Predicting transfers at Wolverhampton Wanderers is a risky business.
If the past few windows have taught us anything, it is that what the head coach and even the sporting director may want, or what the paying supporters can clearly see is needed, does not always happen.
Recent transfer activity has come with repeated frustration and even occasional bizarre 180s (like signing a very talented Brazil international midfielder in the summer when strengthening that part of the squad had never been on the agenda).
But we can summarise what the transfer priorities are and look at what might happen in the next 12 months. So, here goes…
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What positions will they be looking at in 2025?
The immediate priority is to recruit a central defender and that search is expected to be the primary focus of the January transfer window.
It was the priority in the summer after the sale of captain Maximilian Kilman to West Ham. No signing was made, however, and following the season-ending injury suffered by Yerson Mosquera, the need is even more pressing now.
But looking more widely at 2025, the background work is ongoing to find replacements for Joao Gomes, Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri in the knowledge that all three are likely to have suitors in the summer.
A successor to Nelson Semedo at right-back is also on the agenda, with the Portugal international currently set to become a free agent next summer.
Are there any players they are already looking at?
In the summer, Wolves worked their way through an extensive list of potential centre-back signings and were unable to do deals for any of them.
Of those players, Igor Julio has made five Premier League starts for Brighton, so is potentially now unavailable; Dara O’Shea signed for Ipswich Town; Nayef Aguerd left West Ham for Real Sociedad; David Carmo joined Nottingham Forest from Porto before being loaned to Olympiacos, and Trevoh Chalobah moved from Chelsea to Crystal Palace.
One of the longer-standing targets, Switzerland international Nico Elvedi, stayed with Borussia Monchengladbach and could still re-emerge as a possibility, even though his attractive summer release clause has now expired.
Who will they be looking to sell?
There are not too many players who Wolves will actively look to move on, although Fabio Silva’s encouraging form on loan at Las Palmas has led to a full debut for Portugal and could finally help Wolves create a market for a player who seems unlikely to play for the club again.
Goncalo Guedes still seems likely to move on, too. He has been welcomed back into the fold this season, but that still feels like a short-term measure for a player who has never really fitted in at Molineux.
But the bigger interest will be on which of their marquee players Wolves choose to cash in on at the end of the season.
With owners Fosun now determined for football operations to be self-funding, it seems inevitable that at least one of Ait-Nouri, Gomes and Cunha will be sold to generate funds for new players.
That is assuming Wolves remain in the Premier League. If not, then many more will inevitably leave.
What moves have they made already?
Head coach Gary O’Neil has spoken recently about how sporting director Matt Hobbs and the recruitment team are working hard on adding a centre-back.
The hope is that Wolves will be able to complete their priority signing early in January, but after the frustrations of the summer, neither O’Neil nor supporters will be taking anything for granted.
Who will make the key decisions over the two windows?
Executive chairman Jeff Shi and owners Fosun will retain the final say on both overall strategy and individual deals, so while Hobbs and O’Neil can line up new players who they feel will benefit the team, they can only plan on using them once Shi has given them the green light.
So O’Neil would do well to avoid repeating his mistake from the summer when he admits he based a gameplan for the season on players he expected to get but never arrived.
Which players’ contracts are expiring? Who is expected to renew?
Semedo, Craig Dawson and Pablo Sarabia all have deals due to expire at the end of this season.
Dawson is likely to be offered a new deal between now and the summer, while Sarabia is widely expected to leave at the end of his deal.
Semedo’s situation is more difficult to read. Wolves would like to keep him but, as one of their highest earners on a salary that the club are no longer handing out, he would need to accept a significant wage cut, which makes an extension hard to agree.
What is their PSR position?
There is unlikely to be a repeat of the 2023 summer fire sale when Wolves needed to bring in significant funds to steer clear of PSR danger and managed to do so thanks largely to the sales of Ruben Neves and Matheus Nunes.
Nowadays, they keep a close eye on the PSR situation and any financial restraints are more to do with Fosun’s desire for footballing self-sufficiency.
What sort of budget do they have?
That will depend almost entirely on who they sell. The days of Fosun injecting significant cash are over, so barring an ownership change, any spending will have to be funded by sales.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
