College football bowl projections: How chaos impacts Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss

26 November 2024Last Update :
College football bowl projections: How chaos impacts Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss

With one more week of regular-season action, 77 teams have qualified for the postseason and two more are guaranteed with a pair of showdowns between 5-6 squads this weekend.

That leaves just three more bowl spots among 12 other teams. It could mark the first time in several years bowls won’t need to elevate the 5-7 team with the best Academic Progress Rate (APR) to fill out the field. Unfortunately, that means multiple eligible teams could get left out of the postseason.

The Big Ten’s lineup seems straightforward while the SEC’s pool of available teams deepened significantly with Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama. There are 13 SEC teams that have qualified for bowl games. Our projection of three SEC teams in the CFP bracket stretches teams outside of the SEC’s bowl contracts. The ACC will have at least 12 teams, perhaps 13, bowling. The Big 12 has nine bowl teams with two more vying for the postseason this weekend.

Implementing the current and former Pac-12 schools is a challenge for each of their contracted bowls and current conferences. Seven teams have qualified for the Pac-12 legacy bowls and one more (Oregon State) has a chance to join them this weekend. The Alamo selects first after the CFP and has no restrictions on win-loss differential. Then the order consists of Holiday, Vegas, Sun, LA Bowl and Independence.

Among the power-conference teams clinching postseason berths last weekend include Nebraska for the first time since 2016, Florida (which upset Ole Miss), West Virginia, and Oklahoma. We project the Sooners getting a date with Boston College in the Gasparilla Bowl, which will serve as a curtain raiser to a first-round College Football Playoff game on Dec. 20.

This week, the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner earns bowl eligibility, while power conference teams Michigan State, Wisconsin, Auburn, NC State, Kansas and Cincinnati seek their sixth win.

A friendly reminder: Most non-CFP bowls do not have to select teams in order of conference standings.

College Football Playoff
Bowl/Playoff Date Team Team Location Time (ET) Network
Playoff
Dec. 20
7. Notre Dame
10. Indiana
South Bend, Ind.
8 p.m.
ABC/ESPN
Playoff
Dec. 21
6. Penn State
11. SMU
State College, Pa.
Noon
TNT
Playoff
Dec. 21
5. Oregon
12 Boise State (G5 champ)
Eugene, Ore.
3:30 p.m.
TNT
Playoff
Dec. 21
8. Texas
9. Tennessee
Austin, Texas
8 p.m.
ABC/ESPN
Fiesta
Dec. 31
4. Arizona State (Big 12 champ)
Oregon-Boise St winer
Glendale, Ariz.
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Peach
Jan. 1
3. Miami (ACC champ)
Penn State-SMU winner
Atlanta
Noon
ESPN
Rose
Jan. 1
1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Texas-Tennessee winner
Pasadena, Calif.
5 p.m.
ESPN
Sugar
Jan. 1
2. Georgia (SEC champ)
Notre Dame/Indiana winner
New Orleans
8:45 p.m.
ESPN
Orange
Jan. 9
Quarterfinal winner
Quarterfinal winner
Miami, Fla.
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Cotton
Jan. 10
Quarterfinal winner
Quarterfinal winner
Arlington, Texas
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Championship
Jan. 20
Semifinal winner
Semifinal winner
Atlanta
7:30 p.m.
ESPN

Remaining bowls
Bowl Date Team Team Location Time (ET) Network
Bahamas
Jan. 4
Ohio (MAC)
Liberty (C-USA)
Nassau, Bahamas
11 a.m.
ESPN2
Duke's Mayo
Jan. 3
Minnesota (Big Ten 6)
Virginia Tech (ACC 5-7)
Charlotte, N.C.
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
First Responder
Jan. 3
Baylor (ESPN)
UTSA (ESPN)
University Park, Texas
4 p.m.
ESPN
Gator
Jan. 2
Duke (ACC 2-4)
Florida (SEC 3-8)
Jacksonville, Fla.
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Texas
Dec. 31
TCU (Big 12 4)
Missouri (SEC 3-8)
Houston
3:30 p.m.
ESPN
Citrus
Dec. 31
Illinois (Big Ten 2)
Alabama (SEC 2)
Orlando, Fla.
3 p.m.
ABC
Sun
Dec. 31
North Carolina (ACC 5-7)
USC (Pac-12 5)
El Paso, Texas
2 p.m.
CBS
ReliaQuest
Dec. 31
Iowa (Big Ten 3)
South Carolina (SEC 3-8)
Tampa, Fla.
Noon
ESPN
Music City
Dec. 30
Nebraska (Big Ten 4)
Ole Miss (SEC 3-8)
Nashville, Tenn.
2:30 p.m.
ABC
Independence
Dec. 28
Army (AAC)
Kansas* (Pac-12 7)
Shreveport, La.
9:15 p.m.
ESPN
Alamo
Dec. 28
BYU (Big 12 2)
Colorado (Pac-12 2)
San Antonio, Texas
9:15 p.m.
ABC
Military
Dec. 28
Navy (AAC 2)
Georgia Tech (ACC 8-10)
Annapolis, Md.
5:45 p.m.
ESPN
Arizona
Dec. 30
Colorado State (MWC)
Bowling Green (MAC)
Tucson, Ariz.
4:30 p.m.
CW
Pop-Tarts
Dec. 28
Iowa State (Big 12 3)
Clemson (ACC 2-4)
Orlando, Fla.
3:30 p.m.
ABC
New Mexico
Dec. 28
New Mexico (MWC)
Texas State (ESPN)
Albuquerque, N.M.
2:15 p.m.
ESPN
Pinstripe
Dec. 28
Michigan (Big Ten 5)
Louisville (ACC 5-7)
Bronx, N.Y.
Noon
ABC
Fenway
Dec. 28
Pittsburgh (ACC 8-10)
Memphis (AAC)
Boston
11 a.m.
ESPN
Vegas
Dec. 27
Washington (Pac-12 4)
Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)
Las Vegas, Nev.
10:30 p.m.
ESPN
Holiday
Dec. 27
Syracuse (ACC 2-4)
Washington State (Pac-12 3)
San Diego, Calif.
8 p.m.
FOX
Liberty
Dec. 27
Kansas State (Big 12 5)
LSU (SEC 3-8)
Memphis, Tenn.
7 p.m.
ESPN
Birmingham
Dec. 27
Vanderbilt (SEC 9)
Tulane (ESPN)
Birmingham, Ala.
12/3:30 p.m.
ESPN
Armed Forces
Dec. 27
West Virginia (Big 12 7)
Arkansas (ESPN)
Fort Worth, Texas
12/3:30 p.m.
ESPN
68 Ventures
Dec. 26
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Western Kentucky (C-USA)
Mobile, Ala.
9 p.m.
ESPN
Rate
Dec. 26
Michigan State (Big Ten 7)
Texas Tech (Big 12 6)
Phoenix, Ariz.
5:45 p.m.
ESPN
GameAbove
Dec. 26
Rutgers (Big Ten 8)
Miami of Ohio (MAC)
Detroit
2 p.m.
ESPN
Hawaii
Dec. 24
Fresno State (MWC)
Jacksonville State (C-USA)
Honolulu, Hawaii
8 p.m.
ESPN
Idaho Potato
Dec. 23
San Jose State (MWC)
Buffalo (MAC)
Boise, Idaho
2:30 p.m.
ESPN
Myrtle Beach
Dec. 23
James Madison (ESPN)
East Carolina (ESPN)
Myrtle Beach, S.C.
11 a.m.
ESPN
Gasparilla
Dec. 20
Boston College (ACC 8-10)
Oklahoma (ESPN)
Tampa, Fla.
3:30 p.m.
ESPN
Cure
Dec. 20
USF (ESPN)
Marshall (ESPN)
Orlando, Fla.
Noon
ESPN
New Orleans
Dec. 19
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Sam Houston (C-USA)
New Orleans
7 p.m.
ESPN2
LA Bowl
Dec. 18
California (Pac-12 6)
UNLV (MWC 1)
Inglewood, Calif.
9 p.m.
ABC
Boca Raton
Dec. 18
UConn (ESPN)
Northern Illinois (ESPN)
Boca Raton, Fla.
5:30 p.m.
ESPN
Frisco
Dec. 17
Arkansas State (ESPN)
North Texas (ESPN)
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m.
ESPN
Camellia
Dec. 14
South Alabama (ESPN)
Toledo (ESPN)
Montgomery, Ala.
9 p.m.
ESPN

Notes: (ESPN) indicates an ESPN Events bowl. Teams can be moved between them. An * indicates a replacement team because a league was not able to fill all of its slots.

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic, Photos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)