Goaltending is one of the trickiest positions to project and understand. And it’s one that can carry a lot of weight depending on a league’s scoring settings.
I’m not here to just rank the best fantasy goalies heading into this year. With customizable league settings, I encourage you to check the cheat sheet to see who is best for you. Instead, I’m going to whip around the league to give you a vibe check on some of the big names around the league as you start building your teams.
Bona Fide Starters
The hockey world may be emphasizing shared workloads and two-goalie systems, but there are still true No. 1s around the league.
That list starts with Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck, the two most valuable goalies in the league.
Shesterkin rebounded from a rough stretch in January to finish the season as one of the best in the league. I’m not one to load up on goalies too early in the draft, but Shesterkin is always worth jumping at when the opportunity is there. There shouldn’t be any worry about last year’s blip, considering his NHL tenure as a whole, or even Jonathan Quick stealing starts — even with last year’s struggles, he still played 55 regular season games.
Hellebuyck is one of the best regular-season goalies in the league year after year. My only question is whether Hellebuyck is going to be rested more to keep him fresh for the postseason after struggling in that environment in years past. But with Kaapo Kahkonen behind him on the depth chart, I just expect more of the same in the usage department.
Behind that duo, there are a few great options to consider. Juuse Saros and Jake Oettinger are among them.
I was asked a lot about Saros last year because, as fine as he was, he wasn’t the difference. Maybe playing such a hefty workload in 2022-23 weighed on him, or the fact that he started the 2023 offseason injured. Either way, the Predators look like a stronger team heading into this year, which should help him out. Having Scott Wedgewood in the fold could set Saros up to play a little less. I expect him to remain a true No. 1, but maybe he won’t have to start 60 games.
Like Saros, Oettinger just wasn’t at his best last season. His increased workload was likely a big part of it, so it’s encouraging to see that the Stars are trying to manage that better this season. Having a full, healthy offseason to get set for the year should help him get back to his 2022-23 levels, too. The quality of the team in front of him is another major plus.
Speaking of healthy offseasons, that should be a big difference for Andrei Vasilevskiy heading into the year. Having back surgery cut down Vasilevskiy’s offseason prep last year and could be why he never fully hit his stride. Tampa Bay’s offseason additions should give him more defensive reinforcements to help him play his best hockey, too.
Up in Edmonton, there’s Stuart Skinner. It was a tale of two seasons for Skinner last year. The early goings were an outright disaster before he eventually finished the season in the Stanley Cup final.
I understand reservations around Skinner, who sometimes has too chaotic of an approach for comfort. And we don’t know how playing 59 regular season games plus another 23 in the playoffs will impact him this year. But he still may be worth investing in considering his improvements over the past year and the team in front of him.
Playing a heavy workload seemed to be what broke Jacob Markstrom in 2022-23, but he was back to his usual heights pre-deadline last season. Things only started to go south when the Flames started selling key players (and not their goalie).
Markstrom may be moving to a new environment in New Jersey, but that seems like a pretty ideal fit on paper. Maybe he doesn’t have to start more than 60 games next year with Jake Allen sharing the net, but he still should be closer to a No. 1 than a 1A.
Solid 1As
Below the tier of true starters, there are the 1As — thosewho play a slight majority of the games for their teams. A 1A can be an ideal pick for a manager who either 1.) does not want to prioritize goaltending as early in the draft, 2.) does not count wins or games played, or 3.) is in that deep of a league.
Two names stood out here when comparing the cheat sheet to other rankings, like Yahoo’s ADP and NHL.com’s. Joey Daccord and Connor Ingram both look pretty underrated in comparison and maybe it’s because neither one has that long of a track record. Daccord ran with opportunity in Seattle last year, so it should be his net to lose considering how inconsistent Philipp Grubauer has been.
With Ingram, the team in front of him could be giving some pause. Don’t forget, though, that Ingram ranked 13th in the league in goals saved above expected last year. And Arizona was competitive before the relocation drama started and overshadowed all of their progress. Ingram should have even more support after Utah made some big adds on defense.
Adin Hill and Joseph Woll are two more options likely available in mid-rounds. These two tend to put up good results behind talented teams. There are just some durability concerns for both, so make sure you have a reliable No. 2 to pair with these goalies, and injured reserve slots.
Charlie Lindgren stole the starter’s net in Washington with an excellent second half (he was an absolute gift for my team last season). I expect him to stay in that 1A usage range, with Logan Thompson pushing for playing time behind him.
Samuel Ersson also ended up taking over the starter’s net in Philadelphia. He went on a really solid run but didn’t seem ready for that kind of playing time and eventually burnt out. Now he has had an offseason to prepare for expanded usage, which could lead to longer-term success this year. Unlike some of the aforementioned goalies, he is a better fantasy No. 2 option behind a No. 1 with more certainty.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stepped up when the Sabres needed it last season. I’m just wondering how much, if at all, Devon Levi plays this upcoming season. If he can shake it at the NHL level, I won’t be surprised if the workload is more evenly split.
High-Volume Savers
Some leagues don’t count goals against average or wins but instead award points for saves. So a game’s results may not matter as long as a goalie is busy. Sometimes a high-volume saver is just handy to complement a safer pick.
In this case, someone like Linus Ullmark, who will get tested behind the Senators’ defense, could be extra valuable to certain managers. There may be some hesitation around Ullmark due to his environment. The Senators have crushed goalies before, and going from Boston to Ottawa is going to be a shock to the system. But Ullmark does have experience playing behind a poor defensive team in Buffalo.
Sam Montembeault also has experience behind a bad defensive team. His numbers as a whole last year may not be as flattering, but the stretch to focus on is post-deadline when Montreal ended their three-goalie system.
Jordan Binnington thrived despite his surroundings last year in St. Louis. The Blues should still have their defensive woes of last year, which will keep him busy. The problem is that he lacks year-to-year consistency.
Playing behind the Kings defense agreed with Cam Talbot last year, but I’m not so sure his game will hold up as well behind Detroit’s at this point. Another question is whether John Gibson can finally turn things around in Anaheim. The team is slowly but surely improving, which should help him maintain his level for longer before his workload overwhelms him.
Low Workload Goalies
For some managers, risk-free goalie numbers and wins are priority No. 1. And there are a handful of goalies who fit that profile.
Sergei Bobrovsky, fresh off a Stanley Cup win, is in an ideal spot. He plays behind a stout defense in Florida and has a ton of offensive support. Alexandar Georgiev generally doesn’t have to be impeccable in Colorado to win, he just has to come up with timely saves and average play.
The Kings don’t need a game-breaker in goal, either. They’re one of the more stingy teams in the league with their trap game. That should help Darcy Kuemper adjust to his new surroundings after being traded from Washington this summer.
The Bruins usually give their goalies two-way support, too. This year that looks a little different, with Jeremy Swayman taking over as the true No. 1. That increased workload could challenge him after rarely starting two consecutive regular season games in seasons past, but he looks up to the task and has a lot of help in front of the blue paint.
Wild Cards
While there are safe bets and more predictable goalies, there are also some wild cards who complicate things.
Thatcher Demko and Ilya Sorokin both find themselves in this category due to injury. The Demko saga has been nothing short of messy. After being sidelined last year for weeks, he returned for Game 1 of the playoffs… only for his season to end. While there was speculation about his readiness later in the postseason, he ultimately did not return to play. And now there are questions about his readiness for the upcoming regular season. If you have slots for injured players, it could be worth stashing him away, but make sure you are fully prepared to be without him for some time since there hasn’t been a ton of clarity on his status just yet.
With Sorokin, the Islanders announced that he should be ready for the regular season opener after having back surgery. But since we don’t know the severity of the injury or surgery, there aren’t a ton of details to work with. How much did this impact his offseason training? Will it slow him down, similar to Vasilevskiy last year? Will he be ready to back-up or start when the season starts, if at all? It’s tricky because I had him as a bounce-back candidate to earn the starting net back on Long Island. So my advice is similar to Demko here: draft and stash away on injured reserve if there aren’t any further updates on his status between now and your draft.
Filip Gustavsson and Pyotr Kochetkov are two more wild cards worth having on your radar. It’s not clear how much either of these goalies will play this upcoming season. Gustavsson may have to navigate a three-goalie system in Minnesota, which is an absolute killer for managers who need frequent starts. Kochetkov, on the other hand, could push for more playing time over Frederik Andersen, which could make him a sneaky-good pick a bit later in the draft.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Igor Shesterkin: Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)
