What's Edmonton Oilers winger Vasily Podkolzin's ceiling?

Edmonton Oilers general manager Stan Bowman made a pair of late summer trades that appear to be working early in the 2024-25 season.

In acquiring forward Vasily Podkolzin and defenceman Ty Emberson, Bowman needed a quick fix after losing Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to the St. Louis Blues via dual offer sheets.

In acquiring college defenceman Paul Fischer as an addendum to the Blues’ offer sheets, Bowman’s early trade record shows promise, with the understanding there are miles to go before anyone can make a call on any of the new players.

The key acquisition so far is Podkolzin. Thrust into a feature role due to injuries and the struggles of others, the robust winger is finding a way to be useful with Leon Draisaitl as his most common centre.

When Bowman acquired Podkolzin, he was thought to be a bottom-six forward and a suitable replacement for the exiting Holloway.

So far, he’s been asked to do more than expected and has performed well.

All numbers five-on-five

There are several “wow” numbers in this graph, led by total minutes with Draisaitl and Connor McDavid (nine of the minutes above were spent with all three men on the ice). He’s eating a veteran’s lunch and in this case, Jeff Skinner (fewer than 100 minutes total with the two impact centres at five-on-five) has been passed by the young winger.

What does that mean? Podkolzin is taking advantage of an opportunity, while Skinner may be in some trouble as a roster player on this edition of the Oilers. When Evander Kane returns from injury, or possibly before, this may become a pressure point.

When he arrived, the worry about Podkolzin was offence. No one doubted he could play a rambunctious style and his two-way play is rock solid for a young winger. However, to occupy a top-nine role on an NHL team, a player must deliver at least some offence.

How’s he doing compared to Holloway through 22 games in St. Louis?

It’s important to note that Holloway’s centre with the Blues, Brayden Schenn, is a veteran with a range of skills, but falls shy of Draisaitl as an offensive difference-maker. Podkolzin has the better spot in the lineup, and that has to be considered when viewing each winger’s contributions so far this year:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Podkolzin is getting a push on the Oilers’ skill lines and Holloway is playing a middle-six role. Both of these wingers have had some questions about offence and those questions are likely to remain if these numbers roll out over the entire season.

Based on the five-on-five scoring numbers and outscoring numbers, it’s safe to say Bowman’s bet on Podkolzin stands as a success through the quarter mark of the 2024-25 season.

What’s happening?

There’s a reality here, and Oilers fans have witnessed it time and again over the decades. In recent team history, Klim Kostin caught lightning in a bottle after coming over to Edmonton in an October 2022 trade with the Blues, scoring 11 times in 57 regular season games plus some playoff heroics.

In the end, management moved off him the following summer in an effort to lower cap issues.

The Podkolzin resume this fall isn’t the foundation Pat Maroon built after coming over from the Anaheim Ducks at the 2016 trade deadline. In 16 games before the end of the regular season, Maroon scored four goals and seven points in 134 minutes at five-on-five for 1.79 goals per 60 and 3.14 points per 60 in what was a classic example of robbing another man (Milan Lucic) of the best job available for NHL left wingers at the time (McDavid’s wingman).

At this moment, Podkolzin isn’t authoring that kind of story.

The first 22 games

Edmonton’s veteran skill wingers fell flat in the season’s first 22 games. It’s incredible to look at the scoring from famous players over the first 25 percent of the season.

The skill wingers on opening night were Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (two five-on-five goals so far) and Zach Hyman (also two goals) on the McDavid line; Skinner (three goals) and Viktor Arvidsson (two goals) on the Draisaitl line.

Draisaitl (eight goals) and McDavid (six) are delivering at five-on-five.

The opening-night wingers on the skill lines have a total of nine goals combined. The opening-night bottom six wingers? That group has scored eight goals.

Corey Perry has four goals to lead all Edmonton wingers, with Connor Brown (three), Podkolzin (one) and Mattias Janmark (zero) rounding out the group.

How high can he fly? 

Maroon made it look easy. Win board battles, play a rugged (at times ugly) game when required while also on a skill line and most importantly, go to the net with his stick on the ice.

He turned those things into a strong career, multiple Stanley Cup wins and legendary status across several NHL cities.

Podkolzin’s first goal on the Draisaitl line didn’t look like a typical Maroon goal, and his career through three North American pro seasons didn’t resemble Maroon’s early AHL days.

During his first three seasons in the Vancouver Canucks system, Podkolzin scored 22 goals in 70 AHL games (0.32 goals per game) and 18 goals in 137 NHL games (0.13 goals per game).

Maroon’s first three pro seasons were in the AHL, and he averaged 0.28 goals per game at that level. For his efforts, he was rewarded with two more AHL seasons, scored 32 and 26 goals in those years and began getting NHL time.

Maroon has played in almost 800 NHL games, an exceptional career considering how long it took him to get to the league. He was on a feature line for less than two seasons in Edmonton but took full advantage of every opportunity.

Podkolzin finds himself in a similar situation. Maroon’s hurdle was Lucic; Podkolzin’s is Skinner.

At some point, Kane will enter the picture. It’s unknown if Bowman will make a move before the deadline, but if the scoring problem on the wing isn’t solved by then, it’s certain we’ll see action.

In the meantime, Podkolzin has an enormous chance to make his mark, earn another contract and perhaps land in Oilers lore.

Bet on something more than Kostin and short of Maroon.

(Photo: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)