With as many as nine teams still alive for the Big 12 championship game entering the final weekend, the chaos stretching from the rivers to the mountains and deserts to the plains demands its own nickname. For today, let’s call it Big Twelvtion.
After yet another wild and upset-riddled Saturday, the Big 12 has four teams tied atop the 16-team conference: Arizona State, Iowa State, Colorado and BYU each have 6-2 records entering the season’s final week. Arizona State stayed hot and handed BYU the Cougars’ second loss in as many weeks, 28-23 in Tempe. Iowa State survived against Utah 31-28, while Kansas beat one of the co-leaders for the third consecutive week, this time smacking Colorado 37-21.
Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia are a game behind at 5-3, and depending on how the results shake out next week, they could wind up in the conversation.
It appears the only way a Big 12 team will qualify for the College Football Playoff will be by winning the conference championship game. The tiebreakers are many and varied, but they all seem to favor Iowa State and Arizona State. But every path starts with winning next week.
On Friday, Colorado plays host to Oklahoma State. On Saturday, Arizona State travels to Arizona, Kansas State heads to Iowa State and BYU hosts Houston. The simplest path to a title game matchup would be if only two of those four teams won their season finale. Should all four win their games, this is how the tiebreaker would shake out:
The quartet played four common opponents — UCF, Kansas, Utah and Kansas State. Arizona State won all four of those games, while Colorado went 2-2. Arizona State would become the top seed, and Colorado would be eliminated. The second spot would come down to BYU and Iowa State.
The Cougars and Cyclones played six common opponents and both went 5-1, with both losing to Kansas. Their tiebreaker would advance to the fourth clause, which is strength of conference schedule. That favors the Cyclones, whose uncommon conference opponents with BYU currently have a 13-11 Big Ten record. BYU’s other three Big 12 foes are 8-16.
The only game that took place among the four teams happened Saturday, Arizona State’s 28-23 win against BYU. That complicates the tiebreaking process but would matter only in a BYU-Arizona State tiebreaker. As for how three-team races among the 6-2 finishers would shake out, here’s a look:
Iowa State, Colorado, Arizona State: 1. Iowa State; 2. Arizona State. All three teams are 4-2 against common opponents. Colorado would be eliminated in the third tiebreaker, which is win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (Arizona State, Iowa State did beat/would have beaten Kansas State). Iowa State would wear the home jersey in Arlington based on the same tiebreaking category, beating Cincinnati while Arizona State did not.
Iowa State, Colorado, BYU: 1. Iowa State; 2. BYU. Both Iowa State and BYU are 4-1 against common Big 12 opponents, while Colorado is 3-2. In conference strength of schedule, Iowa State’s 13-11 record against uncommon opponents beats BYU (8-16).
Iowa State, Arizona State, BYU: 1. Arizona State; 2. Iowa State. Against common opponents, the Sun Devils are 4-0, while BYU and Iowa State are 3-1. Then in the conference strength of schedule tiebreaker, Iowa State’s 13-11 record against uncommon opponents beats BYU (8-16).
Colorado, Arizona State, BYU: 1. Arizona State; 2. BYU. Against common opponents, Arizona State is 6-0, which gives it the first seed. Between BYU and Colorado, BYU wins based on its record against common opponents (6-1 vs. 5-2).
As for how Texas Tech, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas State and TCU join the party, that is totally dependent upon at least three of the four first-place teams losing next weekend in some combination. Even for hypotheticals, that’s too deep.
(Photo: Chris Gardner / Getty Images)
