The biggest college football game of this weekend is Indiana at Ohio State, but that game’s importance doesn’t mean it will be close. My projection model has Ohio State winning by 16 points, which is more than the 12.5-point spread.
Beyond that game, my model has Notre Dame by 17.5 against Army and Arizona State by 6.5 against BYU, handing the Cougars a second loss in a row. As for Nebraska fans hoping to finally get bowl eligibility, Saturday’s game against Wisconsin is a toss up. Buckle up, Husker fans.
For context on these numbers, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 13 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my best bets for the week.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 13 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 NC State |
|
|
53.5
|
51.5
|
 Georgia Tech |
-7
|
-9
|
|
|
 Temple |
|
|
53
|
55.5
|
 UTSA |
-14
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Purdue |
|
|
51.5
|
49.5
|
 Michigan St. |
-11
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 UNLV |
|
|
59.5
|
61.5
|
 San José St. |
10
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Indiana |
|
|
53.5
|
51.5
|
 Ohio State |
-16
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 Wake Forest |
|
|
71.5
|
66.5
|
 Miami |
-22.5
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Ole Miss |
|
|
55
|
55.5
|
 Florida |
10.5
|
10.5
|
|
|
 SMU |
|
|
58
|
57.5
|
 Virginia |
8
|
9.5
|
|
|
 Illinois |
|
|
50
|
47.5
|
 Rutgers |
-0.5
|
1
|
|
|
 Iowa |
|
|
44.5
|
45.5
|
 Maryland |
5.5
|
6.5
|
|
|
 UConn |
|
|
56.5
|
54.5
|
 Syracuse |
-11
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 No. Carolina |
|
|
58
|
55.5
|
 Boston Coll. |
3
|
3
|
|
|
 Sam Houston |
|
|
58.5
|
55.5
|
 J’ville State |
-4
|
-6
|
|
|
 UMass |
|
|
51.5
|
55.5
|
 Georgia |
-41
|
-42.5
|
|
|
 UTEP |
|
|
49
|
52.5
|
 Tennessee |
-36
|
-41.5
|
|
|
 W. Kentucky |
|
|
55
|
56.5
|
 Liberty |
-2.5
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 Bowling Green |
|
|
56
|
56.5
|
 Ball State |
12.5
|
11.5
|
|
|
 Rice |
|
|
52
|
51.5
|
 UAB |
5
|
6.5
|
|
|
 New Mexico St. |
|
|
56
|
52.5
|
 Middle Tenn. |
-4
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 James Madison |
|
|
59.5
|
59.5
|
 App. State |
5.5
|
7
|
|
|
 Arizona |
|
|
62
|
59.5
|
 TCU |
-11
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 FIU |
|
|
44
|
44.5
|
 Kennesaw St. |
10
|
8.5
|
|
|
 La. Monroe |
|
|
53
|
52.5
|
 Arkansas St. |
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 South Alabama |
|
|
51
|
54.5
|
 Southern Miss |
21
|
21.5
|
|
|
 Charlotte |
|
|
53
|
48.5
|
 FAU |
1.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Kentucky |
|
|
47
|
47.5
|
 Texas |
-18
|
-20.5
|
|
|
 Penn State |
|
|
46
|
45.5
|
 Minnesota |
12
|
11.5
|
|
|
 BYU |
|
|
51.5
|
48.5
|
 Arizona State |
-6.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 Colorado |
|
|
57
|
59.5
|
 Kansas |
3.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Northwestern |
|
|
36.5
|
36.5
|
 Michigan |
-13.5
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Wisconsin |
|
|
40
|
42.5
|
 Nebraska |
0
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 Stanford |
|
|
54.5
|
54.5
|
 California |
-17
|
-14
|
|
|
 Texas Tech |
|
|
63.5
|
67.5
|
 Oklahoma St. |
3
|
3.5
|
|
|
 UCF |
|
|
65.5
|
63.5
|
 West Virginia |
3
|
3
|
|
|
 San Diego St. |
|
|
64
|
61.5
|
 Utah State |
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Georgia So. |
|
|
59
|
56.5
|
 Coastal Car. |
-3
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 East Carolina |
|
|
74.5
|
72.5
|
 North Texas |
0
|
-3
|
|
|
 Tulsa |
|
|
56.5
|
60.5
|
 South Florida |
-16
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Louisiana Tech |
|
|
45.5
|
48.5
|
 Arkansas |
-22
|
-22.5
|
|
|
 Pitt |
|
|
57
|
57.5
|
 Louisville |
-9
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 Missouri |
|
|
59.5
|
56.5
|
 Miss. State |
7
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Troy |
|
|
56
|
52.5
|
 Louisiana |
-9
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Army |
|
|
48
|
44.5
|
 Notre Dame |
-17.5
|
-14.5
|
|
|
 Boise State |
|
|
54
|
56.5
|
 Wyoming |
22
|
22.5
|
|
|
 Wash. State |
|
|
58
|
56.5
|
 Oregon State |
14
|
12.5
|
|
|
 Baylor |
|
|
48.5
|
50.5
|
 Houston |
10
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Georgia State |
|
|
56
|
58.5
|
 Texas State |
-17.5
|
-20.5
|
|
|
 Alabama |
|
|
43.5
|
47.5
|
 Oklahoma |
15
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Texas A&M |
|
|
45.5
|
46.5
|
 Auburn |
4.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Iowa State |
|
|
40
|
42.5
|
 Utah |
6.5
|
7
|
|
|
 Marshall |
|
|
49
|
51.5
|
 Old Dominion |
-1
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Vanderbilt |
|
|
50
|
53.5
|
 LSU |
-10
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Cincinnati |
|
|
53
|
52.5
|
 Kansas State |
-10
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 Virginia Tech |
|
|
46.5
|
47.5
|
 Duke |
3
|
3
|
|
|
 Air Force |
|
|
41.5
|
44.5
|
 Nevada |
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 USC |
|
|
52
|
51.5
|
 UCLA |
5
|
4.5
|
|
|
 Colorado St. |
|
|
47
|
45.5
|
 Fresno State |
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Bryson Daily: Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)
