Vikings-Bears preview, predictions: What does Brian Flores have in store for Caleb Williams?

When he was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, Brian Flores faced six rookie quarterbacks. The Dolphins won five of those six games.

His success against young quarterbacks has continued since he’s been the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive coordinator. Minnesota has not matched up with rookies, but youngsters like Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud have struggled. Neither was picked as high as Chicago Bears starter Caleb Williams, who will receive the Flores test this Sunday.

What is he in store for? And what can the Vikings expect from the Bears? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Williams. What will he look like against Flores’ defense? Most young quarterbacks turtle against the pressure. They cannot handle the pre-snap structure and the post-snap movement makes them squirm. Last week, Will Levis underwent the experience. Earlier this year, Stroud was introduced to the mayhem. The first time Justin Fields played Minnesota last year, Flores blitzed him almost 70 percent of the game. Fields struggled mightily. The two teams that have blitzed Williams the most this year are the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans. Williams did not throw for a touchdown in either one of those games. The Bears have a different offensive coordinator now in Thomas Brown. He and Chicago’s pass protection unit, specifically, will have their hands full Sunday.

Krawczynski: Sam Darnold. He played very well last weekend against Tennessee and was a missed connection with Jalen Nailor away from an outstanding stat line. That was an important one for him after some shakiness over the previous few weeks. He was limited in practice on Wednesday with a foot injury, which is something to keep an eye on in this game. Darnold was a full participant in practice on Thursday so it is unlikely to play a big role, but mobility is a sneaky part of his game, as he showed against the Titans. If he is more bound to the pocket, that will take away one of the ways he can extend drives. I don’t think it’s going to be an issue, but I’ll be watching to see how he’s moving early in the game.

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Biggest concerns

Lewis: This game is being played at Soldier Field. It’s not so much the surface or the weather, but I’m worried about the way these games usually feel. Maybe the word is grimy or ugly, but there’s just something about them. In the last 10 years, these matchups usually finish within a seven-point margin of victory. The closeness means a couple of plays here and there, per usual, decide the game. Both teams have generated turnovers this year. The Bears have somehow lost three games this season when they’ve won the turnover margin. The odds will be in Chicago’s favor if that happens again this weekend. This just feels like a game that’s going to take a gutty effort from Minnesota. The Vikings have it in them.

Krawczynski: Turnovers. As Alec alluded to above, this game is ripe for one of those that includes a fluky fumble or a bad interception — mistakes that open the door for a poorly coached team to make things far more difficult on the Vikings than they should be. Darnold playing a clean game last weekend was a good sign, but taking risks is part of his DNA. That can be thrilling when he grips it and rips it into a tight window to Justin Jefferson for a big play. In a game like this, though, that risk can really come back to bite them. Darnold is going to need to play with patience and discipline so the Bears don’t get any hope. Get on top of them early, and they might cruise.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Kevin O’Connell’s offense vs. Matt Eberflus’ defense. The Vikings torched the Bears’ defense in 2022, then had a hard time in 2023. Chicago’s defensive personnel improved, but there are two additional factors playing a role in those prior matchups. First, the Bears limited the Vikings’ ground game, holding Minnesota to 3.1 yards per carry. Second, the Bears increased their usage of quarters coverage (four deep defenders with three underneath players) and Cover 1 (man coverage, essentially). It helped Chicago that the Vikings did not have superstar receiver Jefferson in the late-season game between the two teams last season. And it’ll be interesting, as it always is, to see the Bears attempt to limit Jefferson this time around.  

Krawczynski: Brown vs. Flores. I’ll take the other side of the coin. The Bears’ offense looked to have a little more zip last week after Eberflus fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Brown now will have his hands full getting Williams ready against Flores’s chaotic looks. I think the Bears will walk into Soldier Field fully believing they can win, but Brown will have to find some ways to simplify things for Williams so he doesn’t get confused by Harrison Smith lining up all over the field and Flores sending pressure from all angles. If the Vikings can rattle Williams, they will be just fine.

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: Can the Vikings complete an undefeated November? That was the internal goal as the Vikings entered this month, and they’ve done the job to this point. Chicago ignites a stretch of seven straight NFC games, a meat grinder to end the season with the Vikings jockeying for playoff position. Securing a fourth straight victory would propel the Vikings into an intriguing home stretch against the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons. It would also keep Minnesota within striking distance of the Detroit Lions. A win would solidify recaptured momentum after the two losses in five days, and it would add a further exclamation point to the job O’Connell, Flores, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the front office did ahead of what was externally deemed as a transition year.

Krawczynski: When is the massive Jefferson game coming? He hasn’t scored a touchdown in more than a month and has 11 catches for 129 yards in the last two games combined. Jefferson is used to doing that every week. Opponents have loaded up on him and are daring Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to beat them. The Vikings have been able to get it done against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Titans without that big-time JJ game. He will be going against a terrific cornerback in Jaylon Johnson on a playing surface that isn’t exactly conducive to speedy receivers. Getting a big one from Jefferson would go a long way toward helping the Vikings handle a team that they should beat, but always have difficulty with in Chicago.

How these teams match up from data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and combined winning efficiency for strength of schedule:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 21, Bears 18. Chicago’s defensive front is no joke. Montez Sweat, Gervon Dexter Sr. and DeMarcus Walker might not be the biggest names, but they’re capable. The Vikings’ interior offensive line must have a good day, and Darnold needs to limit the turnovers. If those things happen offensively, the Vikings should be in good enough shape to exit with a win.

Krawczynski: Vikings 17, Bears 16. Buckle up, man. This has all the makings of another grinder in the Windy City. The Bears looked better against Green Bay last week. Really should’ve won the game. I don’t think they’re going to give in easily, even if their coach is on borrowed time.

(Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)