MADISON, Wis. — There’s no denying Wisconsin’s game against No. 1 Oregon at Camp Randall Stadium represents a big moment for a program struggling to find its way under Luke Fickell. The Badgers haven’t played a top-ranked team in 14 years, and fans still talk about that magical night when Wisconsin took down Ohio State. A similar result Saturday could offer a turning point and serve as the most meaningful win for Fickell at Wisconsin and the first victory against a ranked team of any sort for the Badgers in three years.
It’s just that, if we’re being honest, Wisconsin has been in this position before of late and failed. On multiple occasions. And though it hasn’t come against the No. 1 team in the country, it has come against the No. 3 team last season (Ohio State), the No. 4 team in September (Alabama) and the No. 3 team in October (Penn State). Wisconsin lost to Ohio State 24-10, Alabama 42-10 and Penn State 28-13, all at home.
Throw in the fact that Wisconsin’s most recent performance was an embarrassing 42-10 shellacking at Iowa, and it’s easy to see why enthusiasm outside the program about the Badgers springing an upset is severely lacking.
“We have nothing to lose,” Wisconsin safety Hunter Wohler said this week. “Really no one expects us to win this game or have a chance. So why not just go out there and play? We have no pressure on us. At this point in the season, we have three games left to just go out and do whatever we can to win.”
That’s certainly one way to look at it, and perhaps the best way considering how this season has transpired. Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) is a 14-point underdog against Oregon (10-0, 7-0) in a game that feels every bit like the mismatch it appears to be. The last time Wisconsin played a top-five team — Penn State just three weeks ago — there was optimism based on the Badgers’ three-game winning streak against lesser foes. But on the heels of consecutive losses and with likely the best team Wisconsin has faced on its schedule this season, hope from fans seems to be in short supply.
“You continue to remind them that this is what we signed up for,” Fickell said of his message to the team. “We recognize that this league and college football in general is evolving and changing and growing, and this is what you play for. These are the opportunities that, whether anybody gives you much of a chance, you have every opportunity to go out there and earn the respect that you want.”
Here are three questions Wisconsin can answer Saturday, plus a prediction:
Can Wisconsin establish the run?
Fickell often talks about playing complementary football, and this is where it has to start, for several reasons. Running back Tawee Walker was excellent during Wisconsin’s three-game winning streak against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and running for 418 yards. Over the last two games, losses to Penn State and Iowa, he averaged 2.9 yards per carry and ran for 111 yards. That also falls on the offensive line to move bodies up front.
“Be physical, play fast,” Badgers left guard Joe Brunner said. “Because when you play fast, you’re not questioning anything, you’re not soft. Coach (AJ) Blazek has emphasized that this week. Don’t think about anything, just go out there, have fun, play fast. But definitely dominate the line of scrimmage. That’s what it comes down to, for sure.”
The last thing Wisconsin wants is to put quarterback Braedyn Locke in a spot where he must consistently deliver in third-and-long situations. On plays of third down and 7 to 9 yards this season, he has completed 3 of 18 passes (16.7 percent) for 22 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Five of his eight interceptions have come on third down, including that backbreaking third-and-14 pick six against Penn State that gave the Nittany Lions a third-quarter lead. Locke’s second interception against Iowa was on third down, and the Hawkeyes scored in one play to take a 28-3 lead.
Of course, being able to move the chains and work the clock has another effect: It keeps Oregon’s high-octane offense off the field and could keep Wisconsin’s defense a little fresher. This defense has worn down in the second half of several games this season and hasn’t been helped by an inept offense in crucial moments. Wisconsin has been outscored 98-17 in the second half of its four losses.
How do the Badgers slow Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel is a potential Heisman Trophy finalist who has been every bit as good as Oregon hoped when it plucked the former Oklahoma quarterback from the transfer portal. He has a career-best 74.1 percent completion rate with 2,848 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Gabriel also can hurt opponents with his legs and has six rushing touchdowns.
“He’s going to force us to do things that we maybe not necessarily have done all season,” Wohler said. “But it’s also just playing disciplined. He adds an extra layer with the legs. We’ve seen that all season. When you can run the way he does and throw the ball the way he does, it adds an extra challenge on our defense.”
Oregon’s top running back, Jordan James, and its top receiver, Tez Johnson, have been battling injuries, so their availability and/or effectiveness will be monitored. Johnson sustained a right shoulder injury and did not play last week against Maryland, and James carried just seven times.
Although Wisconsin’s pass defense ranks sixth nationally, that mark comes largely from playing teams with poor passing offenses. Wisconsin struggled against Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, USC quarterback Miller Moss and Penn State’s pair of quarterbacks. How the Badgers stack up against the run is another question after they surrendered 329 yards rushing to Iowa, the most by a Wisconsin team since the 2012 Rose Bowl against Oregon.
“We have the tools,” Badgers inside linebacker Jake Chaney said. “We have the scheme. We have everything. Now we’ve just got to put it together, play loose. Let’s not make them better than they are. They’re really good. But let’s not give them any more credit, and let’s go out there and play our brand of football, and I think we’ll be fine.”
How mentally prepared is Wisconsin?
The Badgers are about to play their third top-five opponent at home this season, which has never happened in program history. That means it’s a chance for a big moment or another big letdown. Belief, despite the lack of results against quality competition, will be key. That could help Wisconsin stay in the game early, which will give the Camp Randall Stadium crowd an opportunity to rally behind its team.
This week, multiple players said that having a bye last weekend was valuable, not simply from a physical perspective but mentally, too. It has been a roller-coaster season with disappointing results.
“I think having this bye week, having a chance to reset, take your girlfriend to Appleberry Farm, do some random stuff, go to the farmer’s market on Saturday was good,” Chaney said. “The physical part of the game is one thing. That doesn’t go as quick as the mental. I think (Tuesday) was a great day at practice. It was a lot of smiling faces, a lot of free hearts, flying around, playing the game. We need to stay with that.
“Iowa was two weeks ago. I’m not happy about it. I don’t think anybody is sitting here saying we’re OK with it. But we’ve got a great opportunity ahead of us. We don’t have much to lose. Being able to go out there and play free, there’s a beauty in that.”
Prediction
How can anyone have confidence that Wisconsin is going to pull this off based on what we’ve seen in every meaningful game this season? Fickell is 0-5 against ranked teams at Wisconsin, and one would think that breakthrough moment has to happen sometime. But as I’ve said from the start of the season, the Badgers don’t get the benefit of the doubt. They have to prove they can rise to the occasion and win something of consequence before I’m willing to go out on a limb and pick them.
Maybe Oregon is due for a letdown. The Ducks will be playing on their eighth consecutive weekend before taking their second bye week leading into a regular-season finale against Washington. They’re likely set as a College Football Playoff team regardless of Saturday’s result. But Oregon is simply better than Wisconsin. And better teams have beaten the Badgers for far too long.
Oregon 34, Wisconsin 14
(Photo of Braedyn Locke: Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)
