As it stands, the road to Charlotte to play in the ACC Championship Game runs through Dallas and Miami.
An upset or two over the final three weeks of the regular season could make things a lot more interesting, but it’s pretty simple for SMU and Miami: win and you’re in.
We’ll dive into a few of the possibilities below, but first, let’s start with the bigger picture.
The Playoff race
First, it’s probably time to come to terms that the ACC isn’t likely to send two teams to the College Football Playoff — barring some major upsets.
The selection committee made itself pretty clear this week: Winning the league title is the only guarantee any ACC team has of getting into the field.
SMU’s 8-1 record is nice, but the Mustangs’ loss to Big 12 leader BYU is keeping them on the outside looking in at No. 14. Miami took a tumble in the rankings, from No. 4 to No. 9, after losing at Georgia Tech, but the Canes are still in solid position to reach the 12-team field.
𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝟮𝟱: 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟮 pic.twitter.com/gP40mJDrMK
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) November 13, 2024
Yes, the SEC still has to sort itself out. But it’s clear if Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia close out the season with 10 wins (and don’t win the league title game), each one will finish ahead of any ACC team that is not an automatic qualifier.
Seventh-ranked Tennessee could also fall into the same boat, too, if it loses at Georgia this week. And that’s not even counting No. 3 Texas (8-1) or No. 15 Texas A&M (7-2), which are still very much alive to reach the league title game. That’s six strong candidates out of the SEC.
The Big Ten has four of the top five teams in the most recent rankings: No. 1 Oregon (10-0), No. 2 Ohio State (8-1), No. 4 Penn State (8-1) and No. 5 Indiana (10-0).
The Hoosiers play at the Buckeyes on Nov. 23 and close the season at home against a bad Purdue (1-8) team. Ohio State will be favored to beat Northwestern (4-5) and Michigan (5-5) before a trip to the Big Ten title game where Oregon likely awaits. The Ducks close the season with Wisconsin (5-4), Maryland (4-5) and Washington (5-5). Penn State (8-1) closes its season with Purdue, Minnesota (6-4) and Maryland.
And then there’s CFP sweetheart Notre Dame, which has a loss to Northern Illinois (6-4) that gets swept under the rug because of the Irish’s wins over ranked Texas A&M and Louisville. Notre Dame closes the season against Virginia (5-4), No. 24 Army (9-0) and USC (4-5).
Do the math. There are a potential 10 to 11 teams from just two leagues (and one independent) that could finish ahead of the ACC runner-up. That’s not even counting the automatic bids that will go to the winner of the Big 12 and the highest-ranking Group of 5 champion. Bottom line: Root for chaos over the next month if you want a second ACC team to have a shot at one of the at-large spots.
The ACC race
Now, let’s turn our attention to the league race. There is still a mathematical possibility for a three-loss team to earn a trip to Charlotte. But for today, let’s keep things (relatively) simple. And because the top two teams reach the title game, we are concerned only about three-team tiebreakers for the top spot or tiebreakers for second place. A tiebreaker between teams tied for first only determines which team wears the home uniforms.
|
TEAM
|
ACC RECORD
|
REMAINING ACC SCHEDULE
|
|---|---|---|
 SMU |
5-0
|
vs. Boston College, at Virginia, vs. Cal
|
 Clemson |
6-1
|
at Pittsburgh
|
 Miami |
5-1
|
vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse
|
 Louisville |
4-2
|
at Stanford, vs. Pitt
|
 Pittsburgh |
3-2
|
vs. Clemson, at Louisville, at Boston College
|
1. SMU gets into the ACC title game by winning at least two of its last three games. Should the Mustangs lose one of the last three, and Miami and Clemson win out to invoke a three-team tiebreaker, the Mustangs and Hurricanes would meet in Charlotte based on winning percentage versus all common opponents. Miami and SMU beat Florida State and Louisville. Clemson beat the Seminoles but lost to the Cardinals.
2. The Hurricanes go to Charlotte if they win their final two games even if Clemson beats Pittsburgh on Saturday. Miami would finish 7-1 in league play and advance ahead of a 7-1 Tigers team because of its better record against common opponents (Miami’s win over Louisville).
3. Clemson goes to Charlotte if it beats Pittsburgh and Miami loses one of its last two games.
Where things get nutty is if two or more teams finish 6-2 in league play and tie for second place — or if SMU somehow loses two of its last three and creates an even bigger logjam of two-loss teams.
We’ll come back Sunday with another update once we have more results.
ACC Power rankings
1. Miami (previous ranking: 1): The Hurricanes probably don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt, but the CFP selection committee is giving it to them.
2. SMU (2): The Mustangs are in the top 15 of the AP poll for the first time since 1985. Rhett Lashlee’s agent must be busy fielding calls.
3. Louisville (3): Jeff Brohm’s team still has an outside shot at reaching the ACC title game. For now, the three-loss Cardinals are propping up Notre Dame, Miami and SMU in the CFP rankings.
4. Clemson (5): With a win at Pitt, Dabo Swinney will finish with at least seven ACC wins for the 10th time in the last 13 seasons.
5. Georgia Tech (9): The Yellow Jackets are now 15-14 all-time against Miami and have a shot at finishing unbeaten at home for the first time since 1999.
6. Pittsburgh (4): A crushing home loss to Virginia didn’t eliminate the Panthers from contention for a trip to Charlotte, but they have to beat Clemson this week to have any hope.
7. Duke (7): The Blue Devils are headed to a bowl game for the ninth time since 2012.
8. Virginia (12): The Cavaliers are one win from becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021 after their second Top 25 upset under Tony Elliott in three years.
9. Syracuse (6): The Orange are giving up 10 fewer points per game at home (24.2) than on the road (34.0). That helps explain why Cal is a nine-point favorite in Berkeley this week.
10. Virginia Tech (8): There are several reasons Brent Pry’s team is 5-5. Kyron Drones being next-to-last among ACC starting quarterbacks in passing efficiency is one of them.
11. North Carolina (10): The Tar Heels have 17 sacks over their last two games. Who said they don’t play defense in Chapel Hill?
12. Boston College (15): Benching Thomas Castellanos — second in the league in passing efficiency — seems like a good reason to question Bill O’Brien’s decision-making. But Grayson James did come off the bench to lead the Eagles to a win over Syracuse.
13. Cal (14): The Bears’ five wins this season have come by an average of 18.6 points. The four losses have been by an average of 2.3 points.
14. NC State (11): Dave Doeren’s team needs to beat Georgia Tech or North Carolina to avoid a losing regular season for the first time since 2019.
15. Wake Forest (13): Did you know the Demon Deacons are 3-0 on the road this season? I’m sure the next two opponents — North Carolina and Miami — are aware.
16. Stanford (16): The Cardinal have gone for it on fourth down 26 times, tied for fifth-most in the FBS, and have converted 14 times (tied for 12th most).
17. Florida State (17): The Seminoles are not going to lose this weekend. Book it!
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
