Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Week 12 had a ton of byes, so the column is shorter than usual. You need to be thinking ahead to your Week 14 byes — Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders.
The Saquon Barkley managers want me to say something (Sunday night is not covered in my Sunday takeaways column). He’s been a god. If it wasn’t for the tush push, Barkley would be having a top five RB season in fantasy history. He was No. 1 in this week’s market report with a 44% share on his 30 touches (for over 300 yards).
Nick Chubb converted goal-line chances. The efficiency wasn’t there and the Browns schedule is brutal, but No. 6 is No. 6.
Rico Dowdle is over 70% rostered now and was No. 7 in the model, though it would be nice if he could finally find the end zone on the ground. Still, he’s a low-end RB2.
Bucky Irving was nearly 30% and Rachaad White wasn’t far behind. The Bucs ran their offense through their RBs, though that was probably matchup driven. Irving is a very good, maybe great, player and an elite runner. He doesn’t have the goal line role, and splits the rest of the work, but he’s very tough to leave on the bench in shallower leagues. That said, he’s not a real RB1, despite his top skill.
Ameer Abdullah is worth a pickup this week if you are in a pinch. He’s probably the top waiver add among RBs less than 25% rostered. We don’t know Alexander Mattison’s status but, since he was doubtful in Week 12, he’s probably out in Week 13. The QB change is not going to help him, but the game script provides a good floor and probably roughly five catches for 35 yards against the Chiefs, which is a nice jumping off point in PPR.
If J.K. Dobbins is out with his balky knee, Gus Edwards probably elevates to a more prominent role. He’ll definitely be the goal-line back. I’d prefer Abdullah in PPR, assuming the injuries break the right way for both.
Jaylen Warren is someone we don’t typically want to start but he finished 22nd. The Steelers are now an extreme run-dominant team.
Receiver Targets
The biggest news in the rankings is David Moore — rostered in less than 1% of leagues — at No. 8. He had 10 targets — that’s typically an automatic pickup for me. He’s had at least 82% snaps the past four games and hit a season high against the Chiefs. He has the Bucs this week and once more in our playoffs.
TE Trey McBride, touchdown-less still, was No. 1 in the report at 40.5%.
Do we trust CeeDee Lamb on Thanksgiving? He was No. 2. Cooper Rush looked competent. The problem is he was drafted to be your best receiver, but now you’d take 15 points, with 30 seeming almost out of the question.
Zay Flowers is in such a depressed passing offense that he’s almost certain to underperform his market share, especially given his TD woes. But you have to play him in Flex10 formats (three WRs and a flex).
Malik Nabers was No. 10 in the report. I don’t understand what he’s complaining about. The QBs stink — that’s the problem, not play-calling.
Jonnu Smith is a stud now. I can’t believe I’m typing that. He’s the No. 1 option in the Miami passing game and teams aren’t going to care about him enough to try to stop him. It’s perfect.
Noah Brown is widely available if you’re looking ahead to Week 14. He was No. 13 and easily out-targeted Terry McLaurin. Again, if you get 10 targets, I’m automatically adding you off of waivers.
Sterling Shepard was 24th in the model but did nothing. Still, Mike Evans was back and he was 23.3%. I hate discounting market share, but I’m doing it in this case, though Shepard’s ranking is noted for you to decide.
I’m more bullish on Joshua Palmer, who had more snaps than Quentin Johnston. Plus, Johnston had a bad day, dropping an almost certain TD that would have tied the game in the fourth quarter. Palmer was 30th in the ranks, and was open, and missed, for a long play — maybe a TD. He could see increased overall passing volume if Dobbins is hurt.
Devaughn Vele was 21.4%, about where Palmer ranked. He was also very effective for the Broncos, who should be expected to junk their woeful running game.
Cole Kmet is an every-format TE starter now. Book him for 5-to-7 catches again in Week 13.
(Top photo of Jonnu Smith: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
