The gap between second and third place in last season’s Premier League was seven points. In 2022-23, it was nine. In both of those campaigns, it was Manchester City and Arsenal as the undisputed pairing at the top.
But 2024-25 is unfolding in an unexpected manner. Pep Guardiola has lost four consecutive games across all competitions for the first time in his managerial career, while Mikel Arteta’s side are already nine points off the pace in the Premier League, with practically every metric — from possession to pass accuracy to shots on goal — taking a noticeable dive.
As both clubs wrestle with a new reality of injuries and excuses, missed chances and devastating counter-attacking blows, The Athletic’s Thom Harris and Liam Tharme take to the tactics board to offer some potential solutions.
Arsenal
More often than not, it’s the straightforward explanation that makes the most sense. Arsenal haven’t been their usual selves in recent weeks — carving out lower-quality chances, stringing together fewer passes, and struggling to pen their opponents and sustain pressure — and that has largely coincided with an injury to their most influential creative player.
The impact of Martin Odegaard’s absence extended far beyond his individual contribution to Arsenal’s attacking play. Without his ability in those pockets close to Bukayo Saka, able to operate in tight spaces and break down the defensive block with teasing passes in behind, Mikel Arteta has been forced to tweak the offensive shape in an attempt to keep their potent right-hand side firing. That has created a knock-on effect.
Against Newcastle, for example, it was down to Leandro Trossard or Kai Havertz to drift into the Odegaard zone during the build-up, while Thomas Partey once again filled in at right-back with caution taken over the fitness of Ben White. Here we can see one of the common in-possession approaches, as one of the full-backs — on this occasion Jurrien Timber — pushed into midfield, while a back three sat behind the midfield duo of Mikel Merino and Declan Rice. Havertz drops out of the striker’s spot and towards Saka.
This is where Arsenal usually look their most dangerous, but without the overlapping runs of White (who is out of contention once more after minor knee surgery) and the clever interplay of Odegaard, they struggle to move the defence around and leave Saka facing two defenders. Merino wanders forward, but with Havertz out wide, a cross into the box isn’t really an option either, forcing them to retreat and reset.
Facing an increasing number of compact, organised defensive systems in the Premier League, Arsenal miss the unpredictability that a more fluid right-hand side provides. Attacking numbers have taken an alarming dip — their expected goals (xG) per game has dropped by almost a quarter from last season — but consistent minutes for their difference-making players, along with a return to a more familiar system should help to boost those numbers without the need for any major surgery.
Alongside those tweaks, it will be interesting to see if the increased height of this Arsenal team will pay dividends with those patterns rejuvenated by Odegaard’s return. Merino has already shown glimpses of his ability to attack crosses with two set-piece chances (and his first Arsenal goal) against Liverpool, along with a number of promising moments in a late cameo at Chelsea.
He linked up very effectively with Brais Mendez at his previous club Real Sociedad — a left-footed midfielder who is very dangerous when he can receive in the half-space and deliver an in-swinging cross. Sound familiar?
No player found Merino in the box more often than Mendez throughout their two seasons together, the former’s drive to attack the penalty area complimented by the latter’s appetite to curl the ball towards the back post in search of a crucial flick.
Both Saka and Odegaard can deliver that cross, and such adventurous movement from a deeper midfielder is something else that could add that bit of variety and attacking thrust that Arsenal have been missing during their difficult run, with the 6ft 4in (193 cm) frame of Havertz returned to a more central role.
Against Chelsea, we can see the extra space for Saka with those dynamics on the right flank reinstated; he receives the ball in a one-vs-one situation, with Odegaard lurking inside and White limbering up to overlap. Meanwhile, Merino looks to catch Moises Caicedo off guard by attacking the space on his blind side.
By the time Saka shapes up to cross in frame one below, White’s run has taken Marc Cucurella away, while Odegaard is open for one more pass. In the middle, Merino strides into the space between the centre-backs — pulled apart by Havertz’s presence — and is inches away from making contact with a tantalising ball across the face of goal.
Despite a recruitment drive that looked for height and aerial prowess in the summer, only around 16 per cent of Arsenal’s chipped crosses from open play have found their intended target, the lowest such rate in the division.
Reigniting those familiar attacking patterns will only increase fluency up top, and the basketball-team evolution that Arteta envisioned might finally start to take shape.
Manchester City
The biggest problem for Manchester City isn’t just their defensive leakiness, but that they’re struggling to defend across various phases. Pep Guardiola’s teams have always been vulnerable to counter-attacks — and always will be given a desire for possession and territorial control — but recent defeats have shown gaps in their mid-block defending and high pressing.
For so long, those were strengths for City. Last season, they averaged 7.5 final-third regains per game. Since 2018-19, only Liverpool (with 7.6 per game in 2021-22) have bettered that in a Premier League campaign, but 2024-25 City are down at 4.9 final-third regains a match — that’s their lowest such figure under Guardiola.
In City’s run of four consecutive defeats, they’ve conceded 24 big chances (nine have been scored), 11 direct attacks — which Opta define as sequences starting in a team’s own half, with at least 50 per cent forward movement, ending in a shot/touch in the opposition box — and made only 11 final-third regains.
Guardiola’s view that “every game was different” in the losing run is justified, but Tottenham Hotspur, Bournemouth, Sporting and Brighton & Hove Albion all played through City’s press with ease.
A big issue for City is the defensive contribution of their wingers, who play aggressive roles in pressing opposition centre-backs. This demands City’s full-backs make aggressive jumps to opposition full-backs, which leaves them vulnerable out wide.
This was the case for Tottenham’s opening goal in the League Cup defeat. Left winger Matheus Nunes jumps to right centre-back Cristian Romero, as City go man-for-man centrally once Tottenham play short.
That means Nathan Ake, City’s left-back, has to cover ground to close down Tottenham right-back Archie Gray.
It means City’s entire left side is pulled up and across, and while they have a two-v-one on the halfway line, No 6 Ilkay Gundogan loses track of Tottenham No 8 Dejan Kulusevksi. Ake doesn’t apply enough pressure to Gray to stop the channel ball into winger Brennan Johnson, and he flicks it through for Kulusevski’s third-man run.
Suddenly, in two passes, Tottenham have a three-v-two and Kulusevski puts in a low, early cross for left winger Timo Werner, who finishes past Ederson.
Sporting created a big chance from an almost identical move down the opposite side of the pitch. From a throw-in on their right, Sporting work the ball to the left.
The press looks slightly different this time because City are pressing a back three rather than a four, but right-back Rico Lewis has to jump to wing-back Geny Catamo as Nunes is pressing centre-back Zeno Debast. City are trying to lock on in midfield, which means centre-back Jahmai Simpson-Pusey steps out towards Pedro Goncalves.
The space that Lewis has vacated is ideal for a channel ball (notice the pattern) for No 9 Viktor Gyokeres.
City have Simpson-Pusey and Manuel Akanji (out of shot above) covering and prevent the Sweden international racing through, but become incredibly passive and do not regain shape quickly enough when Gyokeres has the ball out on the wing.
That gives him the time and space to play a one-two with Goncalves, running on the blind side of Lewis and Akanji, and Gyokeres ought to do better from the one-on-one. He hesitates, unsure whether to pass or shoot, then tries to round Ederson but his shot is saved. It was a similar story at the Vitality Stadium a few days earlier.
“We could not match up the intensity of the situation,” said Guardiola after the Bournemouth defeat, a game in which City tried to press high and Bournemouth went over them. For the second goal, Bournemouth played short from the goalkeeper then immediately went long to left winger Antoine Semenyo, who was overlapped by full-back Milos Kerkez, and crossed early (like Kulusevski for Werner) to No 9 Evanilson for a one-touch finish.
“The long balls, we could not win it, and when you don’t win these types of balls to (Antoine) Semenyo or strikers, you have defend deeper,” added Guardiola.
This is the crux of it for City. Fixture congestion and injuries might be playing a role in the pressing intensity that they can consistently provide, but structurally they have issues. City aren’t conceding low-xG screamers, instead they are allowing big chances from within 12 yards of goal and between the goalposts, as we can see from the shot map below.
Guardiola could start his press from a more conservative shape, taking a leaf from Mikel Arteta’s book, and position the wingers deeper in a 4-4-2 so that they can press opposition full-backs. This should prevent City from having to overcommit their full-backs early, and means that the far-side winger (i.e. City’s right winger when teams are building up down City’s left) can tuck in onto a midfielder and help track runners.
Brighton picked apart their high-line and 4-1-4-1 mid-block with a second-half switch to a 4-3-3 and vertical balls into the feet of the No 9. They consistently created a front-five to overload City’s back four, opening up a switch from the centre-back to left-winger Kaoru Mitoma, who was able to attack right-back Kyle Walker one-v-one.
Here are two examples. City’s back four is within 20 yards of Carlos Baleba, but with no pressure on the ball he can pick a pass to Mitoma. Walker is narrow because of Georginio Rutter’s positioning.
Right winger Savinho is slow to get back and Walker ends up defending a two-v-one as Brighton left-back Pervis Estupinan overlaps. His cross is headed over by Rutter, who gets between the centre-backs, but a better cross might have been able to take advantage of the three-v-one that Brighton had at the back post against Lewis (5ft 7in).
The second example, just four minutes later, is a result of Walker being so preoccupied in trying to defend the Mitoma pass, that he leaves a more dangerous ball open: the direct one through the middle to No 9 Joao Pedro, who runs off the back of Mateo Kovacic. Again, City are vertically compact but Jan Paul van Hecke is under no pressure.
Walker does just enough, recovering and giving Pedro a slight nudge which knocks him off balance, and he shoots wide. Though, once more, in a single pass City have given up a big chance and had to resort to last-ditch tactics — and have risked conceding a penalty too.
In their mid-block shape, City need to adjust their line of engagement. City’s average defensive line is way up this season compared to the past five campaigns, however the frequency at which they are catching opponents out per game (1.6) is at its lowest since 2018-19 (also 1.6).
The absence of Rodri is as much a symptom as a cause of these problems. Last season he had the highest aerial win rate (71.1 per cent) of any City player — ninth overall in the league — and was as much an asset in defending long balls as stopping counter-attacks or breaking lines.
Kovacic, (who is 5ft 10in, Rodri is 6ft 3in) hasn’t got the same positional discipline and has contested only five aerial duels in 11 appearances this season. City might be better off pushing him further forward in the press and dropping Ilkay Gundogan deeper as cover.
Either way, structural issues have been just as damaging as injury to City’s title defence. And they will need fixing if they are to retain their crown for another season.
(Header photos: Getty Images)
