Ohio State coach Ryan Day was looking to send a message in the final minutes against Indiana. Penn State’s aggressive fourth-quarter gamble at Minnesota likely clinched a College Football Playoff first-round game in State College. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti scoffed when asked if the Hoosiers were still Playoff-worthy. Oregon sat at home unscathed as the college football world burned around it.
After an eventful Saturday, the Big Ten has an established pecking order within its quartet of conference front-runners with one week remaining. Should the No. 2 Buckeyes (10-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten) beat Michigan for the first time since 2019, they will face top-ranked Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) in the Big Ten championship game. The winner should earn the No. 1 overall seed and compete in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The loser will likely receive the No. 5 seed and host the No. 12 seed on Dec. 20 or 21.
No. 4 Penn State (10-1, 7-1) just needs to beat Maryland on Saturday, and it will be all but assured a home game. Indiana (10-1, 7-1) entered the weekend ranked No. 5 but will drop in Tuesday’s Top 25 after its loss. The Hoosiers may straddle the home-road border for first-round participants all the way up until the unveiling of the bracket on Dec. 8.
Any chaos on the final weekend of the regular season would change the scenarios a bit. If Michigan upsets Ohio State and Penn State wins, then the Nittany Lions will head to Indianapolis to meet the Ducks. If Ohio State and Penn State lose, then Indiana can play for a conference title 45 miles north of campus with a victory that night against last-place Purdue. As for the Playoff, Ohio State likely would still host a game with a loss, while Penn State might not. Indiana could drop out of the Playoff altogether if it can’t beat the rival Boilermakers, who are winless against FBS teams.
As for the rest of the league, there are eight other teams that have clinched bowl berths and two more have a chance this weekend. The Big Ten’s bowl alignment includes seven bowls, while Washington and USC will participate in the Pac-12’s legacy bowl lineup this year and in 2025.
Let’s look at the Big Ten’s bowl layout beyond the CFP.
Citrus Bowl
Particulars: Orlando, Fla., Dec. 31, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
Opponent: The first pick of SEC teams after College Football Playoff selections. Potential candidates include South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri and Ole Miss. Tennessee played in Orlando last year, and LSU was there two years ago. Georgia and Texas are strong CFP possibilities.
Breakdown: Barring an Indiana loss to Purdue that drops the Hoosiers out of the CFP, Illinois seems to have this spot locked up. The Illini (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten) are a game up on Iowa (7-4, 5-3), but the Hawkeyes have played in two of the last three Citrus Bowls and will not return. Illinois last played in the Citrus Bowl following the 1989 season.
ReliaQuest Bowl
Particulars: Tampa, Fla., Dec. 31, noon ET (ESPN)
Opponent: A pool of SEC teams ranging from second to seventh outside the CFP. Potential candidates include Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee and Ole Miss. LSU played in Tampa last year and is unlikely to return.
Breakdown: With Nebraska (6-5, 3-5) becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2016, any bowl would love to have the Huskers drawing swarms of fans to town. Iowa hasn’t appeared in Tampa since 2018 and enjoys a mutually beneficial relationship with that bowl. Should the Big Ten land four teams in the College Football Playoff, it appears the winner of Iowa and Nebraska’s Black Friday matchup at Kinnick Stadium would determine the Big Ten’s participant. Even if Indiana falls out of the CFP and Iowa beats Nebraska, it’s still a strong possibility the bowl will select the Hawkeyes over Illinois, which appeared in Tampa two years ago.
Music City Bowl
Particulars: Nashville, Tenn., Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Opponent: A pool of SEC teams ranging from second to seventh outside the CFP. Potential candidates include Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and South Carolina.
Breakdown: Several Big Ten teams are contending for this bowl spot, and the one who wouldn’t be considered (Maryland) isn’t eligible anyway. If Illinois and Iowa are off the board, then this is a prime spot for Nebraska. If the Huskers beat Iowa and head to Tampa, then the Hawkeyes are a possibility despite playing in Nashville two years ago. Other potential candidates include Michigan (6-5, 4-4) and Minnesota (6-5, 4-4).
Pinstripe Bowl
Particulars: Bronx, N.Y., Dec. 28, noon ET (ABC)
Opponent: A pool of teams in the ACC’s second tier ranging from fourth to sixth outside the CFP. Potential candidates include Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Boston College.
Breakdown: Presuming Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska are off the board, this would be a prime location for Michigan. The Wolverines have never competed in the Pinstripe Bowl, and it’s likely the bowl won’t have many opportunities to invite them, either. With thousands of alums in the tri-State area, the Wolverines check a lot of boxes. After playing at Yankee Stadium last year, Rutgers is out of the running; Minnesota was there two years ago. Plus, Michigan beat Minnesota head-to-head.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Particulars: Charlotte, N.C., Jan. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opponent: A pool of teams in the ACC’s second tier ranging from fourth to sixth outside the CFP. Potential candidates include Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech and the Virginia/Virginia Tech winner.
Breakdown: Based on the above layout, Minnesota (6-5, 4-4) and Rutgers (6-5, 3-5) have slipped into this location. They could be joined by Wisconsin (5-6, 3-5) and Michigan State (5-6, 3-5), should they beat the Gophers and Scarlet Knights, respectively. All four could be 6-6 by Saturday night.
Rate Bowl
Particulars: Phoenix, Ariz., Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opponent: The Big 12’s No. 5 team after the CFP. Possible candidates include TCU, Baylor, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
Breakdown: No Big Ten restrictions here after the league did not send a team last year. Wisconsin appeared in 2022, however, and Minnesota was there in 2021. As it stands now, whichever team is available between Rutgers or Minnesota would be the choice. If the Badgers or Spartans become bowl eligible, they would enter the discussion.
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Particulars: Detroit, Dec. 26, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opponent: MAC
Breakdown: If there are any Big Ten teams available, one heads here. The most likely possibilities are Rutgers, Wisconsin or Michigan State.
Former Pac-12 possibilities
Three former Pac-12 teams have qualified for the postseason and will contend with their former colleagues in the Pac-12 legacy bowl lineup. Oregon is in line to qualify for the CFP even if it loses to Washington (6-5, 4-4) on Saturday and in the Big Ten championship game.
Washington and USC (6-5, 4-5) join Arizona State (9-2), Colorado (8-3), Washington State (8-3), California (6-5) and possibly Oregon State (5-6) for the Pac-12 bowl slots. Arizona State and Colorado are among four co-leaders vying for the Big 12 championship and a CFP bid. The Buffaloes, Sun Devils and Cougars are competitive for at least the top two bowl slots (Alamo vs. Big 12; Vegas vs. SEC). The other bowls, in order, are the Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence.
The Pac-12 legacy bowls are not beholden to select teams within one game of each other, so USC could jump Washington State for the Vegas Bowl, for instance, despite a multi-win difference in the teams’ records. The Trojans competed in the Holiday Bowl last year, so that’s notable. Washington was in the national championship game, so it will have no restrictions.
(Photo: Steven Branscombe / Getty Images)
