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NHL 4 Nations Face-Off: Which Winnipeg Jets will make their respective teams?

29 November 2024Last Update :
NHL 4 Nations Face-Off: Which Winnipeg Jets will make their respective teams?

Mark Scheifele has taken 18 faceoffs in five games since fighting Aaron Ekblad in Florida two weeks ago.

This has led to two kinds of speculation. One group of fans wonders out loud if Scheifele is hurt. Another wonders if the 31-year-old Kitchener, Ont., product with 26 points in his first 23 games is auditioning for Team Canada.

Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off team is set to be so deep down the middle that reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon is expected to start at right wing. Scheifele is not in that class of centreman, nor is he Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby or Brayden Point, but he has a legitimate case for Team Canada consideration. There are a lot of lenses through which he could help, and right wing makes sense for most of them.

I still think Scheifele is playing hurt. If that is the case, I’m guessing the Winnipeg Jets’ medical team has assured him his injury won’t get worse — and I imagine that playing for Team Canada provides extra incentive. In the short run, that makes perfect sense. Rosters are due this Monday afternoon, with official announcements to follow Wednesday.

Scheifele isn’t the only Jets player with a strong case to represent his country this February.

Winnipeg has two American locks — Connor Hellebuyck and Kyle Connor — and star Canadian defenceman Josh Morrissey seems like an obvious Canadian selection. There’s also an outside shot of Canada opting for a shutdown fourth line, opening consideration for Adam Lowry.

Which Jets players will make their respective teams? What roles will be available to them, and when Monday’s deadline comes and goes, will Scheifele’s push have been worth it?

Team USA

Candidate No. 1: Connor Hellebuyck

The best case to make it: Hellebuyck could be the best goaltender in the world. Limit your sample to clear-cut starters — goalies who have played at least eight games this season — and Hellebuyck has the second-best save percentage (.928) and the second-best goals-against average (2.11), and he is first in goals saved above expected (17.7). He’s also the defending Vezina Trophy winner and one of only two active goaltenders to have won that Trophy twice (Sergei Bobrovsky is the other).

It’s also worth noting that Hellebuyck owns the title for most goals above expected by any goaltender in any game this season, and he did it against Team USA general manager Bill Guerin against the Minnesota Wild this week. Guerin was seen chatting with Hellebuyck outside the Jets dressing room after that game, and it’s reasonable to assume their conversation was about Team USA.

The best case to miss it: Are you a Jets fan, hoping to keep Hellebuyck rested for the playoffs? Perhaps you cheer for Team Canada and want to put your thumb on the scale, hoping Canada takes home the gold. Otherwise, there is no case for Hellebuyck to be left off Team USA.

He’s the Americans’ most likely starter. If you’re a Jets fan, you might have already made this point at a recent home game:

Candidate No. 2: Kyle Connor

The best case to make it: Connor is a unique offensive talent, and there are few better finishers from any country. That’s particularly clear now, with Connor tied with Cole Caufield for the most goals (13) by an American skater. He’s second to Jack Eichel in points, and if you extend the sample to last season, Connor is one of only seven American forwards who have scored at a point per game or better.

He’s also a pure winger who does part of his offseason training in Michigan with top American centres like Jack Hughes and Dylan Larkin. Connor and Larkin were teammates with Belle Tire for multiple seasons; that doesn’t guarantee chemistry, but it’s one of many connections Connor has on the American roster.

Forget the numbers and backstory, though. Connor’s best case to make Team USA is that he finishes plays that even the world’s best players struggle with.

The best case to miss it: There have been several seasons and stretches when Connor’s defensive impact has let the air out of his offence. He’s had moments in his career where he’s been something of an “empty calories” scorer, getting outscored by 13 goals from 2018-19 through 2021-22 despite his brilliant offence.

That hasn’t been the case this season. No, Connor is not a perfect defensive player — and yes, he struggles at times to get the puck out under pressure — but his commitment to back pressure has been more than enough to help him outscore his opponents at the other end of the rink. He’s a bona fide top-six wing on Team USA and one of many power-play options at the Americans’ disposal.

Honorable mention: Neal Pionk, who is third in points among American defencemen.

Team Canada

Candidate No. 1: Josh Morrissey

The best case to make it: Morrissey is one of the world’s best offensive defencemen, second only to Cale Makar in point production among Canadian defencemen this season. If you add last year to the sample, Morrissey is still third, with Evan Bouchard leapfrogging, but Morrissey reclaims second place if you add his 76-point 2022-23 explosion. We might not talk about him enough, which seems hard to believe.

It’s not as though Morrissey is Winnipeg’s unheralded secret anymore, either. He finished seventh in 2024 Norris Trophy voting (third among Canadians) after finishing fifth in 2023 (and second among Canadians). And Morrissey has become a better defender since his career year, with improved defensive metrics making 2023-24 an even more impressive season for him.

It’s hard for me to see a world in which Morrissey is left off Team Canada.

The best case to miss it: If you look through the right lens, Morrissey’s skill set could be seen as redundant. Makar has already been named to the team, and competition for a “mobile, great offensive defenceman who defends well too” comes in the form of Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, Dougie Hamilton and Brandon Montour. Canada could pick Makar to anchor the top pair, run Vegas Golden Knights teammates Theodore and Pietrangelo together on its second pair, and then go in a more physical direction with somebody like MacKenzie Weegar on its third pair.

I don’t think there’s enough competition in that group or beyond it to justify leaving Morrissey off Team Canada. I’m just trying to squint in search of it for this argument. Consider as well that Morrissey and longtime partner Dylan DeMelo have been outshot as a pairing at five-on-five this season after years of controlling flow-of-play metrics. If you blame Morrissey for that, perhaps there is a crack in his case to make Team Canada.

Candidate No. 2: Mark Scheifele

The best case to make it: Scheifele’s 26 points in 23 games rank eighth among Canadian forwards to start the season. He’s clear of surefire roster players like Crosby and Point, clear of bubble players like Sam Bennett and Anthony Cirelli, and clear of former Olympians like John Tavares.

Scheifele has a strong playoff resume with 38 points in 42 games, a slightly better production rate than his 743 points in 820 regular-season games. Scheifele was a driving force behind Winnipeg’s 2018 run to the conference final; fans with good memories remember the 14 goals he scored in 17 playoff games that year. This followed Scheifele’s 2017 performance for Canada at the Men’s World Championships, where he scored 8 points in 10 games en route to a silver medal.

Scheifele has a realistic shot to make Team Canada. He’s known as a big-game player, has represented his country before and is off to a scorching-hot offensive start, whether he’s playing hurt or not.

The best case to miss it: Scheifele’s defensive chops fall short of Canada’s other forwards. Team Canada could play MacKinnon, Sam Reinhart, Mark Stone and Mitch Marner down the right side without missing an offensive beat. Meanwhile, all of those players have better underlying defensive numbers than Scheifele — and established two-way reputations, too.

There is also the matter of Scheifele’s potential injury. Even though he managed a hat trick in Winnipeg’s rematch with the Florida Panthers last Tuesday, Scheifele seems to be playing through pain and deliberately avoiding the faceoff circle.

Consider the goal Winnipeg gave up against Minnesota earlier this week. Scheifele was caught for an icing toward the end of a shift with Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti, two wingers with matching career 34 percent faceoff win percentages. He didn’t have his frequent linemate, team-leading 61.2 percent faceoff man Gabriel Vilardi, to take the draw. If Scheifele had been deferring to Vilardi by way of audition, then this was the moment to step in, win a draw and get the Jets out of trouble. Ehlers lost the draw, Marcus Johansson got a shot on goal, and Jake Middleton beat Scheifele to the rebound.

Recall that Scheifele has taken only 18 faceoffs in his past five games. He has won only seven of them (38.9 percent) despite averaging better than 50 percent throughout a full season. It’s also worth noting that he took at least 18 faceoffs in 11 of his first 17 games — this is a highly unusual stretch of play for him.

Scheifele likely won’t be lining up at right wing to audition for Team Canada. I don’t think the Jets or any NHL club would entertain the idea of a star player playing out of position to better prepare for a midseason tournament. There’s a chance he’s fighting his way through an upper-body injury with Monday’s deadline for Team Canada selection in mind.

Candidate No. 3: Adam Lowry

The best case to make it: Lowry finished seventh in Selke Trophy voting last year, earning league-wide acclaim as one of the NHL’s top defensive centres. His shutdown role in Winnipeg is well known around the league, and his results are obvious by eye and analytics alike. The Jets’ line of Lowry, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton has outscored its opponents 13-3 this season and 36-18 going back to 2023-24.

He also has a reputation for raising his game in the playoffs.

The best case to miss it: There are two compelling reasons to leave Lowry off Team Canada’s roster. The first is that most Canadians remember the inclusion of Rob Zamuner on Team Canada’s roster for the 1998 Olympics in Nagano. Team Canada GM Bobby Clarke defended that decision by celebrating Zamuner’s (legitimate, real) defensive ability and penalty-killing acumen. In hindsight, it seems like an overreaction to Canada’s inability to protect a lead against Team USA in the 1996 World Cup of Hockey.

Zamuner played well in the tournament but became a symbol of Team Canada’s mistakes after it failed to medal despite being thought of as a favourite for gold. Kris Draper didn’t receive the same kind of criticism when picked as an option for the 2006 team that also failed to medal — Canadian history pins the “don’t take a defensive forward” lesson on Zamuner alone — but the outcome was the same. Gold medals won in 2002, 2010 and 2014 are attributed in part to taking the best players available, regardless of role. Even if one can poke holes in that theory — shutdown centreman John Madden won gold with Team Canada at the 2004 World Cup of Hockey — the avoidance of role players appears to be an accepted truism in Canadian hockey.

The second reason for Lowry to be left off the roster is Canada’s sheer depth of talent. Star forwards such as Mark Stone, Sam Reinhart and Brayden Point are strong two-way players. Mitch Marner kills penalties. Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper has Anthony Cirelli at his disposal nightly.

Canada has the depth to construct competitive “A” and “B” teams. If Lowry makes it, it will be because Cooper and company skip over a long list of quality players in search of his specific version of tenacious defending.

Honourable mention: Gabriel Vilardi, whose 17 points in 23 games and power-play wizardry might earn him a shot at Canada’s aforementioned “B” team.

(Photo of Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor: Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)

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