Last week’s article started off with the words “Always play until the final whistle.” And, well, that rings true again this week, but in the wrong direction.
We celebrated Pitt’s comeback win against Cincinnati two weeks ago and this week we have to live with TCU blowing a 28-7 lead at home. That’s how it works when betting on college football. No lead or bet is ever safe.
Last week’s record: 5-6, -1.60 units
Season record: 11-16, -5.29 units, -17.3% ROI
Hopefully we can get back on track this week. It’s been a rough go early in the season but that’s part of the game. You’ll have your ups and downs — more downs for me right now — but you keep chugging along and continue on with the process. Positive vibes only!
As for this week, we have seven bets to kick us off. As always, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the board to see if any other plays come into range. Follow me on X (@amock19) or check back in on the article for any updates that come later in the week. Best of luck!
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Best bets for college football Week 4
Boston College -6.5 (-110) vs. Michigan State
Bill O’Brien has turned Boston College around pretty quickly to start the season and I think the Eagles are a good bet against a banged-up Michigan State team. I like the overall direction of Michigan State for the future, but with injuries mounting, I’m not sure there is quite enough talent to keep this one close on the road.
- Worst line to bet: Boston College -6.5 (-110)
Kansas State -7 (-110) at BYU
This was -6.5 earlier in the week and moved to -7, but I’m not afraid to lay a full touchdown. My number is in the double digits as I’m still high on Kansas State and low on BYU. The Cougars are holding their hat on a victory over an SMU team that I think is pretty overrated early in the season. I’m not sure they’re able to keep pace with Kansas State here and the Wildcats win by two scores.
- Worst line to bet: Kansas State -7 (-110)
Arizona State +3 (-110) at Texas Tech
I’m not a believer in this Texas Tech squad right now. Sure, they looked great last week, but Arizona State is a much tougher task than North Texas. Arizona State is off a big win on the road at Texas State and on one extra day of rest. My model actually makes Arizona State slightly better than Texas Tech, so getting a field goal in this one is an easy bet.
- Worst line to bet: Arizona State +3 (-115)
Southern Mississippi at Jacksonville State under 60.5 (-110)
My number for this game is in the mid-50s. I’ll be honest, I’m a little nervous taking an under in a game involving Rich Rodriguez. Jacksonville State is currently the third-fastest paced team in the country according to TruMedia. That’s not going to scare me off of this play though. I project Jacksonville State to play fast and I still can’t get close to 60.
- Worst line to bet: Under 60 (-110)
Miami (Ohio) at Notre Dame under 44.5 (-110)
Notre Dame has Louisville on deck, so maybe the Irish will take their foot off the pedal early in this one. They should dominate Miami similarly to Purdue last week, but it’s hard for me to think they’re trying to run this one up with their season on the line next week. My projections have Miami as a bad rushing offense, and if the Redhawks are not able to get anything going on the ground, how can I expect them to put up a lot of points? This will come down to how much Notre Dame wants to score.
- Worst line to bet: Under 44.5 (-115)
Tulsa +3.5 (-115) at Louisiana Tech
If you’re looking at last week’s box score, you probably think that Louisiana Tech should run away with this after giving NC State a scare. Unfortunately, I think NC State isn’t a great football team at the moment and if we look back at Week 1, they barely got by Nicholls State. I think this is a good spot to sell high on Louisiana Tech. Tulsa doesn’t have much of a defense, but I think they’ll be able to hold up against a Louisiana Tech team that struggles on offense.
- Worst line to bet: Tulsa +3.5 (-115)
Purdue at Oregon State over 49.5 (-115)
Both of these teams play pretty slow, so that makes me a bit nervous, but again, I’m already projecting both teams to play slow, and my number is closer to the mid-50s. Both teams should have success running the ball, which may make this is an under play, but I think the rushing attacks should open up the passing game for both teams. This might be an ugly over, but I think we see this get into the 50s.
- Worst line to bet: Over 50 (-110)
(Photo of Thomas Castellanos: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)
