Should Newcastle play Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes together?

Boos at St James’ Park against Brighton last month, then boos in the away end at Chelsea.

The sentiment was hardly universal, but it was audible and felt especially noteworthy because rarely has Eddie Howe, or the decisions he makes, received such a negative reception during his three-year tenure as Newcastle United head coach.

But Sandro Tonali evokes a strong emotional response from many Newcastle supporters, who embraced the Italian during his 10-month suspension for gambling offences that covered most of his 2023-24 debut season and have been wooed by his technical excellence and on-ball quality.

That adoration was not diluted during the four successive Premier League matches Tonali started this September and October, despite Newcastle’s failure to win any of them and the subsequent questions about whether the balance of the XI was negatively affected by his inclusion.

Or more specifically, whether the midfield in Howe’s oft-used 4-3-3 formation could function effectively with Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes in the side.

A minority of fans were so exercised by Howe’s decision to withdraw Tonali in the 65th minute of that 1-0 loss to Brighton and the 68th minute in the 2-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge a week later that they vocalised their frustration with that booing.

It was not aimed at Joe Willock nor Sean Longstaff, the midfielders coming on in Tonali’s place in those two matches, but at Howe’s judgement and what they viewed as a premature removal of the 21-cap Italy international. Joelinton and Guimaraes had started alongside Tonali, and a strong argument could have been made to remove any of the trio early, yet it was the latter who was sacrificed first both times.

Doubtless, the scoreline exacerbated the reaction — Newcastle were trailing in both games — but fans knew Tonali had started four successive matches for Italy across September and October, playing at least 80 minutes in all of them and completing three.

For Newcastle, meanwhile, he had not played a full 90 this season — the longest he had lasted was 77 minutes against Manchester City in late September — and bemusement grew as to why the 24-year-old was deemed ready to complete international fixtures but was getting hooked in Premier League ones.

Some fans were exasperated by the removal of Tonali around the hour mark for Newcastle. To them, it seemed predetermined, regardless of how well he was playing or the match situation.

These mini-protests came at a delicate moment in Newcastle’s campaign, too, given they were winless in five league matches and had slipped to 12th. Disquiet over Howe was growing on social media, even if the majority of supporters remained behind him. How the head coach responded felt significant and potentially even season-defining.

Would Howe’s team selection and tactics be influenced by public sentiment? Would he continue to start Tonali and be cowed into leaving him on for longer? And, if he decided that Guimaraes and Tonali could no longer start matches together for now, would he really drop his captain to accommodate the Italian?

Howe certainly could not feign ignorance about the issue, because he was asked about the heckling. Twice.

“I love the fact supporters regard Sandro in the highest esteem as I do,” Howe said of the booing, ahead of the Carabao Cup last-16 tie against Chelsea last month. “The only thing I would ask is that any frustrations towards me or any decisions are reflected after the game, not in the moment.”

For the most important match of Newcastle’s season to date, that meeting with Chelsea in the Carabao Cup — a competition which offers a realistic route to silverware — Howe’s response in selection was as intriguing as it was bold.

Guimaraes, the skipper, was dropped, Tonali was shifted from right-sided No 8 to play at the centre of the midfield three and Joelinton’s left-side relationship with Willock was restored. Newcastle delivered their best all-round first-half display of the campaign to that point and Tonali, who had flitted in and out of matches as a No 8, was focal as the No 6. Even when Guimaraes came on after 63 minutes, it was the Brazilian who played on the left.

Yet, if anyone thought Howe had acquiesced to the demands of some supporters, against Arsenal three days later he restored Guimaraes to the XI in place of Tonali. On the back of his best performance since returning from his ban in late August, Tonali was demoted — which, given the recent boos, felt even more ballsy than Howe’s relegation of his captain in midweek.

Cue successive victories over Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, during which Tonali provided important cameos as a substitute, mainly in a No 6 role, with Guimaraes shifting left. Tonali even laid on Harvey Barnes’ winner in the latter match, having also had a hand in Joelinton’s goal. Like Barnes, Tonali has arguably provided more game-defining moments off the bench this season than as a starter.

And while the nine top-flight matches the pair have started together since the beginning of last season is hardly a vast dataset, the early evidence suggests Newcastle do not operate as effectively with Guimaraes and Tonali. Their only victory together came against Aston Villa on the opening day of last season, when Tonali scored on his debut.

As the table below shows, Newcastle win significantly less often, pick up fewer points and score less goals per game when the pair both start.

The alternative is true when Longstaff starts. Since Howe took charge, Newcastle’s win percentage has been 54.9 per cent when Longstaff has been in the XI and drops to 37.2 per cent when he is not. This season, they have won five and drawn one of the six league games Longstaff has started, and failed to win any of the five he has not.

What’s more, when Longstaff, Willock, Joelinton and Guimaraes are in the same XI, Newcastle are unbeaten in 14 matches since February 2022, winning 11 and drawing three (shown below).

Evidently, finding the best blend of personnel, rather than merely starting the “best” technical players together, is critical to the balance of this Newcastle side.

Individually, Tonali and Guimaraes both appear most comfortable — and have been most influential — starting as the No 6. They have shown they can dovetail effectively in the final quarter of matches, with Tonali deeper and Guimaraes to his left, but when they are both in the initial XI they have not been able to dominate midfield together.

That does not mean that they are incompatible and, in the medium-to-long run, Howe intends to find a way to accommodate both. Quite frankly, it feels unsustainable for Newcastle’s second-most-expensive signing ever — at £55million ($68.9m at present exchange rates) — to remain a supersub for a prolonged period, and he has far too much quality for that to be the case.

But, for now, for the betterment of the team, it really does feel like it has to be Guimaraes or Tonali, not Guimaraes and Tonali. And, given he is the captain and fulcrum, it is more often than not going to be Guimaraes, not Tonali.

Less than a month ago, Tonali being withdrawn early was the focal point for supporter dissent against Howe. At home against West Ham tonight (Monday), there is likely to be almost universal acceptance if he begins the match among the replacements. It is a quite fascinating change of dynamic.

(Top photo: George Wood via Getty Images)