NHL playoff tiers, buyers and sellers: Where does each team stand at Thanksgiving?

For NHL teams, American Thanksgiving isn’t all about turkey, gravy and Black Friday sales. Just past a quarter way through the regular-season schedule, it’s the point by which general managers traditionally want to know what kind of team they have — and to figure out a course forward based on that.

Last year by this point, seven of the eight eventual postseason teams in the East were already in playoff position, and six of eight were in the West. The rest of the way, only the New York Islanders (who had a .528 points percentage on Turkey Day), Nashville Predators (.444) and Edmonton Oilers (.306) moved into the field, with the Detroit Red Wings (.583), Seattle Kraken (.500) and St. Louis Blues (.583) falling out.

So, is it too early to talk about buyers and sellers with the trade deadline still just over three months away? Or playoff tiers with nearly four and a half months left in the regular season? Maybe … but history says that the trends we’ve seen so far will mostly continue.

To mark the occasion and get a sense of what those trends are, The Athletic asked its NHL staff two questions about each team this week: 1) How confident are you in the team’s playoff chances, on a scale of zero (not happening) to five (it’s a lock)? And 2) Will the team be a buyer or a seller at the deadline?

Here’s what our writers said.

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Anaheim Ducks

Record: 9-9-3
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Analysis: This is where GM Pat Verbeek must have a vision of who will make up his team as it tries to make the leap out of a rebuilding stage into a competitive one. At some point, major selloffs should not be part of their plan. But the Ducks have six impending UFAs on their roster, the two holding the most value being goal-scoring winger Frank Vatrano and shutdown defenseman Brian Dumoulin. Vatrano’s name surfaced at the 2024 deadline, but Verbeek held onto him as he completed a 37-goal career season. He’s started to heat up after being ice-cold the first few weeks. Dumoulin has been a great addition to the Ducks blue line. If he hasn’t already, Verbeek will have to decide if either is worth keeping to help Anaheim take the next step or use them to continue adding futures. — Eric Stephens

Boston Bruins

Record: 11-10-3
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

It’s going to be hard for the Bruins to make up ground from their first 20 games. It does not appear they have enough offensive depth to be a serious playoff contender. Brad Marchand and Trent Frederic are pending unrestricted free agents. If the Bruins can get back high-end futures, they’ll have to consider trading both forwards and accelerating their rebuild. — Fluto Shinzawa

Buffalo Sabres

Record: 11-10-1
Playoff tier: 50-50
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

The Sabres should be an aggressive buyer at the trading deadline as long as they’re still in the playoff hunt. GM Kevyn Adams and coach Lindy Ruff have both said this is a win-now situation. They also have at least $6 million in salary cap space to work with and plenty of prospects and draft picks to use as trade bait. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be willing to acquire an extra player or two to put this team over the top. — Matthew Fairburn

Calgary Flames

Record: 12-7-4
Playoff tier: 50-50
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Flames were written off by many to start the season. But they’re currently in a playoff spot. Optimism says that if their goaltending holds throughout the rest of the year, the Flames could make it to the postseason. And as Darren Dreger of TSN said earlier this week, the Flames might not be as cautious ahead of the deadline. But this status could very much sway down to cautious seller if their goaltending falls off and their scoring issues persist. If the Flames have to sell, it will help with their retool/rebuild anyway. — Julian McKenzie

“He (Conroy) could get aggressive, it all depends on if Calgary can hang in the mix… Conroy and the Calgary Flames could be a bigger player than anticipated on that March 7th trade deadline”

We might be in for another premature end to the rebuild just like 2015…

🎥: TSN pic.twitter.com/rkRvMADUsS

— Robert Munnich (@RingOfFireCGY) November 28, 2024

Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 16-5-1
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Hurricanes are usually very measured in their moves at the deadline. That doesn’t mean they won’t be aggressive if they think the fit is perfect — such as last season when Carolina added Jake Guentzel. Still, the Hurricanes won’t recklessly compromise their future for short-term gains. — Cory Lavalette

Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 8-12-2
Playoff tier: Not happening
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

The Blackhawks will be looking to move whatever they can of their expiring contracts again under Kyle Davidson. There are a handful this season. Taylor Hall is the most high-profile player, but he hasn’t had much production so far. Ryan Donato, Pat Maroon and Craig Smith could also be traded and have all performed relatively well this season. The Blackhawks would likely be willing to eat some of their caps, too. — Scott Powers

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 13-10-0
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Excellent starts by Winnipeg, Dallas and Minnesota have made the playoff race in the Central incredibly competitive, but the Avalanche have an 87 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. Expect Colorado to be buyers at the deadline, especially in the crease if Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen don’t improve before then. The Avs have turned things around with seven wins in their last nine games, but they still have the worst team save percentage in the entire NHL. — Jesse Granger

Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 9-9-3
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

GM Don Waddell is new to the Blue Jackets organization as of last May, so these next few months will be quite informative. He’s learning what his young nucleus is made of, and how best to surround them. Expect more significant changes, especially at the trade deadline. The Blue Jackets have several significant pending UFAs, headlined by defenseman Ivan Provorov, who could bring a first-round draft pick from a contender. The others are forwards Sean Kuraly, Mathieu Olivier, Justin Danforth, James van Riemsdyk, Zach Aston-Reese and Kevin Labanc, plus defensemen Dante Fabbro and Jack Johnson. They won’t all be traded, but Waddell will be busy. — Aaron Portzline

Dallas Stars

Record: 13-8-0
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Stars typically are cautious at the deadline, but last year grabbed the best defensive defenseman on the market in Chris Tanev, and did so without having to give up a first-round pick. It’s easy to envision them trying to bolster their blue line again at the deadline, but they won’t overpay for the privilege because — at least for now — they don’t need to. — Mark Lazerus

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 10-10-2
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

It’s not so much that the Red Wings are off to a slow start, but rather that they haven’t shown much of a path to a possible turnaround. The team’s defense is improved, but Detroit still spends too much time having to defend on most nights, and the offense has taken a significant step back. A strong power play and good goaltending thus far have kept them nominally afloat in the Eastern Conference playoff field, but their five-on-five game just hasn’t been good enough to believe in them actually emerging from that race. Selling at the deadline, then, seems probable. Still, there are only a couple of players on expiring contracts who would be expected to garner much interest. Alex Lyon and Patrick Kane stand out at the top of that list — if Kane wants to move again, that is. — Max Bultman

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 11-9-2
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

The Oilers made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final a few months ago. They have the oldest team in the NHL while having Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at top form. They’re in the league’s worst division. They’ve been trying to accrue salary cap space at almost every turn. The choice to buy at the trade deadline is clear. What’s less obvious is what they’ll use to acquire a player or two. Their prospect pipeline is paper thin and they’ve already dealt their first-round pick, on a conditional basis, to Philadelphia. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman

Florida Panthers

Record: 13-9-1
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Panthers’ recent dip has, at least temporarily, taken them out of the “playoff lock” category, but be honest: Do you really think the defending champs aren’t going to be in the mix come April? We also know GM Bill Zito is always open to improving his team around the margins — and a fresh bottom-sixer wouldn’t hurt — but he’s got well below $1 million in projected space. — Sean Gentille

Los Angeles Kings

Record: 12-8-3
Playoff tier: 3 – 50-50
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

The Kings’ consistency at being inconsistent has been confounding. Being trounced in the third period by San Jose and then locking down Winnipeg for 60 minutes two days later is Example A. They’re in playoff position now and if they manage to be there when Drew Doughty returns for the second half, this could swing Rob Blake to be active if this becomes his final season in the GM chair. They’re in need of an impact winger, particularly one they can plant with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Goaltending could also be a question mark. While there is an appetite from vocal parts of the fan base to sell off veterans, that’s easier said than done as most of their key players still have term on their deals. Vladislav Gavrikov is an impending UFA who has the most value, but he’s also been their best defenseman as Doughty recovers from his broken ankle. — Eric Stephens

Minnesota Wild

Record: 14-4-4
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

If the Wild keep accruing cap space by staying out of LTIR, you can bet a team that has a cap ceiling that’s $15.4 million less than most others will try to add at the deadline if it feels it’s a true contender. As well as the Wild have defended this year and as good as Kirill Kaprizov (35 points) and Matt Boldy (10 points in his past 10 games) have been, generating chances has been a concern. They’re at the bottom of the league in expected goals, so a play-driving top-six forward would be just what the doctor ordered. — Michael Russo

Montreal Canadiens

Record: 8-11-3
Playoff tier: Not happening
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

The Canadiens have four impending unrestricted free agents that could attract some attention at the deadline — David Savard, Jake Evans, Joel Armia and Christian Dvorak — but they are also a team already loaded with draft picks and prospects. Thus, if the return is simply more middling draft picks, they might be tempted to hang on to some of these players to try to finish the season strong. The case of Evans is particularly complicated because there could be some interest in re-signing him. So yes, some or even all of these players might be traded by the deadline, but the sense is the organization won’t necessarily feel obligated to do it. — Arpon Basu

Nashville Predators

Record: 7-12-4
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

GM Barry Trotz has warned publicly about getting his “rebuild plan” going because of this team’s dreadfully disappointing play. But you can’t do all he’s done to load this roster with aging stars and do anything but try to figure it out this season. So he has to go get a legitimate No. 2 center, because Tommy Novak isn’t cutting it. The identity of that player isn’t obvious and a quality add there won’t necessarily fix enough of this team’s long list of ills. But Trotz has to try. — Joe Rexrode

New Jersey Devils

Record: 15-8-2
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Devils are rounding into form nicely with their collection of offseason additions, which included coach Sheldon Keefe. Barring a regression, they’re in a good position to make the playoffs again after a disappointing 2023-24. That means they’ll be buyers. Tom Fitzgerald isn’t afraid to be aggressive, but he already did a lot of his aggressive business over the summer, acquiring Jacob Markstrom and multiple solid free agents. My guess is New Jersey will look to add but likely with upgrades around the edges rather than with a ginormous trade. — Peter Baugh

New York Islanders

Record: 8-10-5
Playoff tier: 50-50
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

It’s logical to think a team that’s going to need to fight to get into the playoffs for a third straight season and currently sits under .500 would sell, especially since the Islanders have some players to sell — Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri foremost among them. But Lou Lamoriello has been holding onto his core Islanders for years, so even at under .500 he may believe this team has something to offer. — Arthur Staple

New York Rangers

Record: 12-8-1
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

The Rangers will be aggressive one way or another. GM Chris Drury made that clear by alerting other executives that he’s open to making moves and mentioning captain Jacob Trouba and longest-tenured player Chris Kreider by name. But barring a major tailspin, New York is going to want to get better before the trade deadline. This is a team with pressure to win now, especially with Igor Shesterkin’s next contract looming over everything, so don’t be surprised if Drury tries to make bold moves. — Peter Baugh

Ottawa Senators

Record: 10-11-1
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

The Senators need to stack up some wins if they want to help their chances of making the playoffs. And with a lack of depth showing on defense already, the Sens could make a move sooner rather than later. If the Sens improve their standing, this could change to “cautious buyer.” But if the Sens continue to trend toward another lost season, they will need to set the table for a significant shock to their system. And offloading assets for picks and prospects. — Julian McKenzie

Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 10-10-3
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

The Metropolitan Division already looks like the haves and have-nots, with the Flyers part of the latter group. Getting back into the playoff race doesn’t seem likely. Further, the Flyers have a handful of players that could be of interest to contenders like Rasmus Ristolainen, Scott Laughton and Morgan Frost. Still, GM Daniel Briere is also surely on the lookout for a center that could play with Matvei Michkov and potentially fit for the long term, too. The Flyers could sell off some pieces while also attempting to fix what is their biggest positional problem. — Kevin Kurz

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 8-12-4
Playoff tier: Not happening
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

The greatest era the Penguins have known is over — at least except for nostalgia. President of hockey operations and GM Kyle Dubas inherited a mess two years ago, had a disastrous first summer, and is well into taking a ticket on any young player who was once a touted prospect. He’s already dealt one veteran, Lars Eller, and is looking to ship out others — notably Marcus Pettersson and Rickard Rakell. Although Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and coach Mike Sullivan are doing their best to prop up an inferior roster, they can’t. The Penguins not only aren’t contenders, they’re barely competitive. They’re headed for the draft lottery. — Rob Rossi

San Jose Sharks

Record: 7-13-5
Playoff tier: Not happening
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

The Sharks have numerous impending UFAs to peddle. But do they want to move all of them? For starters, Mackenzie Blackwood (and even Vitek Vanecek) could certainly be shopped to open a spot for prized goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov to be in San Jose full-time. Veteran right-shot defensemen Cody Ceci and Jan Rutta don’t figure to be long for the Bay Area. Up front, Mikael Granlund, Luke Kunin and Nico Sturm have been effective in their roles and could be useful depth pieces for contenders. The toughest call might be Granlund, who has been a leading player for them since coming to San Jose. Extending him shouldn’t be out of the question but with Macklin Celebrini already their new franchise face and eventual No. 1 center, it still makes sense to see what the trade market brings for the veteran and whether there’s an offer too good to pass up. — Eric Stephens

Seattle Kraken

Record: 11-11-1
Playoff tier: Bubble team
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Kraken have played better hockey lately, but are still toward the bottom of the Pacific Division. Seattle’s biggest issue this season — backup goaltending — is a relatively straightforward fix, but the bigger-picture flaw of its roster, the lack of elite star-level talent, is more complicated. Another layer of complexity is the overall state of the business in the upstart Seattle market. The Kraken have got off to a decent start to their existence, with their magical second season standing out as a high point. Was that a one-off or a real baseline to build on? If Kraken management is going to make the latter case and continue to build inroads in a crowded Seattle sports market, finding a way to succeed this season will be essential. It’s a dynamic that could make them a wild-card buyer, despite Ron Francis’ trademark conservatism, between now and the deadline. — Thomas Drance

St. Louis Blues

Record: 11-12-1
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

The playoffs are a long shot, but with Jim Montgomery now behind the bench, the Blues could put themselves back in contention. They’re carrying a points percentage of .479, which includes two wins under Montgomery. If the offense can get on track, this could be a different team. If the Blues are out of the postseason picture at the deadline, I’d expect them to be cautious sellers. They have a few pieces such as Brandon Saad, Radek Faksa and Nick Leddy who could be dealt, but any other significant moves probably won’t happen until the team’s recent high draft picks are NHL-ready. — Jeremy Rutherford

Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 11-8-2
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Lightning made big offseason swings to keep their playoff window open, and management probably isn’t going to stop anytime soon. Tampa Bay just probably can’t afford to be an aggressive buyer between its limited cap space and trade assets. The team has depleted its prospect pool through years of contention and is already without its 2025 first-rounder. Sure, they can trade picks further out, but those picks are going to get more and more valuable if the Lightning’s long-term trajectory looks suspect. Still, they should be pursuing low-key moves to bolster their depth. — Shayna Goldman

Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 13-7-2
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

The Maple Leafs will — again — have immense pressure on them to finally make a deep run in the postseason. Which means pressure on management to ensure the roster is as strong as possible. The Leafs have a clear need at center. Right now, they have Auston Matthews, 34-year-old John Tavares and a bunch of question marks, including Pontus Holmberg, Max Domi and David Kämpf. What they need is someone capable of playing, at worst, as the team’s No. 3 down the middle. Ideally that player can score a bit and help the cause defensively too. Too much to ask? Maybe. — Jonas Siegel

Utah Hockey Club

Record: 9-10-3
Playoff tier: Long shot
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious seller

Utah’s season hasn’t gone according to forecast. It’s down to a less than 20 percent chance of making the playoffs and is having issues both producing offense and getting enough saves. This isn’t the end of the world — it’s a young team that wasn’t projected to be a Cup contender and has some good prospects coming — so regrouping and selling makes a lot of sense. Utah has useful veteran pending UFAs like Nick Bjugstad, Ian Cole and Karel Vejmelka who could all be in high demand before the deadline, too. — James Mirtle

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 11-7-3
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

This is Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin we’re talking about. Aggressiveness on the trade market for this Canucks management group isn’t just something we’ve seen in the past, it’s the product of a philosophical belief that being active and making changes gives this team a competitive edge. The Canucks are interested in upgrading their back end and are going to want a defender who can be a top-four upgrade over multiple years. The Canucks will do something to boost their roster, perhaps sooner than later but certainly by the deadline. If the club can play the right way more consistently, and if the right piece shakes loose, they could be one of the NHL’s most aggressive buyers. — Thomas Drance

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 14-6-3
Playoff tier: 5 – It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

The Golden Knights are well on their way to their seventh playoff appearance in eight years of existence, and should once again be buyers at the trade deadline. The most likely spot to add is on the wing, but Vegas may not have the assets to be quite as aggressive as it has been in past years. The team is without its first-round pick for the next two drafts, so the addition(s) may not be quite as flashy, but still expect Vegas to add. — Jesse Granger

Washington Capitals

Record: 15-6-1
Playoff tier: Looks like a good bet
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Cautious buyer

The Capitals already have Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie stashed on LTIR, which is a double-edged sword; it allowed them to add big-ticket items during the offseason but also made them ineligible to accrue cap space. Thus, any additions will have to be extremely budget-friendly. The good news, though, is that those summer adds seem to have paid off — this is a playoff-caliber roster without any obvious holes (assuming Alex Ovechkin eventually returns). — Sean Gentille

Winnipeg Jets

Record: 18-5-0
Playoff tier: It’s a lock
Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Kevin Cheveldayoff has shown a willingness to make big moves whenever the Jets have been in contention, notably adding Paul Stastny in 2018, Kevin Hayes in 2019, Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov in 2023, and Sean Monahan, Tyler Toffoli and Colin Miller last season. Now, Winnipeg is at the top of the NHL standings and projects to be able to add over $10 million in contracts on deadline day. Add it all up and it’s easy to see the Jets making moves for center help and/or a big, crease-clearing, veteran defenseman with a legitimate playoff resume. — Murat Ates

Tiers at a glance

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Kavin Mistry / NHLI; Steph Chambers, Derek Cain / Getty Images)