NFL best bets Week 3: Fading Malik Willis again, believing in the Patriots and more

You have my attention, New Orleans. The Saints absolutely smoked the Dallas Cowboys in just about every facet of the game of football on Sunday. On the other end of that, the Houston Texans made the Chicago Bears offensive line look like they’ve never seen a stunt before and we still couldn’t get to the window. Dang fumbles at the goal line.

Oh well, last week wasn’t what we wanted, but it’s been a wild two weeks of the NFL. About 75 percent of survivor pools are out and the fact that we have broken even through two weeks despite a couple of breaks against us isn’t so bad.

Last week’s record: 2-5, -3.55 units
Season record: 5-5-2, -0.40 units, -3% ROI

We kick this week off with a four-play card involving some ugly teams. But hey, I think there is an argument that almost two-thirds of the NFL is ugly right now, maybe even higher. Follow me on X/Twitter (@amock419) for any updates to the card throughout the week.

Best bets for NFL Week 3

New England Patriots +6.5 (-110) at New York Jets

I know there are some trends out there about how rookie head coaches perform on Thursday Night Football, but I think they’re baloney. I was high on this Patriots team coming into the season and Jerod Mayo has these guys flying around. The offense is limited, but the defense seems pretty good. As for the Jets, the defensive line looks a lot worse than last season. Jermaine Johnson is done for the year with an Achilles injury and the Haason Reddick trade has resulted in no snaps so far. Will they be able to dominate a weaker Patriots’ offensive line? I’m not so sure.

Worst line to bet: Patriots +6.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans -3 (-110) vs. Green Bay Packers

I got burned going against Malik Willis last week and I’m willing to get burned again. But let’s take a deeper dive into Green Bay’s performance last week. In the first half against a (dreadful) Colts run defense, the Packers offense had a rushing success rate of 42.4 percent, which is right about league average. In the second half, they had a rushing success rate of 5.6 percent. The Titans have a much better front seven and should be able to keep the rushing attack in check for the whole game, which will force Willis to throw and, well, that’s not likely to end well. Let’s just not have a horrendous turnover this week, Will Levis.

Worst line to bet: Titans -3 (-115)

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders over 40.5 (-115)

Andy Dalton is a pretty big upgrade over Bryce Young at this point. The Panthers have an improved offensive line and wide receivers, Dalton should be able to move the ball with this group. The Panthers defense, however, is still pretty bad. Gardner Minshew — or anyone — should be able to move the ball against this Panthers unit. It’s scary, I know, but the Panthers having the ability to use the forward pass to their advantage could make them into an over team in the short-term.

Worst line to bet: Over 41 (-110)

Washington Commanders +7.5 (-110) at Cincinnati Bengals

I just want to start this off by saying I think the Bengals could absolutely torch the Commanders defense. But I also think that Jayden Daniels could have success against an overrated Bengals’ defense (in my own opinion as well as my model’s). Daniels’ legs are a weapon that will keep drives alive and allow them to put up points to stay within the number in this game.