We’ve hit the point of the season where every game matters for playoff-hopeful college football teams. And Week 12 has some big games — and with them comes some value on the betting side. My model likes the over on Georgia-Tennessee by about a half point and Georgia to cover, too.
As for the games with the biggest favorites from the top 25, my model is even more bullish than the books on Ohio State, Penn State and Texas and sees Oregon–Wisconsin going over.
For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 12 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my best bets for the week.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 12 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wyoming |
|
|
48.5
|
46.5
|
 Colorado St. |
-10.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 North Texas |
|
|
69.5
|
72.5
|
 UTSA |
-1
|
1.5
|
|
|
 UCLA |
|
|
49
|
46.5
|
 Washington |
-3.5
|
-4
|
|
|
 Houston |
|
|
48
|
46.5
|
 Arizona |
-4.5
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 Ohio State |
|
|
50
|
44.5
|
 Northwestern |
30.5
|
28.5
|
|
|
 Texas |
|
|
55
|
57.5
|
 Arkansas |
13
|
12.5
|
|
|
 Utah |
|
|
42
|
45.5
|
 Colorado |
-10
|
-11
|
|
|
 Clemson |
|
|
54
|
52.5
|
 Pitt |
10
|
11.5
|
|
|
 Tulane |
|
|
54
|
51.5
|
 Navy |
3
|
7
|
|
|
 Liberty |
|
|
53.5
|
51.5
|
 UMass |
17
|
14
|
|
|
 La. Tech |
|
|
49.5
|
52.5
|
 W. Kentucky |
-12
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 La. Monroe |
|
|
44
|
46.5
|
 Auburn |
-25
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Coastal Car. |
|
|
54.5
|
56.5
|
 Marshall |
-8.5
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 FIU |
|
|
55.5
|
58.5
|
 J’ville State |
-15
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 FAU |
|
|
52
|
51.5
|
 Temple |
2
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Michigan St. |
|
|
51.5
|
47.5
|
 Illinois |
-1
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Syracuse |
|
|
56.5
|
57.5
|
 California |
-10
|
-10
|
|
|
 Sam Houston |
|
|
44
|
42.5
|
 Kennesaw St. |
16.5
|
17
|
|
|
 Hawai’i |
|
|
60
|
60.5
|
 Utah State |
0.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Penn State |
|
|
46.5
|
50.5
|
 Purdue |
29.5
|
28.5
|
|
|
 Virginia |
|
|
51.5
|
50.5
|
 Notre Dame |
-22
|
-22.5
|
|
|
 Boston Coll. |
|
|
55.5
|
54.5
|
 SMU |
-16.5
|
-19.5
|
|
|
 Louisville |
|
|
61
|
57.5
|
 Stanford |
17
|
20.5
|
|
|
 LSU |
|
|
59
|
55.5
|
 Florida |
6
|
4
|
|
|
 Oregon State |
|
|
44
|
45.5
|
 Air Force |
5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 South Florida |
|
|
49
|
54.5
|
 Charlotte |
4
|
3
|
|
|
 Nebraska |
|
|
47
|
50.5
|
 USC |
-10
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Baylor |
|
|
61.5
|
59.5
|
 West Virginia |
-1
|
1.5
|
|
|
 Troy |
|
|
56
|
54.5
|
 Georgia So. |
-7.5
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 James Madison |
|
|
48
|
51.5
|
 Old Dominion |
4.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Missouri |
|
|
41
|
41.5
|
 So. Carolina |
-14
|
-14
|
|
|
 Arkansas St. |
|
|
57
|
59.5
|
 Georgia St. |
-0.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 Rutgers |
|
|
49.5
|
52.5
|
 Maryland |
-6
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 Boise State |
|
|
59.5
|
61.5
|
 San José St. |
11.5
|
14
|
|
|
 Arizona St. |
|
|
51
|
51.5
|
 Kansas State |
-8.5
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 South Alabama |
|
|
59
|
59.5
|
 Louisiana |
-6.5
|
-7
|
|
|
 Southern Miss. |
|
|
56.5
|
56.5
|
 Texas State |
-24
|
-27.5
|
|
|
 Oregon |
|
|
53.5
|
51.5
|
 Wisconsin |
13.5
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Tennessee |
|
|
48
|
47.5
|
 Georgia |
-10
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 New Mexico St. |
|
|
53
|
54.5
|
 Texas A&M |
-40.5
|
-39.5
|
|
|
 Cincinnati |
|
|
56
|
53.5
|
 Iowa State |
-9.5
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Wake Forest |
|
|
64.5
|
63.5
|
 North Carolina |
-13.5
|
-11
|
|
|
 UAB |
|
|
63
|
62.5
|
 Memphis |
-19.5
|
-15.5
|
|
|
 Washington St. |
|
|
73
|
71.5
|
 New Mexico |
11
|
10.5
|
|
|
 Kansas |
|
|
59.5
|
56.5
|
 BYU |
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 San Diego St. |
|
|
56.5
|
54.5
|
 UNLV |
-20.5
|
-20.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Carson Beck and Trevor Etienne: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
