Welcome back for another week of fantasy football speculation. I use a patented, data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners … today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, with the goal of identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then, for all the last-minute managers on the go, I include a section at the bottom of the column — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals (courtesy of TruMedia). In searching for a fantasy quarterback, we need volume, of course, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before digging through our speculative QB bargain bin, please ensure Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye and Jameis Winston are no longer available.
OK, people, this is it. No time to rest on your laurels. At this stage, if you’re still looking for a quarterback but are still competitive in your league, you didn’t get here on meek decision-making. It’s all about aggression and proactively cashing in on plus matchups the rest of the way. And there is a decreased supply because so many managers are rostering two-plus QBs. So you either die the fantasy hero or live long enough to see yourself recommend Bryce Young (ducks). I know (ducks). I get it (ducks again). The former No. 1 overall pick just played his best game of the year against a pretty good Chiefs defense. Putting up multiple TDs against Steve Spagnuolo’s KC defense is significantly tougher on paper than against the Bucs, a bottom-five secondary across the board — only the Jags have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Young also faces an extremely generous Cowboys defense in Week 15 and the Bucs again in Week 17.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Roschon Johnson and Gus Edwards have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved successful by pivoting away from the lowest-hanging fruit — total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency in fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize him as a speculative add.
Available RBs w/+45.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Trey Benson, ARI — 65.8% Touch/Snap%
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 55.2% Touch/Snap%
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 49.0% Touch/Snap%
- Audric Estime, DEN — 43.7% Touch/Snap%
- Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 40.6% Touch/Snap%
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 38.9% Touch/Snap%
- Ray Davis, BUF — 37.8% Touch/Snap%
- Devin Singletary, NYG — 37.0% Touch/Snap%
Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Sean Tucker, TB — 0.89 FPS/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 0.66 FPS/Snap
- Emari Demercado, ARI — 0.65 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.57 FPS/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 0.56 FPS/Snap
- Samaje Perine, KC — 0.37 FPS/Snap
- Justice Hill, BAL — 0.36 FPS/Snap
If you need to plug a hole this weekend, head right down to the streaming service below. Even though all 32 teams play this weekend, keep in mind byes aren’t done yet — six teams are off in Week 14 (BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE and WAS). With so few grains left in the hourglass, pragmatism rules the days ahead, with our sole focus on the championship. It’s time to shed any dead weight and load up on handcuffs. Say goodbye to your second defenses and tight ends, even if it means bidding arrivederci to Sam LaPorta.
Combining skill set, contextual environment, schedule, and potential workload in case of injury, I ranked my favorite down-the-stretch RB stashes.
- Braelon Allen, NYJ (Update: Breece Hall missed practice Wednesday with a sore knee — Oh boy)
- Trey Benson, ARI
- Ray Davis, BUF
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- Jaylen Warren, PIT
- Emanuel Wilson, GB
- Blake Corum, LAR
- Zach Charbonnet, SEA
- Justice Hill, BAL
- Tyjae Spears, TEN
- Roschon Johnson, CHI
- Khalil Herbert, CIN
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN
- Tank Bigsby, JAX
Wide Receivers
Like free agent RBs, make sure this week’s top WR adds Noah Brown and Dontayvion Wicks already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above-average amount of looks while doing it.
Available WRs w/ +18 Routes Run Per Game, +13% Targets Per Route, +0.25 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- Elijah Moore, CLE — 35.0 Rte/Gm, 21.0% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 33.7 Rte/Gm, 12.9% TPRR, 0.29 FPS/Rte
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN — 33.3 Rte/Gm, 15.0% TPRR, 0.41 FPS/Rte
- Demarcus Robinson, LAR — 32.5 Rte/Gm, 16.2% TPRR, 0.34 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 30.3 Rte/Gm, 22.3% TPRR, 0.26 FPS/Rte
- David Moore, CAR — 29.3 Rte/Gm, 20.5% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Alec Pierce, IND — 27.8 Rte/Gm, 16.2% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
- Adam Thielen, CAR — 27.0 Rte/Gm, 14.8% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 26.0 Rte/Gm, 20.2% TPRR, 0.40 FPS/Rte
- Sterling Shepard, TB — 23.0 Rte/Gm, 21.7% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO — 20.3 Rte/Gm, 13.1% TPRR, 0.72 FPS/Rte
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN — 18.0 Rte/Gm, 20.8% TPRR, 0.35 FPS/Rte
Speculating on wideouts has at least given us a puncher’s chance this year. Last week’s pick hit again — Devaughn Vele posted a nice box score tally (6-80-0) and saved my bacon in a few spots (again). If I’m going down with the Panthers (see Bryce Young above), it’ll be swinging. Not to overstate how good Carolina looked at times on Sunday, but their upcoming matchup versus Tampa Bay is an order of magnitude softer than facing Kansas City. A small part of that bounce-back was veteran PPR scam artist Adam Thielen. Returning from injury, Thielen finished the game healthy, running the third-most WR routes behind Xavier Legette and David Moore. I saw a few talking heads talking about Moore’s big game (6-81-1) and whether or not he’s a featured piece going forward. Drilling down on the specific production last weekend, I’d say no. Moore did the majority of his damage (3-52-1) out of the slot, a role he split with Thielen in Week 13. Given the contracts, track record and continuity, I think Carolina goes back to Thielen as a full-time player and resident target hog with TD equity. Imagine if having the Panthers holds the key to winning fantasy leagues this year. What a world!
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Taysom Hill and Noah Gray aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism — which may be an exercise in futility. But there’s no retreat or surrender in these fantasy streets.
TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +8.0 Air Yards Per Target (Past 4 Games)
- Theo Johnson, NYG — 20.5% Team Tar, 8.0 AY/Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 12.4% Team Tar, 11.3 AY/Tar
- Josh Oliver, MIN — 10.6% Team Tar, 8.4 AY/Tar
- Juwan Johnson, NO — 10.4% Team Tar, 8.9 AY/Tar
- Foster Moreau, NO — 10.4% Team Tar, 15.8 AY/Tar
- Jordan Akins, CLE — 10.2% Team Tar, 7.9 AY/Tar
- Dawson Knox, BUF — 10.1% Team Tar, 9.5 AY/Tar
Week 13 Sunday Streaming Service
- QB — Bryce Young, CAR vs TB
- RB — Braelon Allen, NYJ vs SEA
- RB — Blake Corum, LAR at NO
- WR — Adam Thielen, CAR vs TB
- TE — Noah Gray, KC vs LV
- DST — Patriots vs Colts
(Top photo of Braelon Allen: Justin Ford / Getty Images)