It’s the final week of college football’s regular season, which means rivalries are taking place all over the sport. We have projections for every game taking place this weekend.
My model likes Texas by 4.5 points at Texas A&M, Ohio State by 22 points against Michigan, Notre Dame by 6.5 points at USC, Clemson by 5.5 points against South Carolina and Tennessee by nine points at Vanderbilt among some of the more noteworthy rivalry games.
There’s also one game where my model has a different favorite than the sportsbooks. My model has Baylor by 2.5 points against Kansas even though the Jayhawks are favored by 1.5 points. Kansas is a trendy team after beating Iowa State, BYU and Colorado, but my model hasn’t gotten all the way on board with Kansas yet.
For context on these numbers, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 14 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my best bets for the week.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 14 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Memphis |
|
|
54
|
55.5
|
 Tulane |
-13
|
-14
|
|
|
 Miami (OH) |
|
|
43.5
|
39.5
|
 Bowling Green |
-6
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Ball State |
|
|
53
|
52.5
|
 Ohio |
-12.5
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Minnesota |
|
|
41.5
|
41.5
|
 Wisconsin |
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Oklahoma St. |
|
|
62
|
65.5
|
 Colorado |
-14
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Oregon St. |
|
|
59
|
56.5
|
 Boise State |
-23
|
-19.5
|
|
|
 Navy |
|
|
55.5
|
55.5
|
 East Carolina |
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Liberty |
|
|
52
|
47.5
|
 Sam Houston |
0
|
3
|
|
|
 Miss. State |
|
|
62
|
61.5
|
 Ole Miss |
-25.5
|
-26.5
|
|
|
 Texas State |
|
|
58.5
|
61.5
|
 South Alabama |
5
|
1
|
|
|
 Utah State |
|
|
60.5
|
58.5
|
 Colorado St. |
-7
|
-6
|
|
|
 Stanford |
|
|
53.5
|
55.5
|
 San José St. |
-4.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 Georgia Tech |
|
|
58.5
|
53.5
|
 Georgia |
-19
|
-19.5
|
|
|
 Nebraska |
|
|
45.5
|
39.5
|
 Iowa |
-6.5
|
-4
|
|
|
 Utah |
|
|
45.5
|
47.5
|
 UCF |
-13
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 Michigan |
|
|
40
|
43.5
|
 Ohio State |
-22
|
-21
|
|
|
 Tennessee |
|
|
49.5
|
48.5
|
 Vanderbilt |
9
|
11
|
|
|
 So. Carolina |
|
|
47.5
|
49.5
|
 Clemson |
-5.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 UTSA |
|
|
58
|
54.5
|
 Army |
-10
|
-7
|
|
|
 Illinois |
|
|
44
|
43.5
|
 Northwestern |
7
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Louisville |
|
|
51.5
|
49.5
|
 Kentucky |
5.5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Duke |
|
|
55.5
|
53.5
|
 Wake Forest |
3
|
4.5
|
|
|
 Kansas |
|
|
64
|
61.5
|
 Baylor |
-2.5
|
1.5
|
|
|
 West Virginia |
|
|
65
|
64.5
|
 Texas Tech |
-3
|
-3
|
|
|
 UConn |
|
|
49.5
|
49.5
|
 UMass |
8
|
10.5
|
|
|
 North Texas |
|
|
63.5
|
64.5
|
 Temple |
10
|
11
|
|
|
 Louisiana |
|
|
53.5
|
48.5
|
 La. Monroe |
9
|
9.5
|
|
|
 E. Michigan |
|
|
60.5
|
56.5
|
 W. Michigan |
-7.5
|
-7
|
|
|
 Middle Tenn. |
|
|
54
|
52.5
|
 FIU |
-10.5
|
-9
|
|
|
 Coastal Caro. |
|
|
52
|
55.5
|
 Georgia State |
1
|
-1
|
|
|
 Southern Miss |
|
|
51.5
|
48.5
|
 Troy |
-19.5
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 South Florida |
|
|
53.5
|
53.5
|
 Rice |
5.5
|
5
|
|
|
 Pitt |
|
|
52
|
49.5
|
 Boston Coll. |
-3
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Old Dominion |
|
|
55.5
|
58.5
|
 Arkansas St. |
3
|
4
|
|
|
 Maryland |
|
|
52.5
|
50.5
|
 Penn State |
-24
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Auburn |
|
|
51
|
52.5
|
 Alabama |
-15
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 Notre Dame |
|
|
53
|
51.5
|
 USC |
6.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Arkansas |
|
|
58
|
54.5
|
 Missouri |
-1
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Miami |
|
|
69.5
|
67.5
|
 Syracuse |
10.5
|
10.5
|
|
|
 Cal |
|
|
54.5
|
56.5
|
 SMU |
-10
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 Arizona State |
|
|
52.5
|
53.5
|
 Arizona |
7
|
9
|
|
|
 Rutgers |
|
|
45.5
|
47.5
|
 Michigan St. |
-2.5
|
-2
|
|
|
 Fresno State |
|
|
48
|
46.5
|
 UCLA |
-7.5
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 NC State |
|
|
51.5
|
55.5
|
 No. Carolina |
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 UAB |
|
|
59
|
60.5
|
 Charlotte |
-3
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 FAU |
|
|
58.5
|
56.5
|
 Tulsa |
3
|
1.5
|
|
|
 C. Michigan |
|
|
42
|
44.5
|
 No. Illinois |
-14
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 J’ville State |
|
|
63
|
60.5
|
 W. Kentucky |
0.5
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 Kennesaw St. |
|
|
40
|
42.5
|
 La. Tech |
-13.5
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 UTEP |
|
|
51
|
51.5
|
 New Mexico St. |
-1
|
-3
|
|
|
 TCU |
|
|
62.5
|
58.5
|
 Cincinnati |
2
|
3.5
|
|
|
 App. State |
|
|
62.5
|
62.5
|
 Georgia So. |
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Wyoming |
|
|
52.5
|
58.5
|
 Wash. State |
-21
|
-17
|
|
|
 Purdue |
|
|
53.5
|
56.5
|
 Indiana |
-25
|
-28.5
|
|
|
 Oklahoma |
|
|
44
|
46.5
|
 LSU |
-8
|
-6
|
|
|
 Florida |
|
|
45.5
|
45.5
|
 Florida State |
13
|
14.5
|
|
|
 Washington |
|
|
57.5
|
50.5
|
 Oregon |
-20.5
|
-18.5
|
|
|
 Texas |
|
|
50.5
|
49.5
|
 Texas A&M |
4.5
|
5.5
|
|
|
 Kansas State |
|
|
49
|
51.5
|
 Iowa State |
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Nevada |
|
|
55.5
|
55.5
|
 UNLV |
-20
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Virginia |
|
|
48
|
48.5
|
 Virginia Tech |
-8
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Marshall |
|
|
52
|
52.5
|
 James Madison |
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Houston |
|
|
42.5
|
41.5
|
 BYU |
-10
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 Air Force |
|
|
44
|
43.5
|
 San Diego St. |
3
|
3.5
|
|
|
 New Mexico |
|
|
63.5
|
61.5
|
 Hawai’i |
1.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Jayden Maiava and Woody Marks: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
