This past offseason, I laid out team-by-team cap space projections for the 2025 NBA offseason, and the largest takeaway was how few franchises will have real spending power even if the 2025-26 salary cap rises a full 10 percent from this season as expected due to the new media-rights deal. Unsurprisingly, that lack of flexibility comes from a significant portion of the league’s players already being under contract, and that plays a massive part in what looks to be a very weak 2025 free agent class.
Some of the highest-profile players who can hit the open market appear unlikely to change teams. LeBron James took less than his maximum to stay with the Los Angeles Lakers over the summer and can decline a player option to bump back up for 2025-26. Kyrie Irving faces a somewhat similar situation, as the Dallas Mavericks seem like the strong front-runner to retain his services if Irving declines his player option to sign a multi-year deal. It is likely a similar story with James Harden and the LA Clippers, though he is further down the pecking order at this point.
Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat appear to be playing out this season without an extension (though he can make himself eligible at any point by declining his 2025-26 player option), so there is a chance he could join a new team via free agency or trade between now and then. Similarly, Brandon Ingram and the New Orleans Pelicans have not agreed to an extension, and the Pelicans have significant salary commitments outside of Ingram. Julius Randle seems likely at the moment to re-sign with the Minnesota Timberwolves, as they just acquired the three-time All-Star a couple of months ago, but continued spending concerns and/or a rougher than expected season could cause either side to look elsewhere.
At one point, Fred VanVleet brought a fascinating element to the 2025 offseason because the Houston Rockets declining their team option on him was a key part of how Rafael Stone could open up cap space. That plan came off the board when they agreed to extensions with Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, so now the most likely outcome is the Rockets declining that option to give the 30-year old VanVleet a longer commitment at a somewhat smaller annual salary.
All of those expectations surrounding potential free agents with star or all-star potential makes it tough for general managers to make major renovations to their rosters via outright signings or sign-and-trades.
That being said, there are absolutely other starting-caliber players who’ll matter and will be on the market, and the head of that list for me is Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner.
Turner credibly spaces the floor as a shooter, taking a whopping 5.6 3-pointers per 36 minutes last season and making 36 percent or more of them in both 2023-24 and 2022-23. That makes life much easier offensively for Turner’s teams whether that comes from bringing the big man out on pick-and-pops or holding his man away from the basket as a shooter not in the action.
What has made Turner truly special at times in his career is combining that shooting with being the anchor of a solid defense but his once-dominant rim protection has diminished somewhat over the last few years, though another team could believe that being in a new ecosystem may lead to the revival of a true NBA unicorn.
Another reason Turner could be a key factor in 2025 free agency is that he turns 29 shortly before next offseason, so the team that signs him should get the remainder of his prime but not many post-prime years, taking some of the risk out of the contract. He also may be more feasible to sign because the Pacers are only about $20 million below the luxury tax line after retaining Obi Toppin and Andrew Nembhard this offseason. Paying Turner market rate likely requires shedding salary or paying the tax, opening the door for other suitors to work their way into the conversation to sign him outright or negotiate a sign-and-trade.
Elsewhere on the center market, Brook Lopez developed into a center who occupies that rare niche, too, but he turns 37 next April, and so teams will be worried about his level of play and health moving forward even if he is interested in leaving the Bucks. Lopez’s teammate Khris Middleton faces age and health concerns too. While he turns a comparatively spry 34 next summer, Middleton had surgery on both ankles over the offseason and played just 88 games combined over the last two seasons. Still, even a limited Middleton could elevate several rosters, so the Bucks have another tough negotiation if Middleton declines his $34 million player option.
Staying with the forwards, Kelly Oubre Jr. would be eligible for a real raise with the Philadelphia 76ers since they will have early Bird rights, though he has to play well enough to earn that kind of money, while Dorian Finney-Smith will likely be on a new team by next summer if the Brooklyn Nets commit to their fire sale as many expect. Both have player options for 2025-26 and Oubre seems more likely to choose free agency, though both could prefer a long-term deal to their option.
The guard line is fascinating because, outside of the players discussed above, there are several talents who can help a team but none who are reliable generators of high-level offense for themselves and others. Alex Caruso may be the poster child for this, as the newly minted member of the Thunder is arguably the best guard defender in the NBA but cannot create on-ball and only flashed consistent volume shooting for the first time in his career last season, which may have been the anomaly. Still, he would have a ton of suitors if Sam Presti did not retain him as anticipated. Bruce Brown is a lesser version of that player type (though younger than Caruso by about three years).
Enigmatic point guard D’Angelo Russell chose to pick up an $18.7 million player option rather than become a free agent in July. That offers a clear indication of his market over the summer, and the beginning of his 2024-25 campaign with the Lakers has not gone his way (Russell was moved to the bench after starting the season’s first eight games), so things may get even thornier for the 2015 No. 2 pick. Tyus Jones took less money to play for the Suns this year in hopes of parlaying that opportunity into a better long-term deal than he had on the table in 2024. His younger brother, Tre Jones, will hit the open market for the first time after a year backing up fellow 2025 free agent (and soon-to-be 40-year-old) Chris Paul. The Washington Wizards’ Malcolm Brogdon only recently returned after having thumb surgery but will generate interest, likely as a backup point guard.
Other players certainly will step up over the year and create markets for themselves as Derrick Jones Jr. did last year with the Mavericks. Maybe Sam Merrill plays a key part in a huge Cavaliers season, Dennis Schröder re-establishes himself as a starting point guard and/or Nickeil Alexander-Walker shows he can thrive in a larger role. Those stories seem to happen each season and change the dynamics of the offseason, particularly if someone pushes beyond the midlevel exception range to change the thinking of cap space teams.
For the sake of completeness, restricted free agents do not fit the conversation with unrestricted guys because matching rights functionally mean the only way they change teams that offseason is through the active participation of the team holding their rights: refusing to make a qualifying offer, deciding not to match an offer sheet or negotiating a sign-and-trade. Jonathan Kuminga and Josh Giddey, in particular, will be fascinating stories of the 2025 offseason but occupy a different place in the discussions for cap space teams.
Sign up to get The Bounce, the essential NBA newsletter from Zach Harper and The Athletic staff, delivered free to your inbox.
(Photo of Myles Turner and Jimmy Butler: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
