has the better result will qualify along with Zverev.

How does the ATP Tour Finals draw work?

The eight players who qualified were split into four pots for the draw. Pot 1 is No. 1 and No. 2, Pot 2 is No. 3 and No. 4, and so on.

These seedings follow the players’ rankings in the ‘ATP Race to Turin,’ the table which only counts ranking points earned in 2024.

Each player then plays three round-robin matches. The top two players from each group contest the semifinals, with the winners meeting in the final.

This year, Andrey Rublev has qualified as the eighth player despite being No. 9 in the race. Novak Djokovic, who finished at No. 6, withdrew from the Tour Finals with an “ongoing injury,” so Rublev took his place as the next-highest ranked player.

Who won last year’s tournament?

Djokovic won the 2023 ATP Tour Finals in Turin, beating Sinner 6-3, 6-3 in the final to avenge a round-robin defeat to the Italian. The victory crowned a superb season for Djokovic, who won three of the four Grand Slams alongside the Tour Finals. This year, he misses the event without an ATP Tour title to his name.

What is the prize money for the ATP Tour Finals?

The total prize money is $15.25million (£11.76m), which is a record for the event. Prize money is allocated per match win, and is structured so that the champion will take home $4.88m (£3.78m) if they go through the event undefeated with five wins (three round-robin wins, a semifinal win, and then victory in the final).

The winner of the final will receive $2.24m (£1.74m) while the winner of each semifinal will receive $1.12m (£870,000); the prize for a round-robin match win is $396,500 (£307,100) and each player receives $331,000 (£256,000) just for appearing at the event, provided they fulfil all of their round-robin matches.

The prize for the winner is larger than any of the four Grand Slams, the largest of which is the U.S. Open at $3.6m (£2.77m). It is also the same size as the pool for the WTA Tour Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but is structured slightly differently: the winner there will take home over $5m (£3.87m).

(Top photo of Jannik Sinner: Tullio Puglia / Getty Images)