As Connor McDavid passes 1,000-point milestone, how high can he climb?

15 November 2024Last Update :
As Connor McDavid passes 1,000-point milestone, how high can he climb?

EDMONTON — The play couldn’t have been scripted any better for Connor McDavid.

There he was on a two-on-one with longtime running mate Leon Draisaitl, who had the puck courtesy of a pass from Darnell Nurse. Draisaitl was looking to feed McDavid the whole time and did just that.

McDavid beat Nashville Predators goaltender Scott Wedgewood with ease at 2:44 of the second period and his teammates leapt off the bench to congratulate him on his 1,000th NHL point. Draisaitl and Nurse, the two players who assisted on the goal and who were two of his groomsmen in his summertime wedding, stayed for an extended hug.

“These moments are a great time to look back and appreciate the things and the people that mean a lot to you — and those two certainly are both,” McDavid said.

That signature moment was just the latest example of him joining hockey’s inner circle.

McDavid became both the fourth fastest and fourth youngest player to reach the 1,000-point mark Thursday. He also set up Nurse’s overtime winner in the 3-2 victory over Nashville for point No. 1,001.

McDavid was bested only by Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux en route to 1,000, plus Mike Bossy in the former category and Steve Yzerman in the latter.

“I never saw Gretzky play or Mario, but he’s got to be a top-three or top-four guy in the league to ever play,” Oilers defenseman Mattias Ekholm said. “It’s how dominant he can be. If you can reach 1,000 points that fast, it’s pretty incredible.”

That’s just it. To record that many points in 659 games and at 27 years and 306 days old is special.

“We’re not talking greatness,” Draisaitl said earlier in the week. “We’re talking legendary-type stuff.”

Nail meet hammer.

Considering he’s regarded as one of the greatest skaters in hockey history — if not the best — there are no signs of McDavid slowing down.

Unless Sidney Crosby finds another gear in the twilight stages of his storied career, McDavid could become the NHL’s second 2,000-point player. (Crosby’s at 1,613 points early in his age-37 campaign.)

McDavid’s already (more than) halfway there before turning 28. He’s notched 1.52 points per game. Even if he immediately reverted to the 1.15 points Crosby has averaged since he turned 30, McDavid would need 870 games or just over 10 1/2 healthy campaigns to notch another 1,000, er, 999 points.

“If not him, then who else? That’s the only question,” Draisaitl said. “I never bet against Connor McDavid. I’ve learned that over the last 10 years. It wouldn’t surprise me.”

“Anything’s possible for him,” Nurse said.

McDavid has already won the Art Ross Trophy five times in nine seasons and finished second twice. He’s recorded at least 100 points seven times, plus 97 with 11 games left in the 2019-20 schedule before the COVID-19 pandemic canceled the rest of the regular season.

And then there’s how McDavid creates all that offense.

“There’s guys that can get to 1,000 points just by being solid or they’re really good shooters or they’re really good net-front (players). That happens,” Ekholm said. “But (he’s) a guy getting 1,000 points being that dynamic. I don’t feel like during my time here that he’s gotten a lot of tap-ins or free cookies. It’s usually him making an unbelievable play to somebody that gets a free goal. That impresses me the most.

“He’s so impactful on the team. He’s not somebody that stands on the side and looks to maybe find something backdoor. Most of the goals, he’s the one creating it; he’s the one executing it.”

Added Draisaitl: “I don’t think there’s been a player like him before. I don’t think there’s a player that can create out of nothing like him ever in hockey.”

Count Patrick Roy among those impressed.

Now coach of the Islanders, Roy spent almost two decades in net facing shots from Gretzky, Lemieux and Yzerman. Many of those seasons occurred in those players’ prime years and in hockey’s highest-scoring era. Roy’s 1985-86 rookie season was also the last of Bossy’s five 60-goal campaigns.

That McDavid is even in the ballpark of Gretzky and Lemieux and right there with Bossy and Yzerman when offense is harder to come by speaks to his unbelievable skill, Roy said.

“When you let him pick up speed, he’s differently a very dangerous player,” Roy said. “I hate to go back in time because the guys who were playing at that time, that’s what they had. … But he deserves a lot of credit for what he’s doing.”

Gretzky decisively leads the NHL in all-time scoring with 2,857 points, 936 ahead of second-place Jaromir Jagr. However, because most of Gretzky’s career came in the 1980s and early 1990s, he has 2,475 points when adjusting for era, per Hockey Reference.

Lemieux, whose career was plagued by injury and illness, had 1,723 points in his career and 1,540 when adjusted. Bossy retired prematurely with back issues with 1,126 points, which drops to 906 when adjusted. Yzerman’s 1,755 points go down to 1,650.

McDavid, by comparison, has played in a more neutral scoring era. The beginning of his career occurred in slightly unfavorable conditions — fewer than six goals scored per NHL game — and the more recent seasons in marginally more advantageous circumstances. His actual point total is still lower than the era-adjusted amount. Per Hockey Reference, McDavid’s 1,074 adjusted points compared to the 1,001 on his resume.

So, McDavid is even better than the numbers suggest. And that’s something.

How high McDavid climbs on the all-time list depends on a few factors, chief among them health. Paul Pidutti — Adjusted Hockey on X — gave McDavid 50/50 odds of reaching 1,921 points, which would tie him with Jaromir Jagr for second all-time.

The smart money is on McDavid battling to track down Jagr, while also competing with Gordie Howe and Jagr for second and third place in adjusted points. Howe, who has 1,850 career points, has 2,190 adjusted points; Jagr has 2,080.

Catching Gretzky’s adjusted points recorded is probably a long shot.

The way Pidutti sees it, McDavid has been docked 73 points because of two COVID-shortened seasons, so he really must get to 2,402 points to match Gretzky. Assuming a neutral leaguewide scoring rate to close out his career, Pidutti told The Athletic that McDavid needs 1,401 points to tie The Great One.

That’s a lot.

But you can bet on McDavid giving it a run — provided he stays healthy.

He’s already shown time and time again that he’s in the same conversation as Gretzky, Lemieux, Bossy and Yzerman. Thursday was just another example of that.

“This kind of stuff has really rarely been done,” said Oilers winger Connor Brown, also McDavid’s junior teammate. “It really makes you appreciate how spectacular he is.

“The way he plays and the level of speed and pace he plays at is really revolutionary. When you see those guys on that list, they did it a different way. You see the pace of the game now, and for him to be well beyond that pace, it’s pretty incredible.”

McDavid was incredible Thursday. The way he finished off Draisaitl’s pass was magnificent. The behind-the-back feed to Nurse to the OT winner was sublime.

Draisaitl had the first assist on Nurse’s goal, too, marking the 446th time he’s been in on one of McDavid’s 1,001 points.

“It’s certainly fitting,” Draisaitl said. “All three of us came in at the same time. We’ve known each other for a long time and become lifelong friends off the ice. It’s a good story.”

McDavid was about as jovial as he’s ever been after a game. His teammates wore T-shirts plastered with a goofy photo of him that Draisaitl snapped a couple of years ago.

It was a picture-perfect night for McDavid. The Oilers won. His father, Brian, flew in from Toronto to witness him make history on a pivotal goal.

“It was only a matter of time,” McDavid said. “My dad made the trip today, so it was never not going to be tonight. I had to make it happen and make his trip worthwhile. Otherwise, it would have been a long flight home for him tomorrow.”

Masterfully scripted.

(Photo: Codie McLachlan / Getty Images)