Three weeks into this MLB offseason, two questions dominate the discussion across the sport:
Which team will sign Juan Soto? And for how much?
The Soto sweepstakes are heating up. Five teams — the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays — have met with Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, to make their initial pitches. A sixth team, the Phillies, is expected to sit down with Soto soon, and more could follow.
The teams know they have a chance to sign a generational player who is just entering his prime. They also know it’ll cost them.
Soto’s contract is expected to break records in terms of both average annual value and present-day value (as calculated for luxury tax purposes), but not surpass the total amount of Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers from last offseason.
Sources with the involved teams believe the Soto contract will end up being $550 million to $650 million, depending on the structure of the deal, and 10 to 15 years, depending on luxury tax impact and other factors that could benefit the team in terms of length.
(For comparison’s sake, keep in mind Ohtani’s $700 million deal had a net present value of $460 million for luxury tax purposes because of all the deferrals. The next largest contracts in MLB history were Mike Trout at $426 million, Mookie Betts at $365 million and Aaron Judge at $360 million.)
I predicted a 15-year, $622 million contract when I finalized my top free agent ranking in late October. I believed Soto would get $622 million because he is only 26, has one of the best hit tools the game has ever seen, and should age well. Fifteen years makes sense when you consider many superstar players have signed deals that run until they’re at least 40, even though the backends of those contracts rarely work out well for the teams.
Those are eye-popping numbers, but they’re really not surprising given the player.
A player who will be entering his age-26 season. A player who has already been to two World Series. A player who is comparable to Ted Williams with 40-home run power.
Sure, Soto is only adequate defensively in the outfield — though he was a Gold Glove Award finalist this year — but he has a strong and accurate arm. Sure, he doesn’t possess blazing speed or get good leads, but he is a smart, instinctive base runner.
He’ll go down in history as one of the best on-base percentage players of all time. His bat plays at the highest level against the best pitching. His penchant for the dramatic is well-documented. All the cliches apply: He wants to be at the plate in the biggest moments, on the biggest stages — and he’s proven he’ll perform, as he demonstrated with a sensational walk-year season in New York that included a three-run homer that propelled the Yankees to their first World Series in 15 years.
May we once again re-introduce, The Generational, Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/6R5fWpEg6I
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 20, 2024
After the World Series, Soto followed the Boras script to a T when he spoke to the media.
“I don’t know what teams want to come after me, but definitely, I’ll be open to this and every single team,” Soto said. “I don’t have any doors closed or anything like that. I’m going to be available for all 30 teams.”
Soto said he was open to any team, even if that might not be the case, because that’s the best way to get the best offer, and it’s surely what his agency advised. If a player wants a particular destination, Boras and his lieutenants don’t want anyone to know until the end of the process, so they can maximize the offer, let all the teams that are in the bidding think they have a chance — and then when they get the best offer — go back to the team the player prefers and ask for its best and final offer.
Boras has always counseled his star clients to wait until free agency to sign to maximize their value, and that strategy is poised to pay off handsomely for Soto, who turned down $440 million from the Nationals in 2022 before he was eventually traded to San Diego.
His agency has almost always recommended players take the most money and years — for themselves and their families but also to grow the market for future free agents. While some have suggested Soto prefers to play on the East Coast, during free agency he’s indicated he’s open to the West Coast. Several in the industry familiar with Soto and his camp believe he will take the biggest offer, with the most money and years trumping geography. The best opportunity to win championships could be a deciding factor among those he’ll consider. With the belief that the top teams will be willing to commit the dollars it takes to land him, in the end Soto will choose exactly where he wants to play.
At the start of this offseason, I thought about one-third of the teams in the league would make a serious bid for Soto. Things can change in the coming weeks, but at this point, I believe there are only six or seven legitimate landing spots for the four-time All-Star: the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox — who I view as the most likely destinations — followed by the Blue Jays and maybe a team that’s yet to emerge. All of those named teams should have the resources to make a deal, and all but the Blue Jays should be contending or within striking distance of perennial contenders over the next several years.
Boras has a long history of surprising the baseball world with free agent landing spots, like when Max Scherzer signed with Washington, Iván Rodriguez signed with Detroit and Alex Rodriguez broke the bank with the Rangers. If an unexpected team emerges and decides to outbid the field, there’s a chance Soto will accept the offer. It’s just tough to see that scenario unfolding, especially because that team would need to beat out so many big-market behemoths.
But in my four decades working in MLB front offices, I learned it only takes one wild-card owner to change the free-agent landscape, one owner who’s willing to shatter records to land a franchise player for their club.
Another variable to consider in all of this: The Boras Corporation represents many of the top free agents — and they are intermingled and can affect each other. For example, Boras also reps first baseman Pete Alonso. Let’s say, for illustrative purposes, Soto has six teams in contention and all are willing to bid in the $600 million range, but Alonso has only two teams that will bid in the $150 million to $200 million range and only one of those teams is also in on Soto. Then it might be best for the Boras Corporation and both of its clients if Alonso signs the best offer he can get but it also pushes Soto to one of his other five teams if the money he’s being offered is the same. Ultimately, the player makes the decision that’s best for him, but free agents’ markets can be connected and affect who signs who.
MLB’s Winter Meetings will be held next month at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas, the same hotel where Boras negotiated A-Rod’s record-breaking deal with the Rangers in 2000 and where Albert Pujols shocked the sport by signing with the Angels in 2011.
It’s easy to imagine Soto with Boras at the podium in Dallas a few weeks from now, announcing his next team and another ground-breaking deal. But which team’s cap will be on his head? Which fan base will be ecstatic?
When the dust settles weeks or even months from now in the race for the offseason’s most-prized free agent, who will win the Soto sweepstakes?
Soto said he was open to joining all 30 teams. Below, I’ve ranked the field of plausible contenders — including teams actively pursuing him, others monitoring his market, and still others that make sense as destinations and possibly could emerge — based on who is most likely to land him. (I left out roughly two-thirds of the league because those teams either aren’t engaged in Soto’s market or have no realistic chance of signing him.)
Here’s how I see the state of the Soto sweepstakes as of today.
The Big Five — teams with a legitimate chance to sign Soto
1. New York Mets
The Mets are my favorites to sign Soto because I believe if their owner, Steve Cohen, wants him, he will make the highest bid — offering the most dollars and years — and if he does that and no other team matches it, I think he’s getting his man. Cohen was the highest bidder last offseason for Yoshinobu Yamamoto before the Dodgers matched the Mets’ bid, and his offer two years ago to Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162 million) far exceeded any other the outfielder had received.
2. New York Yankees
The tandem of Judge and Soto brought back memories of Ruth and Gehrig and Mantle and Maris — and rightfully so. Soto seemed at home in the Bronx. He loved the fans and the fans loved him. I think if the Yankees have the best offer on the table, or match it, there is a strong chance he returns. If they don’t sign Soto, expect them to immediately pivot to some combination of Anthony Santander, Christian Walker, Willy Adames and Tanner Scott.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
If I’m Soto, I’d sign with the Dodgers because they are positioned to build a dynasty. Can you imagine a lineup of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Soto for the next several years? My goodness. Beyond their overwhelming talent, the Dodgers have the resources and the culture that give Soto the best shot of winning in the short- and long-term.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a track record of signing star players. It’s always been a key part of his formula and how he’s won wherever he’s gone. I believe he has one more future Hall of Famer on his mind: Soto. J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber’s combined $44 million comes off the Phillies’ books after 2025; Nick Castellanos’ $20 million per year comes off after 2026. There is a pathway to make a Soto deal work financially by backloading the first couple of years of a 12- to 15-year contract. And, Phillies ownership — with Dombrowski and before he arrived — has shown it will play in the deep end of free agency and dish out record deals.
5. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox know they made a mistake when they decided not to go all-in to keep Mookie Betts, and they’ve learned from their missteps in recent years. They appear to be serious players for Soto. They have one of the best farm systems in the game and payroll flexibility going forward. Their meeting with Soto went well, as they sought to convince him that the special talent in their system will allow them to spend on free agents and trade acquisitions over the next several years. Soto was impressed with that aspect of their presentation, according to a league source briefed on the meeting.
Five teams that could surprise
6. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays finished second in the Ohtani sweepstakes, and they have the resources to make the largest offer to Soto. They can sell him on representing a country — not just a city — but can they really convince him they’re positioned to win?
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have struggled over the years to land top position player free agents, but they were the highest bidder for Aaron Judge before the Yankees matched the offer and they were the highest bidder for Carlos Correa before nixing the deal over concerns about his medical records. Perhaps Buster Posey, their new president of baseball operations, might be able to convince Soto to sign with them — but this is a long shot, especially with a payroll reduction possibly on the horizon.
8. Washington Nationals
There could not be a better script for Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo than to trade Soto to San Diego for a Herschel Walker-type prospect package and then two and a half years later, re-sign Soto.
9. Houston Astros
Astros owner Jim Crane has historically been opposed to long-term contracts as he allowed both Correa and George Springer to depart over the length of the deal. He did extend Jose Altuve and is working to do the same with Alex Bregman. However, I think it’s more likely he focuses on extending Kyle Tucker than landing Soto.
10. San Diego Padres
If the late Peter Seidler hadn’t gotten ill, he might have completed a long-term contract to keep Soto in San Diego. However, that would assume Soto wasn’t focused on reaching free agency and he showed otherwise. It’s unlikely the Padres’ current ownership team would be willing to put another huge long-term contract on the books at this point, but I will never bet against A.J. Preller pulling off a surprise move.
(Top image: Dan Goldfard / The Athletic. Photo: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos / Getty Images)
