Ugly wins don’t mean anything when you’re 2-0. A 2-0 mark must instill some calm for teams in that position, like the Kansas City Chiefs.
After a walk-off win against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions sit pretty after winning their first two games, and they remain at the top of the odds to win the Super Bowl at +450. The Chiefs are followed by the San Francisco 49ers (+600) and then the 2-0 Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans (both +1100).
Now that the season is fully in swing, with the field beginning to separate a tiny bit in the win-loss column, we’re revisiting Super Bowl odds for this season. It’s no surprise the Chiefs still hold sway at the top, along with the usual suspects, but we’ll get into a few dark horse contenders that have risen over the first two weeks of NFL action.
Super Bowl LIX odds
Odds update live and are from BetMGM.
All eyes should still remain on Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs Kingdom. They have come out of the gate with wins over two contenders from the AFC North in the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. It may not always be pretty for Andy Reid and Co., but KC has proven it can win in many ways — even when it turns the ball over three times and Mahomes posts 151 passing yards and two interceptions. The Chiefs will have to move forward without one of their lead horses, as running back Isiah Pacheco heads to the injured reserve after fracturing his fibula against the Bengals.
After starting the season with +1600 odds, Josh Allen and the Bills look to be in the mix after a dominant Week 2 win in Miami. Sean McDermott looks to keep the wagons circling as Buffalo pursues its fifth consecutive AFC East title. The Bills can get to 3-0 this week against the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. That outcome could prove pivotal, especially with a slate against the Ravens, Texans and New York Jets over the next three weeks.
The Texans were a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl and have lived up to the hype through two weeks. C.J. Stroud continues to ascend as one of the elite young signal callers in the game, and he’s got a strong foundation supporting him. From the talented skill group at his disposal to a tenacious defense under DeMeco Ryans’ guidance, the former Ohio State quarterback is set up to succeed. One other piece of note: Houston is atop the AFC South at 2-0, while the other teams in the division — Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans — are all 0-2.
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Let’s focus on a couple of dark-horse Super Bowl contenders. After signing a $100-million contract extension this offseason, Baker Mayfield has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at 2-0. I like their odds (+4000) as a low-stakes flier for Super Bowl LIX, especially after knocking off the Detroit Lions in Week 2, avenging their divisional-round playoff loss from a season ago.
The Bucs need their kudos, and not only for getting a win against one of the NFC’s favorites, but also for opening up with back-to-back conference wins as the NFC appears to be as wide open as ever. And let’s not forget — this team is still laden with players who helped Tom Brady win his seventh ring back in 2021.
A team Tampa Bay may be tested by in the NFC South, though? Look no further than the New Orleans Saints, who now sit at +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, shortened from +8000 before the season started. The Saints have built a 91-29 margin through two weeks.
Here are a couple wild stats for you. Derek Carr has led the Saints to scoring drives on his first 15 possessions of the season. Those 91 points are also tied for the fourth-most for a team through two games in league history.
One AFC dark horse of note is the Los Angeles Chargers (+4000). The Jim Harbaugh era has started against two lower-tier teams — I’m looking at you Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers — but we cannot blame the Chargers for beating the team in front of them. Justin Herbert hasn’t been asked to do too much yet (137 passing yards per game) but he has to appreciate the support he’s getting with a rushing attack that’s piling up 197.5 yards per game and a defense that’s allowing 6.5 points per game.
We know the type of coach Harbaugh is with his Super Bowl XLVII appearance with the 49ers and his national championship with Michigan last year. Although he wasn’t able to do so as a player, maybe the former Chargers QB can help the franchise land its first Super Bowl win and their first title since the AFL days in 1963.
But we also cannot count out three 1-1 teams at the top of the NFC’s highest odds with San Francisco, Detroit and the Philadelphia Eagles, who are currently tied with the Lions with the NFL’s fifth-best Super Bowl odds (+1200). All three have played in the NFC Championship over the past two seasons and have many veterans from those teams still on their rosters.
These 1-1 squads still have a lot to look forward to this season. But we will see how helpful — or unimpactful — a 2-0 start will be en route to a Super Bowl.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: David Eulitt / Getty Images)
