Week 11 Sunday brought a few blowouts and some key missed kicks, but it was highlighted by a couple of classic rivalry games: the Packers surviving in Chicago and the Steelers outlasting the Ravens.
STEELERS DENY THE GAME-TYING 2-PT CONVERSION.
đź“ş: #BALvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Vzrz2wUyIu— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
The AFC North is wide-open, the Packers might be readying for another late-season run, and the race for the AFC’s final playoff spot is wide-open. The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
Does Sunday’s wild Steelers win in Pittsburgh tell us more about Pittsburgh or Ravens when it comes to AFC contenders?
Jones: I think it tells a lot about both of these teams. Let’s start with Pittsburgh. As impressive as their start to 2024 was, I tried to reserve judgment until they played a top-level team. Outside of Atlanta, the Chargers and Washington, the Steelers hadn’t played any other teams with winning records; none of their first nine opponents were considered elite. Baltimore certainly fit the “elite” billing, as they boasted the league’s most prolific offense, led by two MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. But the Steelers defense on Sunday largely held Baltimore in check — that juggernaut Ravens offense had nearly 120 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns than their season average. Henry entered Sunday averaging 112 yards per game and managed only 65 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. The Steelers also forced Baltimore into three turnovers. They did receive a gift in the form of two missed Justin Tucker field goals, but Pittsburgh made plays on both sides of the ball, displayed grit as all great teams do, and proved that they are indeed one of the best teams in the AFC. As far as Baltimore goes: This game featured all kinds of elements that should spark concern within the organization. Tucker’s misses stand out, but they certainly weren’t the only reason the Ravens lost. Three turnovers and 12 penalties also factored heavily. Baltimore has a talented team, but they can’t expect to win games against elite opponents if they repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot. This loss will come back to haunt Baltimore when it’s time for playoff seeding.
Nguyen: This game told me a lot about the Steelers and just another ode to the culture that Mike Tomlin has built in Pittsburgh. This was an ugly, hard-hitting game with intensity. The game was won on plays that were finished with a little more effort, like Nate Herbig’s strip of Derrick Henry or rookie Payton Wilson’s ripping an interception away from Justice Hill on a downfield route. The Ravens drove the ball into Pittsburgh territory several times but the Steelers dug their heels in and kept the Ravens out of the end zone all but once. They got some help with two Tucker misses, but I was impressed with the Steelers’ resolve. I think the Ravens are the better team, but that goes out of the window when these rivals play each other.
Pompei: I’m not sure we learned much more about either team in what was a typical AFC North November slugfest. Both are quality teams, though they didn’t always look like it on Sunday. If the Steelers and Ravens played next week, the Ravens might win 18-16. And then if they played again the week after, the Steelers might win 18-16. It’s that kind of rivalry. We will learn a lot more Dec. 21 when these teams meet in Baltimore in a game that could decide the AFC North. Then again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them paired in the playoffs. If that scenario plays out, we will be in for a treat.
Last year, the Packers came on late in the year and ended up winning a playoff game — and almost knocking off the 49ers in the divisional round. Does this year’s team profile similarly?
Nguyen: This Packers team is better than last year’s edition. The defense isn’t elite but they’re an improved unit under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Last season, the offense exploded down the stretch. The offense hasn’t looked as explosive as they were last season but they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries, including Jordan Love missing multiple games. If the Packers’ passing game improves, they have the defense to make them a legitimate contender in the NFC. To be able to still win seven games with the injuries and offensive inconsistencies shows that this team has many avenues to winning games. The inconsistencies of Love and his promising group of young pass catchers is maddening but they feel close to a breakout.
Jones: I think a lot of it depends on Love. He was fantastic down the stretch last season. This year, however, he’s struggling with ball security, having thrown at least one interception in every game he’s played in this season. This is right about the time he heated up last season, throwing 18 touchdown passes and one interception over the last eight regular-season games (Green Bay won six of those games). I think this team has the ability to contend in the playoffs. Their offense is more well-rounded, and their defense is better. But Love is the key to their success and how far they can go.
Pompei: These Packers could be better than those Packers, but only if Love can start playing more like he did a year ago. And there is reason to believe he can improve now that he’s healthy. He threw his 11th interception of the season Sunday, which tied his total for all of last season. This one came in the end zone and could have cost the Packers the game. Their defense has been better (though it wasn’t very good against the Bears Sunday). The key as the weather turns could be their running game, which should be improved with Josh Jacobs.
A month from now, are we going to be talking about the Dolphins, Colts, both or neither as competing for the seventh seed in the AFC?
Pompei: The competition for the last wild-card spot in the AFC could come down to the Dolphins, Colts, Bengals and Broncos. The Dolphins might have more potential than the Colts because they could be buoyed by Tua Tagovailoa’s return. They have a manageable schedule down the stretch, with three games that look really challenging – at Green Bay and Houston, and home against the 49ers. The Colts have an easier road, as they should have a decent chance of winning every remaining game with the exception of next week against the Lions. The wild-card for them is reliant on the play and development of Anthony Richardson. If he plays like he did Sunday, the Colts very well could be in the playoffs.
Jones: I think it’s possible that both will be in the running. There’s very little margin for error, but both teams seem to be figuring things out and playing better than they did early in the season. The Colts defense has improved, and on Sunday Richardson executed better than prior to his benching. And the Dolphins offense is far more effective now that Tua Tagovailoa is back; he gives them hope. Looking at the schedules the rest of the way, the Colts (5-6) have winnable games in four of their next six contests (they play the Lions, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars). They’re likely not beating the Lions, and the Broncos are iffy. But the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars are all very winnable. That means, they’re looking at 9-8? Maaaaybe 10-7? Meanwhile, the Dolphins (4-6) have a little bit of a tougher road. They have realistic shots at beating the Patriots, Jets, Browns and Jets again, but the Packers, Texans and 49ers will be tough matchups. While they might be in the mix late, 8-9 isn’t likely going to get the job done. And of course, this is all hinging on the Broncos, currently the seventh seed, faltering. They have the Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs remaining.
Nguyen: The Colts defense has been improved after an abysmal start to the season, but I still don’t trust them. Richardson played one of the best games he’s played in the pros but I still want to see more consistency from him, though it is certainly exciting to see how much he’s improved with his footwork and accuracy since his time on the bench. The Dolphins look to have the best chance to get back into playoff contention. Tagovailoa is back and, although he hasn’t been as productive as he’s been when the Dolphins offense is at its peak, he’s playing at a very high level. Tyreek Hill isn’t 100 percent and defenses have taken away the middle of the field, but in the last two games Tagovailoa has made several game-changing plays outside of structure. The Dolphins defense seems to have found its stride. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is from the Mike Macdonald tree and that system takes a little time to learn because players have to learn everyone else’s job — but once they do, they can mix and match personnel and assignments and really confuse offenses. This Dolphins defense looks like they are getting to that point. This is a dangerous Miami team.
(Top photo: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
