Kyle Dubas and the Pittsburgh Penguins are open for business. Forget making the playoffs or even being competitive, the storied franchise is quickly becoming one of the worst teams in the NHL.
The blueprint back to long-term respectability likely requires a deep rebuild, which starts with selling off pieces for future assets. Lars Eller was the first to go, but he certainly won’t be the last. Marcus Pettersson, an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, is the most valuable trade chip that the Penguins will be taking bids for.
The Vancouver Canucks, meanwhile, emerged as a dark horse contender last year. It’s been an inconsistent start on Canada’s West Coast, but the team is still well-positioned to make the playoffs. Adding a high-end second-pair defenseman will be by far the No. 1 item on Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford’s shopping list this season.
We reported earlier this week that the Canucks and Oilers have interest in the lanky defenseman. But is a fit between Pettersson and the Canucks practical?
Let’s dive into Pettersson’s game, his potential fit in Vancouver, the acquisition cost and how the Canucks should ultimately approach this opportunity.
What does Pettersson bring?
Pettersson is a very dependable, stay-at-home, top-four defenseman. There’s nothing particularly flashy about his game, but he’s precisely the kind of player who can help a team thrive in the postseason.
At 6-foot-4, Pettersson has a massive wingspan and is a very adept penalty killer, especially as it pertains to sealing off passing lanes. He’s also a perfect defense partner for a more offensively minded defenseman. Pettersson has been at his best in Pittsburgh while paired with the likes of Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang and John Marino, all of whom like to push offense.
Pettersson is skilled enough to play with players of that ilk — he won’t wow you with his talent, but he makes a good first pass and sees the ice fairly well for a defensive-minded player — and has a knack for taking care of more aggressive partners.
This is a player with absolutely no ego, someone who should probably be wearing a letter on his uniform in Pittsburgh. Pettersson is one of the most respected players in the Penguins’ locker room, having formed a close relationship with Pittsburgh’s future Hall of Famers while also spending considerable time helping with the Penguins’ younger players. He’s a genuine leader and as fearless as they come, having dropped the gloves with the likes of Darnell Nurse and Tom Wilson. He’ll always be the first to defend his teammates.
Pettersson’s primary weakness is his slight frame, which can cause problems against the NHL’s premier power forwards. Durability has been an issue for Pettersson in the past, as he used to display a tendency to wear down late in the season. However, that has been a non-issue during the past two seasons.
This is a player who can thrive on a first or second defense pairing and who is a very good penalty killer. He typically plays on the left side and is more comfortable there, though he can play on the right side if necessary.
Is he a sensible fit for Vancouver?
The Canucks’ second pair, which takes on tough defensive matchups, has been a major liability this season. Pettersson can excel in a top-four shutdown role so it seems like a decent match on the surface — he would instantly become Vancouver’s third best defenseman and would be a sizable upgrade on what it’s icing with the current bottom-four.
But just because Pettersson is an upgrade doesn’t mean he’s the perfect fit or the best bang-for-buck option.
The second pair’s biggest issue is an inability to move the puck out of the defensive zone with speed and control. Opposing teams dominate this pair on the forecheck and that’s why they constantly get hemmed in their own zone. What the Canucks really need is a dynamic, skilled puck mover who can take the burden off Carson Soucy or Tyler Myers on breakouts.
This is where the fit with Pettersson isn’t perfect. The 28-year-old can make a good first pass but he doesn’t have the high-end skating ability to maneuver past heavy forechecking pressure effortlessly.
Corey Sznajder’s microstat tracking reveals that Pettersson led 5.6 zone exits with possession for every 60 minutes he played between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, a figure that’s slightly below league average. He’s also accustomed to being more of the steady, stay-at-home presence for a more offensive-minded partner who likes to make plays with the puck. Myers doesn’t fit that bill, meaning Pettersson would need to adapt his playing style to take on more responsibilities with the puck.
That’s not to say it wouldn’t work — Soucy and Myers were a solid second pair last year despite neither being a gifted player with the puck. Pettersson’s a better player than Soucy, so he could pan out with Myers. But it’s hard to predict whether they’d successfully mesh together, which is a red flag considering the assets that Vancouver would be paying to acquire him.
The other option would be to shift Pettersson to the right side and have him play with Hughes, which would allow Rick Tocchet to bump Filip Hronek down to the second pair to presumably play with Soucy.
Hughes and Pettersson would probably flourish together (although the fit likely wouldn’t be as perfect as Hughes-Hronek) but the bigger question mark is whether Hronek can actually drive his own pair. Is Hronek dynamic enough as an individual play-driver? He hasn’t been given an extended opportunity to provide an answer to that question one way or another, but the extremely small samples where we have seen him without Hughes haven’t inspired a lot of confidence.
Why should we be skeptical that Hronek can drive his own pair? Well, Hronek isn’t a high-end puck mover, either. That description may sound strange given Hronek’s impressive point production and offensive zone tools, but the results going back to his time in Detroit back that up. He posted very similar zone exit with control numbers as Pettersson and ranked fourth among Red Wings defensemen in that category during the season he was traded to Vancouver.
To sum it up: Pettersson is a solid, defense-first top-four presence. He would be a clear upgrade for the Canucks’ blue line but the fit isn’t perfect given that the club’s stylistic preference should be puck-moving help first.
What would the Penguins want?
The Penguins aren’t in a position where they are narrowing in on one player or one role. Rather, they could use considerable help at forward and on their blue line moving forward. Dubas would be interested in adding a high draft pick, certainly. Draft picks and prospects are of interest to him. The Penguins have a couple of blue-chip prospects in Rutger McGroarty, who is a forward, and Harrison Brunicke, a defenseman. They don’t figure to be picky. They need forwards and defensemen.
The only position in which the Penguins have some depth in their system is in goal, so it would be surprising if Dubas were to display much interest in any goaltenders in the Cancuks’ system. The Penguins are extremely thin at center on their NHL roster and in their system after Sidney Crosby, 37, and Evgeni Malkin, 38. There’s a good chance that Malkin will retire following the 2025-26 season when his contract expires. So, ideally, the Penguins would love to get their hands on a center prospect. But again, they’ll be happy to collect wingers, defensemen or draft picks.
To gauge Pettersson’s approximate trade value, we can search for recent examples of top-four shutdown defensemen who’ve been traded as rentals and see what prices they fetched.
In half of these deals, the selling team was able to net a first-round pick. In the remaining deals, with the most recent being Chris Tanev at last year’s deadline, it was a package with multiple pieces starting with a second-round pick.
Assets-wise, the Canucks have their first and second-round picks for 2025 and 2026. They didn’t pick until the third round last year, so it’ll be fascinating to see how open management is to moving draft picks.
Nils Höglander could also be a piece that Vancouver dangles. The 23-year-old Swedish winger ranked top 10 among all NHL players in scoring 24 five-on-five goals last season. He had a promising start to the season in a top-six role but has found himself back in Rick Tocchet’s doghouse because of his defensive lapses and undisciplined penalties. He’s currently on the fourth line and has produced just five points in 18 games.
Overall, though, Höglander has made legitimate strides in cutting down his turnovers and defensive mistakes over the last year and a half. He’s a speedy, feisty forechecker and battles in the hard areas of the ice despite his short height. Analytically, he’s been a strong even-strength play-driver.
Höglander is a young, talented plug-and-play top-nine forward who’s potentially falling out of favor on a deep Vancouver team, but in Pittsburgh, he’d perhaps instantly become the club’s top left winger. He could be an attractive piece for the Penguins in potential trade conversations.
What should the Canucks do?
Pettersson is a player the Canucks should keep tabs on, but it may be best for management to take a patient wait-and-see approach for a couple of key reasons:
1. It’d be useful to see how the market develops closer to the deadline to see what other top-four defenders are available. Non-rentals like Rasmus Andersson or even Mike Matheson could become available and both would be better stylistic fits given their excellent skating ability and puck-moving chops. They’re also under contract through next season.
2. There are too many uncertain factors around the Canucks to justify spending premium assets on a rental this early into the season. Vancouver gave up a lot to get Elias Lindholm last year which made sense because the club looked like a dark horse contender. But with the uncertainty around Thatcher Demko, J.T. Miller and the club’s overall inconsistent start to the year, nobody knows yet if the Canucks have a genuine shot at contending for the Stanley Cup. Closer to the deadline, we’ll have a clearer idea. If the Canucks look like they’re one defenseman away from being a contender, then a splashy upgrade would be sensible. But if they still look like a flawed team and one top-four addition isn’t going to instantly fix them, then it’d be a poor return on investment to surrender a significant package for a rental defenseman who could walk away this summer.
The Canucks may also want to be patient for cap reasons because they can’t afford to take on Pettersson’s full $4.025 million cap hit right now. Pittsburgh would either have to retain salary and/or take back a notable contract, which would presumably increase the acquisition cost.
Vancouver will continue accruing cap space as the season progresses, however, and it could build at a more rapid pace once players like Demko come off injured reserve. There should be a point later in the season when the club will be able to absorb Pettersson’s full cap hit. Predicting when exactly that will be is nearly impossible because a lot will depend on injuries. But let’s illustrate a best-case scenario with the help of PuckPedia just to provide a hypothetical example.
In this best-case scenario, let’s start with assuming Demko, Miller and Derek Forbort all return to the roster within two-to-six weeks. If nobody else gets hurt, then the return of those players will allow the Canucks to send other skaters down. They could trim the roster down to as low as 21 players (one extra skater) and by Jan. 15, the Canucks would build up enough wiggle room to add Pettersson without retention.
Here’s what this hypothetical scenario would look like:
Image courtesy PuckPedia
This might be wishful thinking though, because we’re assuming that they won’t run into any additional injuries and don’t run a full 23-man roster. Any injuries and subsequent call-ups would significantly eat into this figure and delay the timeline for the Canucks to accrue sufficient cap space.
In any case, the main takeaway is that while Pettersson is a player the Canucks should monitor, now doesn’t seem like the optimal time to pay a steep price for a rental, despite the club’s desperate need for top-four help. Pettersson is a very good top-four defender, but he isn’t the perfect stylistic fit for Vancouver’s second-pair puck-moving needs. Management should be patient to see what other options emerge closer to the deadline, as well as whether this iteration of the Canucks is good enough to warrant a major deadline splash for a second consecutive season.
(Photo: Derek Cain / Getty Images)
