If you’re looking to avoid potentially awkward conversations about politics and current events over Thanksgiving weekend, we have a suggestion: Hey, how about those Big 12 championship game scenarios?
The conference announced this week that 256 possibilities are still on the table.
You could turn it into a game: The first person to figure out how West Virginia makes it wins something!
The final weekend of the college football regular season is here (it goes so fast), and there are stakes everywhere.
The new 12-team College Football Playoff has added another thick layer of intrigue. Without going too deep down various what-if rabbit holes, here’s a user guide by conference to see what’s on the line during rivalry weekend.
The number of teams still alive to reach each conference title game is in parentheses.
American Athletic Conference (2)
Army will play Tulane in the championship game on Dec. 6, with only the site left to be determined. With Tulane’s upset loss to Memphis on Thursday night, Army will host if it beats UTSA on Saturday. If the Black Knights lose, a computer ranking will determine which school will host.
CFP best-case scenario: Tulane, No. 17 in last week’s CFP rankings, was in decent position to be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, but those hopes were all but dashed by Memphis. Army, assuming it beats UTSA, can still be a viable fallback option as a conference champion if things get weird in the Mountain West.
Atlantic Coast Conference (3)
No. 9 SMU has secured a spot in the championship game in its first season as a member of the ACC, meaning the Mustangs have already matched Miami’s number of conference title game appearances.
The sixth-ranked Hurricanes, who entered the ACC in 2004, can join SMU and double their conference championship game appearances by beating Syracuse.
No. 12 Clemson is already in the clubhouse at 7-1 in the conference but needs Miami to lose to go to Charlotte, N.C.
CFP best-case scenario: Dare to dream of three ACC teams in the Playoff, Commissioner Jim Phillips. A Miami-SMU championship game turns out to be just for seeding, and Clemson beats South Carolina on Saturday to slip in as an at-large, taking advantage of an upset to one of the contenders ranked ahead of the Tigers. How ironic would it be if Notre Dame, which has ravaged ACC competition during its scheduling partnership, stumbles at the finish line against USC and opens the door for the ACC?
Big Ten (4)
It took a couple of days for the Big Ten office to nail it down, but No. 1 Oregon clinched a title game spot after beating Wisconsin.
No. 2 Ohio State will get a rematch with the Ducks, who beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in Eugene in October, if it beats Michigan. If the Buckeyes lose a fourth straight game to the Wolverines, Penn State gets into the title game by beating Maryland. Also, Godspeed, Ryan Day, in that scenario.
If Ohio State and Penn State lose to three-touchdown underdogs, Indiana goes to Indianapolis as long as it manages to win the Old Oaken Bucket game against Purdue. The Hoosiers are 28.5-point favorites.
CFP best-case scenario: The big four win this weekend, and then it’s just a matter of seeding on selection Sunday.
Big 12 (9)
The conference that promised balance and depth delivered big time.
Nine teams are tied for first or second place, with No. 16 Arizona State (9-2), No. 18 Iowa State (9-2), No. 19 BYU (9-2) and No. 25 Colorado (8-3) all at the top at 6-2.
There is a scenario where the Big 12 ends in an eight-way tie for first place and the championship game matches Baylor and Texas Tech. Trust us on this.
Meanwhile, chaos agent Kansas, which has beaten three straight ranked contenders, is out of the mix.
More simply, if Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado win out, the Sun Devils and Cyclones play in the conference title game. Arizona State is a big favorite against rival Arizona, but Iowa State faces Kansas State. An Iowa State loss with the others winning out sets up an Arizona State-BYU rematch in Arlington, Texas, on Dec. 8.
For those hoping to get coach Deion Sanders, Heisman Trophy contender Travis Hunter and Colorado into the title game, the chances aren’t great without a lot of help. The Buffs don’t do well in most tiebreakers.
CFP best-case scenario: Commissioner Brett Yormark is not happy about it, but this is a one-bid league going to the conference champion. The good news is Tulane’s loss on Thanksgiving night likely means the Big 12 doesn’t have to be concerned about the worst-case scenario: being a no-bid league.
Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios, via the conference. pic.twitter.com/ZXxLCi69Nj
— Justin Williams (@Williams_Justin) November 24, 2024
Conference USA (4)
Welcome back to championship football, Rich Rodriguez. The former West Virginia, Michigan and Arizona coach has Jacksonville State locked into hosting the CUSA title game, having turned quarterback Tyler Huff and running back Tre Stewart into a modern-day version of Mountaineers greats Pat White and Steve Slaton.
Liberty goes back to the title game for a second consecutive season by beating Sam Houston on Friday. Sam Houston goes to Jacksonville State with a win over Liberty and a Western Kentucky loss to JSU.
Jacksonville State-Western Kentucky would play two weeks in a row if WKU wins and Liberty loses.
CFP best-case scenario: Not applicable.
MAC (4)
There’s a low probability of MACtion breaking out this weekend.
Ohio goes to Detroit by beating Ball State and faces the winner of Miami-Bowling Green.
If Ball State pulls the upset — the Cardinals are 15.5-point underdogs — it opens the possibility of Buffalo sneaking in.
CFP best-case scenario: Not applicable.
Mountain West (3)
No. 11 Boise State is in the conference title game for the seventh time in eight years and will host.
No. 22 UNLV will be the Broncos’ opponent if it beats rival Nevada, setting up a rematch of an excellent regular-season meeting between the Rebels and Ashton Jeanty’s crew.
Colorado State is in if the Rams win and UNLV loses.
CFP best-case scenario: A championship game matchup between 11-1 Boise State and 10-2 UNLV is a winner-goes-to-the-CFP game no matter what happens elsewhere, with the Broncos in position to get a bye. Not bad for a league that was staring at realignment extinction in September.
SEC (3)
No. 7 Georgia will play in the conference title game for the fourth straight season against the winner of No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M. Simple.
CFP best-case scenario: Not so simple. First of all, the SEC needs to avoid the upset bug that befell the conference’s CFP contenders last week when three ranked teams lost to unranked opponents and left the league with only three teams in Playoff position.
It might be best if the Aggies win out, securing a bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions while Texas, Georgia and Tennessee remain in the bracket. Probably.
No. 13 Alabama, No. 14 Ole Miss and No. 15 South Carolina are positioned to jump back in — probably in that order — if things get weird across the country. Somehow, the SEC might have to make do with only three CFP teams. Surely, that will be met with measured disappointment in Birmingham.
Sun Belt (4)
God bless the Sun Belt, the only remaining conference with divisions.
Marshall wins the East by beating James Madison or with a Georgia Southern loss to Appalachian State. Flip those results and Georgia Southern wins the East.
Louisiana wins the West by beating sliding Louisiana-Monroe. A loss by the Ragin’ Cajuns opens the door for South Alabama to win the division by beating Texas State on Friday.
CFP best-case scenario: If all the Mountain West and AAC contenders lose this weekend, Louisiana (9-2) can go into championship weekend with a chance to at least make a case to be the highest-ranked G5 champ.
No. 5 Notre Dame
If the Fighting Irish beat USC, they should be comfortably in the CFP field as a first-round host — remember, only conference champions can earn a bye. If they lose at the Los Angeles Coliseum, that early-season loss to Northern Illinois is going to become a lot less forgivable.
(Photo of Rocco Becht: Nirmalendu Majumdar / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
