If one adage holds true in today’s NFL, it’s that you don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The two-time defending champion is a ridiculous 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) and 11-3 straight up as an underdog in his career, including the postseason.
In their latest run to the Super Bowl last year, Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs were 2.5-point underdogs at the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, 4.5-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 2.5-point underdogs versus the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. The Chiefs won (and obviously covered) all three of those games.
The one loss in Mahomes’ career as an underdog came against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 of the 2022-23 season when the Bills (-2) beat the visiting Chiefs 24-20.
This week, the two teams square off again in Buffalo, and the Bills are currently 2-point favorites versus Mahomes’ Chiefs. Currently, the betting public at DraftKings Sportsbook is siding with Kansas City, though not overwhelmingly (56 percent of bets are on Chiefs to cover), but the majority of money is on the Bills.
In light of Mahomes’ record and Joe Burrow covering again as an underdog of more than three points last week on Thursday Night Football, The Athletic researched the top five current quarterbacks against the spread in a variety of categories: overall, as a favorite and as an underdog. For all of Mahomes’ greatness as an underdog, he is actually barely over .500 in his career ATS (52-48-4, 51.9 percent), which just goes to show there are no such things as “locks” in sports betting … although wagering on Mahomes as an underdog is becoming close to one.
Here are the top five QBs against the spread in those three categories in the regular season (minimum of 17 games started):
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Overall
1. Brock Purdy 20-13-0 (60.6%)
2. Joe Burrow 37-24-1 (60.5%)
3. Jared Goff 73-50-3 (59.1%)
4. Aaron Rodgers 131-99-4 (57%)
5. Josh Allen 55-42-5 (56.4%)
Brock Purdy has been a covering machine in his short time as a starter for the 49ers, although he’s only 4-5 ATS this season. Burrow has been terrific at covering numbers since he’s been in the league, but his biggest issue has been remaining healthy. It may be a surprise to see Jared Goff on this list, but the Detroit Lions are 40-16 ATS in their last 56 games, which will help any QB rise in the rankings.
Rodgers had an incredibly successful career with the Green Bay Packers against the number but is only 3-7 ATS this season with the New York Jets. And Josh Allen barely edged out Tua Tagovailoa for the fifth spot among active QBs.
As a favorite
1. Brock Purdy 20-12-0 (62.5%)
2. Joe Burrow 22-15-1 (59.2%)
3. Jared Goff 45-31-3 (58.9%)
4. Dak Prescott 49-35-2 (58.1%)
5. Aaron Rodgers 103-75-3 (57.7%)
It’s pretty incredible that in the regular season, Purdy has been favored in 32 of his 33 starts (he’s 0-1 ATS in the one game as an underdog). Burrow has been terrific at exceeding expectations as a favorite, and Goff has been on an all-time heater with this Lions team for the last few years — and in most of their games, they’ve been favored.
Dak Prescott is perhaps a surprising member of this list, but he has fallen off a bit this season with a 2-6-1 ATS mark before being lost for the season with a hamstring injury.
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As an underdog
1. Lamar Jackson 12-2-0 (85.7%)
2. Patrick Mahomes 8-1-1 (85%)
3. Russell Wilson 38-19-2 (66.1%)
4. Kyler Murray 30-16-2 (64.6%)
5. C.J. Stroud 7-4-0 (63.6%)
This is perhaps the most interesting category because it helps demonstrate which QBs (and teams) overperform when they aren’t supposed to win the game, according to oddsmakers. Lamar Jackson was eighth on the overall list (48-38 ATS), but he’s a remarkable 12-2 ATS as a ‘dog – and one of his losses was Week 1 this season (+2.5, 27-20 loss to the Chiefs). And Jackson was a potential Isaiah Likely toe away from also covering in that spot.
It’s no surprise to see Mahomes very high on this list, and he’s already added to that mark this season with a 28-18 win in Week 7 over the 49ers as a 2-point ‘dog.
Most of Russell Wilson’s terrific ATS record as an underdog came with the Seattle Seahawks, as he was only 6-6 ATS as an underdog in his two challenging seasons with the Denver Broncos. Kyler Murray is an interesting name on this list – the Arizona Cardinals have been underdogs a lot in his time as a starter – but he has been great in this role, including 5-2 ATS this season. C.J. Stroud is only in his second year, but the betting market didn’t respect the Houston Texans much last season when Stroud went 5-3 ATS as a ‘dog.
Information for this article comes from BetMGM.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Jamie Squire, Jason Mowry, Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
