As the Boston Red Sox seek to upgrade their roster this offseason, there will undoubtedly be some tough decisions as they venture into the trade market.
The Red Sox are in an enviable spot compared to many teams with a slew of young, talented position players — in fact, too many to play at one time. Because of that gridlock, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has all but promised a trade this winter to alleviate the logjam in the outfield and among the middle infield talent at the upper levels of the farm system, all while balancing out a left-handed heavy group.
The Red Sox figure to be active on the free-agent market as well in pursuing starters, relievers and hitters, but there’s little doubt they’ll supplement their spending with at least one big trade of a young major leaguer.
A trio of names has already surfaced in trade discussions early in the offseason: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas.
Last week, we took a look at the trade candidacy of Abreu and explored the pros and cons of trading the young outfielder.
Here, we’ll look at Duran.
The 28-year-old is coming off the best season of his career and one of the best all-around seasons for any player in 2024. Duran finished eighth in American League MVP voting last week after hitting .285 with an .834 OPS along with 21 homers, 34 steals and a major-league-leading 48 doubles and 14 triples in 160 games.
The last player to lead the majors in both doubles and triples was Lou Brock in 1968. Duran joined Jacoby Ellsbury (2011) and Mookie Betts (2018) as the only Red Sox players to record 30 or more steals and record 80 or more extra-base hits in a season.
Meanwhile, Duran’s 8.7 bWAR ranked fifth in the majors behind Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Gunnar Henderson. For additional context only eight other Red Sox players have posted an 8.7 bWAR or better in a full season: Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Rico Petrocelli, Fred Lynn, Wade Boggs, and Mookie Betts.
On defense, Duran was a Gold Glove finalist in center field after ranking second in the majors with 23 defensive runs saved. He led all MLB outfielders in assists (12) and innings played (1,421 1/3).
He was named to his first All-Star team and won All-Star MVP honors for his game-deciding homer.
The list of accomplishments could go on, but it’s easy to forget just how good his season was, especially in the context of other players.
So it begs the question, would — or should — the Red Sox consider trading him?
Why the Red Sox should trade Duran
Duran’s value is high
All the numbers listed above show how good Duran is, meaning he’s also very valuable. Duran could certainly headline any package for a front-line starter and because of his value, it’s likely the Red Sox could include one or two prospects at the backend of their top 20 but avoid dealing any of their top four in Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel, Kristian Campbell or Marcelo Mayer. Trading Duran would be painful and a loss for the lineup, but if the Red Sox could acquire a No. 1 starter, it might be worth it.
Duran might regress
Duran’s 2024 season was so good, it’s going to be hard to replicate. Yes, he had similar numbers in 2023, hitting .295 with an .828 OPS in 102 games before season-ending toe surgery, but speed and aggressiveness are his top tools and, at 28, those attributes are bound to regress sooner than later.
Clears room in the outfield
With Ceddanne Rafaela, Abreu, Campbell and Anthony in the outfield mix, not to mention Jhostynxon Garcia, who was recently added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, the outfield is crowded and also features veteran backup Rob Refsnyder. Trading Duran allows Rafaela to take over in center with an opening for Anthony in left, Abreu to stay in right and Campbell to settle in at second base.
Duran has fewer years of control remaining compared to other trade pieces
Duran hits free agency after the 2028 season and is older than the other players in this logjam. This offseason marks Duran’s first year of arbitration eligibility and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $4.9 million, still a bargain, but his salary is going to increase as he approaches free agency.
While Rafaela is set to make $1.25 million next season as part of his contract extension signed last year, Abreu, Casas and the prospects (when they debut) would all make roughly the major-league minimum of $760,000. They’re all under control for the next five or six seasons.
Potential character issues
After Duran directed a homophobic slur at a fan this summer, the Red Sox were supportive of him both externally and internally for what they deemed as a mistake, helping him seek education and therapy to address it while also helping him find ongoing community work and not sweep the issue under the rug. Still, despite the Red Sox’s overall support, it would be naive to think this is a non-issue and that every person in the front office has moved on from the incident and won’t question his character because of how it reflects on the organization.
Why the Red Sox should not trade Duran
Duran is a spark plug for the offense
Duran’s aggressiveness served as a catalyst on several occasions throughout the season, sparking a style of play the Red Sox haven’t seen from their offense in years. His ability to turn singles into doubles and serve as a threat on the base paths routinely distracted pitchers and in turn, helped his teammates at the plate.
At least one Red Sox decision-maker wasn’t keen on trading Duran because of his ability at the plate and in the field, while noting his standing among his teammates.
Rafaela might not be a full-time center fielder
Rafaela shined defensively in center with 5 Outs Above Average at the spot and that was in a year when he played 631 innings in center, 647 innings at shortstop and 45 innings at second. But his struggles at the plate can’t be ignored.
It’s possible with more playing time, his swing decision and plate discipline will even out. Plenty of players struggle in their first couple of years in the league — look no further than Duran himself. While Rafaela might be a superior defender, Duran took a massive step forward defensively, ranking second in the majors with 23 DRS. Rafaela may project more as a super utility player and banking on him full time in center might not be the best option.
Duran is still affordable
As noted above, Duran is due for a raise in arbitration to roughly $5 million. Still, for an 8.7 bWAR player, $5 million is a bargain. His salary will continue to rise, of course, but in the immediate future for the value the Red Sox are getting from Duran, that’s a steal (no pun intended).
Duran’s MLB experience can be a guide for others
Nearly every young player experiences struggles in the majors. Duran’s struggles were quite public and painful in 2022. To his credit, he dug in and made adjustments to become one of the better players in the league. Not every player is capable of that kind of turnaround on the field.
Boston’s top prospect group will inevitability face adversity in the majors, whether it be adjusting to hitting lefties, handling the pressure in Boston or the overall grind of the big-league season. The Red Sox may feel the homophobic slur he uttered is an issue that’s in the past and perhaps something from which other players can learn. Duran is older, but experience matters in a market like Boston, particularly on a young team.
(Top photo: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
