Why the Chiefs might have reason to worry, and why the Bills' bye felt like a win

(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 25, 2024.)

3. The Kansas City Chiefs won Sunday, but it felt like they lost. The Buffalo Bills did not play, but it felt like they won. Here’s why the Chiefs should be worried.

Bills coach Sean McDermott holds the NFL’s best regular-season record among head coaches (14-2) since an investigative report published Dec. 7, 2023 painted McDermott as an obstacle the organization had to overcome in order to win.

The three-part series by NFL writer Tyler Dunne for his “Go Long” website featured devastating testimonials from anonymous McDermott associates.

“This job’s too hard to fight from within and that’s what you do there,” one of the sources said. “You’ve got to overcome the head coach.”

McDermott’s intensity and its potential negative effects were something I’d explored earlier last season when suggesting the team needed its coach to find a new gear. The criticisms aligned with the Bills’ late-game struggles in pressure situations, but if we’re going to question McDermott when it appears his team might be on the verge of crumbling, we should appreciate the successes when things appear to be operating smoothly.

Head coach records since Week 14, 2023

Rank	Coach	Win %
1	Sean McDermott (14-2)	.875
2	Andy Reid (13-3)	.813
2	Dan Campbell (13-3)	.813
4	Mike Tomlin (11-4)	.733
5	Jim Harbaugh (7-3)	.700
6	John Harbaugh (11-5)	.688
6	Matt LaFleur (11-5)	.688
8	Kevin O’Connell (10-6)	.625
8	Nick Sirianni (10-6)	.625
10	Pete Carroll (3-2)	.600
11	DeMeco Ryans (10-7)	.588
12	Dan Quinn (7-5)	.583
13	Sean McVay (9-7)	.563
13	Todd Bowles (9-7)	.563
15	Raheem Morris (6-5)	.545
15	Mike Macdonald (6-5)	.545
17	Sean Payton (9-8)	.529
18	Kyle Shanahan (8-8)	.500
18	Robert Saleh (5-5)	.500
20	Jonathan Gannon (7-8)	.467
21	Matt Eberflus (7-9)	.438
21	Kevin Stefanski (7-9)	.438
21	Zac Taylor (7-9)	.438
21	Mike McCarthy (7-9)	.438
21	Mike McDaniel (7-9)	.438
26	Dennis Allen (6-8)	.429
27	Shane Steichen (7-10)	.412
28	Mike Vrabel (2-3)	.400
29	Antonio Pierce (5-11)	.313
30	Dave Canales (3-8)	.273
30	Brian Callahan (3-8)	.273
32	Jerod Mayo (3-9)	.250
32	Brian Daboll (4-12)	.250
32	Bill Belichick (1-3)	.250
35	Arthur Smith (1-4)	.200
36	Doug Pederson (3-13)	.188
37	Ron Rivera (0-4)	.000

Could this season be going much better for the Bills? They are 9-2 and riding a six-game winning streak after handling the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. They’ll come out of their bye with a home game against the depleted 5-6 San Francisco 49ers.

Drama? There seems to be none in Buffalo.

“The coach and GM (Brandon Beane) had the foresight to get rid of the receiver (Stefon Diggs) because they knew it was detrimental to the quarterback and the atmosphere,” a coach from another team said. “All of sudden, they are playing with Curtis Samuel and draft picks and just whatever, and the quarterback is playing good. And then they add Amari Cooper.”

Any Bills fan watching the Chiefs struggle to a 30-27 victory over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday has to like Buffalo’s prospects in a potential playoff rematch.

Against Carolina, Kansas City suffered its 10th-worst defensive EPA performance (-13.2) in 72 regular-season and playoff games since 2021, per TruMedia. The chart below identifies the Carolina game with a yellow dot. The Bills’ offense is responsible for five of the Chiefs’ 18 worst defensive EPA games since 2021. Those games appear via blue dots.

Buffalo’s offense has averaged 11.3 EPA per game in the six most recent matchups, including playoffs, with Kansas City dating to 2021. Only 12 teams since 2000 have averaged 11.3 or better over a full season. The Bills’ offense has performed better across these six games against Kansas City than it has performed, on average, against the NFL’s other 31 defenses over the same period.

The production has remained steady across three Bills offensive coordinators even as the Chiefs’ defense has improved.

We do not yet know whether the Bills and Chiefs will meet again in the playoffs. If they do, the focus should be on what the Chiefs’ defense can do to stop Buffalo from producing even better against Kansas City than it produces against the other 30 teams. That seemed especially true Sunday after the Panthers nearly outscored Kansas City.

“I don’t see how Buffalo melts down unless they have a ton of injuries,” an exec said. “I’m not sure what the catalyst has been, except that maybe they have been off everybody’s radar long enough, and the offseason did not target them as much, and they are clearly operating better in those conditions than having the spotlight on them.”

(Photo of Josh Allen, left, and Patrick Mahomes: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)